The Sharp Money Says . . .
As I consider myself a highly successful professional sports bettor and handicapper, I’m always looking for edges in the market and any wager that presents real value. When I see a line that I believe is off, I pounce. That’s the case with tonight’s SEC showdown between LSU and Ole Miss. I see a 15-1 team at a 10-6 team in conference play the 15-1 team is ranked the 10-6 team is not, yet the 10-6 team is favored by 3? Let’s see whats going on here.
LSU:
LSU enters this game as a 3-point home favorite, but I believe that’s a bargain. The Tigers are the more talented and experienced team, and they’re playing at home in front of a raucous crowd.
LSU is led by senior guard KJ Williams, who is averaging 18.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He’s a matchup nightmare for Ole Miss, who doesn’t have anyone who can consistently guard him.
The Tigers also have a strong supporting cast, including senior forward Darius Days (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and junior guard Adam Miller (12.5 PPG). Miller is still working his way back from a knee injury, but he’s expected to play tonight.
Defensively, LSU is led by senior forward Derek Fountain, who is one of the best shot-blockers in the country. He’ll be a handful for Ole Miss’s big men.
Ole Miss:
Ole Miss is a dangerous team, but they’re not on LSU’s level. The Rebels are led by senior guard Matthew Murrell, who is averaging 15.9 points per game. He’s a streaky shooter, but he can get hot in a hurry.
The Rebels also have a solid frontcourt, led by senior forward Jaemyn Brakefield (12.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and junior forward Myles Burns (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG). However, they’ll be at a size disadvantage against LSU’s big men.
Defensively, Ole Miss is led by senior guard Daeshun Ruffin, who is a good on-ball defender. However, the Rebels as a whole are prone to giving up big plays.
Trends:
- LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Ole Miss is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
- LSU is 7-2 ATS at home this season.
- Ole Miss is 3-5 ATS on the road this season.
Prediction:
The top college basketball betting models all favor LSU in this matchup, with an average predicted margin of victory of 5.6 points. My own prediction, based on the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule, also favors LSU by 4 points.
While Ole Miss has shown some improvement in recent weeks, LSU is the more talented and experienced team, especially at home. Additionally, LSU’s defense has been strong lately, holding opponents to an average of 64.7 points per game over their last 6 contests.
Taking all of these factors into account, I believe LSU is the best pick in this game, even laying the 3 points.
Pick: LSU -3 **WINNER**
Confidence Level: High