Game Information:
Date: Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Television: TNT and SportsNet LA
Betting Odds:
Spread: Mavericks +2.5
Over/Under: 232.5
Top 5 Successful NBA Betting Models:
ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI): Lakers 62.7%
FiveThirtyEight CARMELO Rating: Lakers 59%
Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS): Lakers 3.2
HOOPSPRO Report: Mavericks 114.3 – 113.2
VSiN’s Prediction: Lakers -1
BetQL and Sportsline Models:
BetQL: Mavericks +2.5
Sportsline: Mavericks -2.2
Average Final Score Prediction:
Based on the top 5 successful NBA betting models, the average final score prediction is:
Lakers: 114.6
Mavericks: 113.8
Pythagorean Theorem Plus Strength of Schedule:
Using the Pythagorean theorem, the expected final score is:
Lakers: 113.4
Mavericks: 116.2
However, when factoring in strength of schedule, the predicted score becomes:
Lakers: 113.9
Mavericks: 115.8
Key Player Injuries:
Lakers:
LeBron James (questionable)
Anthony Davis (questionable)
Jarred Vanderbilt (questionable)
Gabe Vincent (out)
Jalen Hood-Schifino (out)
Mavericks:
Kyrie Irving (questionable)
Tim Hardaway Jr. (questionable)
Derrick Jones Jr. (questionable)
Grant Williams (questionable)
Maxi Kleber (questionable)
Josh Green (out)
Trends:
The Lakers are 11-12 against the spread this season.
The Mavericks are 12-10 against the spread this season.
The Lakers are 4-5 against the spread on the road this season.
The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread at home this season.
The Mavericks are favored in this matchup, despite missing several key players. The Lakers are also dealing with injuries, including potentially LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, the Lakers have been playing better basketball in recent weeks, winning three of their last four games.
This matchup between two of the NBA’s most storied franchises promises to be a close and exciting one. Both teams are currently in playoff position in the Western Conference and boast some of the league’s best talent. However, both teams are also dealing with significant injuries, which could have a major impact on the outcome of the game.
Final Score Prediction:
Based on the current information, here are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Both teams with stars:
Mavericks: 118
Lakers: 114
Scenario 2: Both teams with significant absences:
Mavericks: 112
Lakers: 110
Combined Pick:
Taking an average of the models’ picks and our pick, the final combined pick for the game is:
Mavericks: 115.8
Lakers: 113.9
This suggests a close victory for the Mavericks, but the Lakers have the potential to pull off the upset if their stars are healthy and playing well. The availability of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.
Additional Considerations:
The Mavericks have a strong offensive identity, led by Luka Doncic.
The Lakers have a more balanced offense, with contributions from several players.
Strengths:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, Christian Wood, strong home record.
Lakers: LeBron James (if healthy), Anthony Davis (if healthy), size and depth.
Weaknesses:
Mavericks: Lack of depth, inconsistent defense, prone to turnovers.
Lakers: Injuries, lack of shooting, inconsistency on both ends of the court.
X-Factors:
The availability of LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the Lakers.
Pick: Take the Mavericks -2 points tonight. ***LOSS***