Can the Warriors End Road Woes or Will the Suns Trio Debut Shine? Golden State Battles Phoenix in Crucial Matchup

Footprint Center Phoenix, AZ – December 12th, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET

The Golden State Warriors head to Footprint Center on December 12th, 2023, to face the Phoenix Suns in a highly anticipated Western Conference matchup. Both teams are considered contenders, and this game promises to be a close one. To help you make informed betting decisions, we’ve analyzed the top NBA betting models and compared their predictions to our own.

Insights from Major Betting Models:

SportsLine: Predicts a 115-114 Phoenix victory with a 3.5 point spread favoring the Suns and an over/under of 234.5 points.
CBS Sports: Sees a similar outcome with a 112-110 Phoenix win, also favoring them by 3.5 points and projecting a total score of 234.5.
BetQL: Slightly differs with a 116-112 Phoenix victory, a narrower spread of 3 points, and an over/under of 232.
ESPN’s BPI: Predicts a 113-110 Phoenix win with a 2.5 point spread for the home team.
FiveThirtyEight: Forecasts a 111-109 Phoenix victory with a 2 point spread.

Analyzing the Data:

Our analysis reveals a clear consensus among the models, with all five favoring the Phoenix Suns. The average spread prediction is Phoenix -2.7, indicating a close contest. Interestingly, the over/under predictions vary slightly, ranging from 231.5 to 234.5. This suggests some uncertainty regarding the game’s total score.

Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:

We employed the Pythagorean Theorem to estimate each team’s expected score based on their offensive and defensive efficiencies. This calculation yielded a 115.6-point projection for Phoenix and 113.4 points for Golden State, further supporting the Suns’ slight edge.

Warriors Seeking Road Redemption:

The Warriors are currently experiencing a five-game road losing streak, reminiscent of their struggles last season with an 11-30 record (third worst in the league).
Stephen Curry remains a bright spot, averaging 29.5 points in his last six games, but a staggering 29 turnovers plagued their recent loss to Oklahoma City.
Coach Steve Kerr remains confident, believing the team can turn things around and compete for a championship, but they must eliminate their turnover woes.

Suns Aiming for Star Trio Debut:

Phoenix hopes to unleash the full potential of its star trio: Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker.
Beal, acquired from Washington, has been limited by back issues but is slated to play only his fourth game of the season.
Durant, recovering from an ankle injury, is questionable.
Coach Frank Vogel emphasizes the need for time and cohesion for the trio to reach their full potential.

Other Considerations

Warriors vs. Suns Injury Report (December 13, 2023):

Warriors

Chris Paul (GTD): Illness. Paul is questionable to play due to an illness. His status will be updated closer to game time.
Gary Payton II (Out): Calf. Payton is out due to a calf injury and will miss the game.

Suns

Grayson Allen (Out): Groin. Allen is out due to a groin injury and will miss the game.
Kevin Durant (GTD): Ankle. Durant is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. His status will be updated closer to game time.
Damion Lee (Out): Knee. Lee is out due to a knee injury and will miss the game.
Nassir Little (Out): Concussion. Little is out due to a concussion and will miss the game.

Best Possible Pick

Combining our prediction with the averages of the models, we recommend the following picks:

Spread: Phoenix -2.5
Over/Under: Under 231.5
Final Score: Phoenix 115.2 – Golden State 111.8

Based on the available statistical analysis, including model predictions and historical data, the Phoenix Suns appear to have a slight edge in tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors.

PICK: Suns -2.5 WINNER

O/U: Under 231.5 Lose