Fred Bramlage Coliseum Manhattan, KS, 7:00 PM EST

The Big 12 conference gears up for another exciting matchup as the Kansas State Wildcats (16-11, 6-8 Big 12) host the West Virginia Mountaineers (9-18, 4-10) on Monday night in Manhattan, Kansas. Both teams head into this game with contrasting emotions: Kansas State riding the high of a victory over ranked BYU, while West Virginia seeks to snap a five-game losing streak.

This analysis delves into the matchup, examining each team’s strengths and weaknesses, and exploring why the spread might be a more favorable bet than the moneyline.

Checking Successful NCAA Basketball prediction models:

  1. KenPom: This model projects Kansas State to win by 8.5 points with a 66% chance of victory.
  2. Sagarin: This model also favors Kansas State with a projected margin of victory of 7.5 points.
  3. ESPN BPI: This model predicts a closer game, with Kansas State winning by 4.7 points with a 57% chance of winning.
  4. FiveThirtyEight: This site combines various models and gives Kansas State a 69% chance of winning with a projected margin of 7 points.
  5. Barttorvik: This model predicts Kansas State to win by 7.8 points.

BetQL and Sportsline models:

  • BetQL: This service predicts Kansas State to win by 9.5 points.
  • Sportsline: This website predicts Kansas State to win by 8.5 points.

Pythagorean theorem:

This formula estimates a team’s expected win-loss record based on points scored and allowed. It suggests a closer game with Kansas State winning by approximately 4 points. However, this approach can be limited as it doesn’t account for factors like strength of schedule, injuries, etc.

Kansas State Wildcats: Rebounding and Refocused

The Wildcats enter this game with renewed confidence after their impressive 84-74 win against #25 BYU. This victory marked a significant turnaround for Kansas State, who had previously lost seven of their last eight games. The offensive surge was led by Arthur Kaluma, who exploded for a career-high 28 points. The balanced scoring, with five players reaching double digits, showcased the team’s offensive capabilities.

Coach Jerome Tang emphasized the importance of learning from the recent struggles and focusing on improvement. He credited the coaching staff for identifying key areas and the players for their commitment to overcome challenges. This renewed focus and momentum can be a significant advantage for the Wildcats on their home court.

However, Kansas State’s defensive consistency remains a concern. While their offense has shown glimpses of brilliance, their ability to sustain defensive pressure throughout the game will be crucial against West Virginia’s aggressive style.

West Virginia Mountaineers: Seeking Redemption

The Mountaineers approach this game desperate to end their losing streak. Despite a valiant effort against #6 Iowa State, their 23 turnovers ultimately proved costly, leading to 29 points for the Cyclones. This highlighted their susceptibility to ball pressure, an area Kansas State is known to exploit.

Furthermore, West Virginia’s leading scorer, RaeQuan Battle, struggled against Iowa State, managing only 9 points. His scoring prowess is vital for the Mountaineers to remain competitive.

However, the Mountaineers shouldn’t be completely disregarded. Interim head coach Josh Eilert acknowledged the team’s shortcomings and emphasized the need for mental toughness to overcome adversity. Their ability to learn from their mistakes and improve their ball control will be critical in challenging the Wildcats.

Why the Spread Might be the Better Bet

The current spread favors Kansas State by 9.5 points. While this might seem like a significant margin, several factors suggest it could be a safer bet than the moneyline (-480).

  • Kansas State’s Momentum: The recent win against a ranked opponent has boosted the Wildcats’ morale and confidence. This positive momentum can translate into strong performance on their home court.
  • West Virginia’s Turnovers: The Mountaineers’ tendency to commit turnovers against pressure defense could be exploited by Kansas State, leading to easy points and widening the margin.
  • Uncertainties: Basketball is a game of unpredictable moments. Injuries, unexpected plays, and individual performances can all impact the final score. The spread offers some protection against unforeseen circumstances compared to the straight-up win bet.

This Monday night matchup promises to be an exciting battle in Manhattan. Kansas State seeks to build on their recent victory, while West Virginia desperately needs a win to stop their losing streak. The spread Kansas State -9.5, taking into account both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, along with the potential for unforeseen factors, appears to be a potentially favorable option.

PICK: Kansas State -9.5 LOSE