Celtics vs. Knicks Prediction: The Smart Bet for Tonight’s Playoff Clash

The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs tips off with a heavyweight Eastern Conference showdown as the Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks in a highly anticipated Game 1 clash. With the Celtics entering as -9 point favorites and the total set at 212.5, bettors are weighing whether Boston can cover the spread or if the gritty Knicks can keep it close.

This game isn’t just about star power—it’s a battle of contrasting styles. The Celtics, armed with elite three-point shooting and stifling defense, dominated their first-round series, while the Knicks grinded through a physical seven-game war. With no major injuries on either side, this matchup promises high-intensity basketball, but will it be a blowout or a defensive slugfest?

To answer that, we’ve analyzed the top five AI sports betting models (including BetQL, ESPN BPI, and SportsLine), combined them with our proprietary predictive algorithm (factoring in Pythagorean win expectations, strength of schedule, and recent trends), and distilled the best possible betting pick.

AI Model Predictions

Averaged AI Prediction:

• Score: BOS 111.2 – NYK 100.8 (BOS -10.4)

• Spread Consensus: BOS -9 (3/5 models favor Celtics covering)

• Total Consensus: Under 212.5 (3/5 models lean Under)

Step 2: Our Prediction (Using Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Trends)

Key Factors:

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation (Regular Season):

   • Celtics:

     • Points For (PF) = 118.6

     • Points Against (PA) = 109.2

     • Pythagorean Win % = 0.738

   • Knicks:

     • PF = 112.3

     • PA = 108.9

     • Pythagorean Win % = 0.623

   Expected Score Differential:

   • Celtics expected to win by ~6-7 pts (based on regular-season efficiency).

2. Strength of Schedule (Playoffs Adjusted):

   • Celtics: Faced a weaker Round 1 opponent (MIA).

   • Knicks: Battled a tough IND team in Round 1.

   • Fatigue Factor: Knicks may be slightly more worn down.

3. Home Court Advantage:

   • Celtics at home add ~3-4 pts to spread.

4. Trends:

   • Celtics ATS (vs NYK): 4-1 last 5 meetings.

   • Playoff Pace: Slower games → favors Under.

Our Predicted Score:

• Boston 110 – New York 101 (BOS -9, Total 211)

Step 3: Final Consensus Pick (Averaging AI + Our Model)

Additional Notes:

• No key injuries for either team.

• Celtics dominate at home vs. NYK (5-1 ATS last 6).

• Knicks may keep it close early, but Celtics’ depth should prevail.

Final Score Prediction: Boston 110 – New York 101

Pick

• Take Under 212.5 total points. ***LOSE***