The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins continue their weekend series on July 5, 2025, at loanDepot Park, with both teams looking to gain momentum before the All-Star break. Last night’s matchup was a thriller, with the Brewers narrowly escaping with a 6-5 victory, thanks to late-game heroics and a shaky Marlins bullpen. Now, Miami will try to even the series, while Milwaukee aims to solidify its Wild Card positioning.
Brewers’ Road Success Faces Marlins’ Home Struggles
The Brewers (49-39, 2nd in NL Central) have been one of the more consistent teams in the National League, thanks to a balanced offense and a resilient pitching staff. Despite multiple injuries—including key absences like Brandon Woodruff and Garrett Mitchell—Milwaukee has stayed competitive, relying on depth and timely hitting.
On the mound tonight is Chad Patrick, who has shown flashes of dominance but remains vulnerable to the long ball. His ability to navigate a Marlins lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching will be crucial. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense, led by William Contreras and Christian Yelich, will look to exploit Cal Quantrill, who has been inconsistent this season.
Marlins’ Uphill Battle Continues
The Marlins (39-47, 3rd in NL East) are in a tough spot, sitting well below .500 and dealing with injuries to key arms like Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers. Last night’s loss was another missed opportunity, as Miami’s bullpen faltered late. Quantrill will need to deliver a strong start to give his team a chance, but his 4.30 ERA and struggles with left-handed hitters could spell trouble against Milwaukee’s lineup.
Offensively, the Marlins have been one of the weakest teams in baseball, ranking near the bottom in runs scored. Without much power in the lineup, they’ll need to manufacture runs through small ball and capitalize on Patrick’s mistakes.
Key Factors to Watch
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Bullpen Battle: The Brewers’ relief corps has been solid, while Miami’s has been a liability. Late innings could decide this one.
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Injury Impact: Both teams are missing key pieces, but Milwaukee’s depth has been better at weathering the storm.
Will Miami find a way to even the series, or will Milwaukee continue its push toward October? The pitching duel between Patrick and Quantrill could set the tone early, but the real drama may come down to which team executes in clutch situations.
Top 5 AI Betting Models’ Predictions
| Model | Predicted Brewers Runs | Predicted Marlins Runs | Projected Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 4.8 | 3.6 | MIL |
| ESPN | 5.1 | 3.9 | MIL |
| SportsLine | 4.6 | 3.4 | MIL |
| PECOTA | 4.9 | 3.7 | MIL |
| FanGraphs | 5.0 | 3.8 | MIL |
| Average | 4.88 | 3.68 | MIL -1.2 |
Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule
Brewers:
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Runs Scored (RS): 4.6 per game
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Runs Allowed (RA): 4.2 per game
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Pythagorean Win % = RS² / (RS² + RA²) = 54.5%
Marlins:
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Runs Scored (RS): 3.9 per game
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Runs Allowed (RA): 4.5 per game
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Pythagorean Win % = RS² / (RS² + RA²) = 43.2%
Strength of Schedule (SoS) Adjustment:
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Brewers have faced a tougher schedule (opponents avg. .510 win%).
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Marlins have faced a weaker schedule (opponents avg. .490 win%).
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Adjusted Win Expectancy: Brewers 56% | Marlins 44%
Key Factors & Recent Trends
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Pitching Matchup:
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Chad Patrick (MIL): 4.12 ERA (rookie, high K-rate but prone to HRs).
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Cal Quantrill (MIA): 4.30 ERA (struggles vs. lefties, Brewers have strong LHB).
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Bullpen: Brewers have a stronger bullpen (3.65 ERA vs. Marlins’ 4.10).
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Injuries:
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MIL: Missing key relievers (Bukauskas, Gasser) and OF depth (Mitchell, Perkins).
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MIA: Missing SP depth (Garrett, Weathers) and power bat (Conine).
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Recent Form:
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Brewers won 6-5 on July 4 (bullpen nearly blew lead).
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Final Score Prediction
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AI Models Avg: MIL 4.88 – MIA 3.68
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Our Model (Pythag + SoS + Trends): MIL 5.1 – MIA 3.7
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Combined Prediction: MIL 5.0 – MIA 4
Pick:
- Take the Milwaukee Brewers -123 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
