Can the Warriors End Road Woes or Will the Suns Trio Debut Shine? Golden State Battles Phoenix in Crucial Matchup
Footprint Center Phoenix, AZ – December 12th, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET
The Golden State Warriors head to Footprint Center on December 12th, 2023, to face the Phoenix Suns in a highly anticipated Western Conference matchup. Both teams are considered contenders, and this game promises to be a close one. To help you make informed betting decisions, we’ve analyzed the top NBA betting models and compared their predictions to our own.
Insights from Major Betting Models:
- SportsLine: Predicts a 115-114 Phoenix victory with a 3.5 point spread favoring the Suns and an over/under of 234.5 points.
- CBS Sports: Sees a similar outcome with a 112-110 Phoenix win, also favoring them by 3.5 points and projecting a total score of 234.5.
- BetQL: Slightly differs with a 116-112 Phoenix victory, a narrower spread of 3 points, and an over/under of 232.
- ESPN’s BPI: Predicts a 113-110 Phoenix win with a 2.5 point spread for the home team.
- FiveThirtyEight: Forecasts a 111-109 Phoenix victory with a 2 point spread.
Analyzing the Data:
Our analysis reveals a clear consensus among the models, with all five favoring the Phoenix Suns. The average spread prediction is Phoenix -2.7, indicating a close contest. Interestingly, the over/under predictions vary slightly, ranging from 231.5 to 234.5. This suggests some uncertainty regarding the game’s total score.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:
We employed the Pythagorean Theorem to estimate each team’s expected score based on their offensive and defensive efficiencies. This calculation yielded a 115.6-point projection for Phoenix and 113.4 points for Golden State, further supporting the Suns’ slight edge.
Warriors Seeking Road Redemption:
- The Warriors are currently experiencing a five-game road losing streak, reminiscent of their struggles last season with an 11-30 record (third worst in the league).
- Stephen Curry remains a bright spot, averaging 29.5 points in his last six games, but a staggering 29 turnovers plagued their recent loss to Oklahoma City.
- Coach Steve Kerr remains confident, believing the team can turn things around and compete for a championship, but they must eliminate their turnover woes.
Suns Aiming for Star Trio Debut:
- Phoenix hopes to unleash the full potential of its star trio: Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker.
- Beal, acquired from Washington, has been limited by back issues but is slated to play only his fourth game of the season.
- Durant, recovering from an ankle injury, is questionable.
- Coach Frank Vogel emphasizes the need for time and cohesion for the trio to reach their full potential.
Other Considerations
Warriors vs. Suns Injury Report (December 13, 2023):
Warriors
- Chris Paul (GTD): Illness. Paul is questionable to play due to an illness. His status will be updated closer to game time.
- Gary Payton II (Out): Calf. Payton is out due to a calf injury and will miss the game.
Suns
- Grayson Allen (Out): Groin. Allen is out due to a groin injury and will miss the game.
- Kevin Durant (GTD): Ankle. Durant is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. His status will be updated closer to game time.
- Damion Lee (Out): Knee. Lee is out due to a knee injury and will miss the game.
- Nassir Little (Out): Concussion. Little is out due to a concussion and will miss the game.
Best Possible Pick
Combining our prediction with the averages of the models, we recommend the following picks:
- Spread: Phoenix -2.5
- Over/Under: Under 231.5
- Final Score: Phoenix 115.2 – Golden State 111.8
Based on the available statistical analysis, including model predictions and historical data, the Phoenix Suns appear to have a slight edge in tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors.
PICK: Suns -2.5 WINNER
O/U: Under 231.5 Lose
