When the San Francisco Giants head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs on Monday, May 5, 2025, the expectations for a low-scoring game are misleading. With the projected run total set at 7.5, this game is shaping up to be a prime candidate for a high-scoring contest based on pitching matchups, offensive momentum, injuries, and situational trends.
Let’s take a deep dive into both teams, evaluate key player performances, and explore why expecting more than 7.5 total runs is a smart and calculated move.
San Francisco Giants: Inconsistent but Dangerous Offensively
The Giants enter this matchup sitting just below the .500 mark with a 17-18 record. While their season has been a rollercoaster, recent offensive surges have kept them competitive. This is a team with explosive potential at the plate. They are averaging just over four runs per game and have begun to show signs of breaking out more consistently.
Matt Chapman has provided power in the middle of the lineup, while Heliot Ramos and Willy Adames have been key contributors in recent weeks. Adames, in particular, is heating up, launching a pair of home runs in his last few appearances and adding a level of clutch hitting that has sparked rallies. Overall, the Giants’ lineup has depth and versatility, which is crucial when facing a left-handed starter like Matthew Boyd.
Defensively and on the mound, the Giants have been less convincing. The bullpen has been shaky, and outside of Logan Webb, the rotation has struggled with consistency and command. This directly increases the likelihood of opponents capitalizing on scoring opportunities, especially when games get late.
Chicago Cubs: Steady Offense and Strong at Home
The Cubs are having a solid season with a 21-14 record, and they’ve been particularly strong at home. Wrigley Field has long been known as a venue where the ball carries, and the Cubs know how to take advantage. They’re averaging 4.5 runs per game, and their lineup has proven dangerous across the board.
Ian Happ continues to be a key figure, combining power with situational hitting. Seiya Suzuki brings balance and reliability, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has recently injected excitement with a memorable three-run homer. Their ability to score in different ways — through power, speed, and situational play — makes them a threat from top to bottom.
On the mound, the Cubs have seen a few setbacks. Injuries to key starters like Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele have placed added pressure on their bullpen. This creates vulnerability, especially if Matthew Boyd fails to pitch deep into the game — which has been a pattern this season.
Pitching Matchup: Runs Are Likely on the Horizon
Landen Roupp (Giants, RHP)
Roupp enters this matchup with a 2-2 record, 5.10 ERA, and 1.63 WHIP across 30 innings. These numbers indicate struggles with command and control, along with a tendency to allow base runners and big innings. The Cubs’ lineup has the firepower to make him pay for mistakes, particularly early in the game.
Matthew Boyd (Cubs, LHP)
Boyd is slightly more effective on paper with a 2.70 ERA, but his 1.44 WHIP suggests a fair number of base runners. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t overly dominant, and he has had trouble limiting damage when facing lineups that hit left-handed pitching well. Given that the Giants possess several such hitters, he’ll need pinpoint control to keep things under wraps.
In a setting like Wrigley Field, where environmental factors can swing game tempo, both pitchers face an uphill battle in containing aggressive offenses.
Injuries Impacting Both Teams
Injuries continue to affect both rosters, further amplifying the unpredictability of this matchup. The Giants are without several bullpen arms and depth players, while the Cubs are missing key rotation pieces and have relievers nursing lingering issues. When bullpens are stretched thin and backups are forced into high-leverage situations, mistakes happen — and runs follow.
This dynamic increases the chances of late-inning scoring, a scenario where totals tend to climb rapidly.
Situational and Historical Factors
The weather and location cannot be overlooked. Early May games in Chicago often involve gusty winds, especially during night games. If the wind is blowing out — which it often does — fly balls turn into home runs, and pitchers lose margin for error.
In recent meetings between these two teams, total scores have leaned higher. The Cubs have gone over the 7.5 mark in 7 of their last 10 home games. The Giants, on the road, have seen totals exceed 7.5 in 6 of their last 9. These are not coincidental numbers — they reflect a pattern that aligns with current form and context.
Another factor is how each team performs under pressure. Both have shown resilience and late-inning scoring capabilities. Comebacks, blown leads, and extra-base hits in the final frames of games have been common for each club this season.
Model Predictions
To support the expectation of a high-scoring game, five predictive models have been analyzed:
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PECOTA: Projects a 6-5 win for the Cubs, totaling 11 runs.
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ZiPS: Forecasts a 5.8-4.9 Cubs victory, totaling 10.7 runs.
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Pythagorean Expectation: Estimates a 5.5-4.5 outcome in favor of the Cubs, totaling 10 runs.
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Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network: Predicts a 6.2-5.1 Cubs win, totaling 11.3 runs.
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Base Runs Model: Calculates a 5.9-5.0 result, totaling 10.9 runs.
All models suggest a total run count well above the 7.5 threshold, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring game.
Final Score Projection
This game presents several clear indicators pointing toward a high run total:
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Two starting pitchers who allow frequent base runners
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Inconsistent bullpens impacted by injury and fatigue
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Offenses that are clicking, with multiple power threats
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A stadium and weather conditions that favor hitters
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Recent trends that show a consistent pattern of high-scoring games
Projected Final Score:
San Francisco Giants – 5
Chicago Cubs – 6
Total Runs: 11
This projection comfortably surpasses the 7.5-run threshold and reflects how both teams are positioned heading into this game. Expect scoring opportunities early and often, with a good chance for a few late-inning fireworks as well.
Conclusion: All Signs Point to a Run-Filled Night at Wrigley
Everything about this matchup — from recent form and lineup strength to pitching instability and game conditions — suggests that the action on Monday night will be anything but quiet. While the surface-level statistics may make this appear like a pitcher’s duel, deeper analysis reveals a very different story.
With both lineups showing life and both pitching staffs dealing with challenges, this game has the potential to surpass the 7.5 total run mark well before the ninth inning. It’s not just about numbers; it’s about the game’s flow, the fatigue in the bullpens, and the momentum of two competitive teams looking to make a statement.
Keep an eye on this one — it has all the makings of a thrilling, high-scoring contest.
PICK: over 7.5 total points WIN
