Game Information:
Date: Friday, December 8, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Television: BSFL and BSDET
Betting Odds:
Spread: Magic -11.5
Over/Under: 229.5
Top 5 Successful NBA Betting Models:
ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI): Magic 72.9%
FiveThirtyEight CARMELO Rating: Magic 78%
Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS): Magic 4.42
HOOPSPRO Report: Magic 119.3 – 107.9
VSiN’s Prediction: Magic -12
BetQL and Sportsline Models:
BetQL: Magic -11.5
Sportsline: Magic -12
Average Final Score Prediction:
Based on the top 5 successful NBA betting models, the average final score prediction is:
Magic: 118.8
Pistons: 107.5
Pythagorean Theorem Plus Strength of Schedule:
Using the Pythagorean theorem, the expected final score is:
Magic: 118.1
Pistons: 108.4
However, when factoring in strength of schedule, the predicted score becomes:
Magic: 119.5
Pistons: 107.1
Key Player Injuries:
Magic:
Kevon Harris (out)
Markelle Fultz (out)
Wendell Carter Jr. (out)
Jonathan Isaac (questionable)
Jalen Suggs (questionable)
Pistons:
Jalen Duren (out)
Monte Morris (out)
Joe Harris (questionable)
Jared Rhoden (questionable)
Trends:
The Magic are 15-6 against the spread this season.
The Pistons are 7-10 against the spread this season.
The Magic are 7-2 against the spread at home this season.
The Pistons are 3-7 against the spread on the road this season.
The Magic are heavily favored in this matchup, and for good reason. They have a better overall record and are playing at home. However, the absence of several key players, including Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr., could create an opportunity for the Pistons.
Final Score Prediction:
Based on the current information, here are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Magic with all players healthy:
Magic: 123
Pistons: 105
Scenario 2: Magic with several players out:
Magic: 116
Pistons: 112
Combined Pick:
Taking an average of the models’ picks and our pick, the final combined pick for the game is:
Magic: 119.3
Pistons: 108.8
This suggests a comfortable victory for the Magic, but the Pistons have the potential to keep it close if the Magic are missing key players. The status of Jonathan Isaac and Jalen Suggs for the Magic will be crucial in determining the final outcome.
Additional Considerations:
The availability of Joe Harris for the Pistons could significantly impact their shooting ability.
The Pistons have been competitive in recent games, despite their record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games.
The Magic’s winning streak has been fueled by their strong defense, which ranks 7th in the league in points allowed.
Final Thoughts:
While the Magic are the clear favorites, the Pistons have the potential to keep it close if they can take advantage of the Magic’s injuries. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the performance of the Magic’s key players and the Pistons’ ability to contain their offense.
Pick: Take the Magic -11.5 tonight **WINNER**