What I could (and couldn’t) collect from the major models

• SportsLine shows a “PROJECTED SCORE” box and model simulations on the matchup page but the detailed projected score & simulation picks are behind a subscriber paywall.

• Action Network has the official matchup page with odds, injuries, public betting splits and team trends (it lists the Jets and Wild records, moneyline info and a current injury snapshot).

• ESPN matchup/game page gives the public team stats I used (Goals for/against per game, shots, recent form).

• Dimers publishes a simulation-based win probability for the game (example: Jets ~53% in their simulation).

• DailyFaceoff / fantasy schedule pages list strength-of-schedule (SOS) context showing the Jets and Wild have very similar SOS rankings (both around the same middle/top-10 band).

Bottom line on model collection: several top outlets either publish win probabilities or require subscriptions for per-game final score projections. I was able to collect public win-probabilities, trends and injuries — but many of the “final-score” projections are paywalled, so there isn’t a full public set of five explicit final-score numbers to average. Where a model’s explicit score was unavailable, I used the model outputs that are public (win probability, team stats and public simulations) and combined them with my independent projection below. (I list sources above for transparency.)

Key verified facts I used

• Jets offense / defense: 3.33 GF/G, 2.44 GA/G. Wild: 2.70 GF/G, 3.90 GA/G (ESPN team stats)

• Injuries (wild): Minnesota has a few names listed as out/day-to-day (e.g., Zuccarello, Bogosian, Sturm listed out or day-to-day) and Jets have some absences (Samberg, Perfetti). I factored those absences into lineup strength.

• Public betting is currently skewed toward the Jets (Action Network shows public % and line movement).

• Strength of schedule: Jets and Wild show comparable SOS (no large SOS gap).

My independent quantitative rundown (computed)

Inputs (from ESPN):

• Jets GF/G = 3.33, GA/G = 2.44.

• Wild GF/G = 2.70, GA/G = 3.90.

1. Pythagorean expected win% (using exponent 2):

   • Jets ≈ 65.1%.

   • Wild ≈ 32.4%.
     (calculated from GF and GA per game: GF² / (GF² + GA²).)

2. Expected goals this game — simple and common neutral estimator: average each team’s GF/G with opponent’s GA/G:

   • Jets expected goals = (Jets GF/G + Wild GA/G) / 2 = (3.33 + 3.90)/2 = 3.615.

   • Wild expected goals = (Wild GF/G + Jets GA/G) / 2 = (2.70 + 2.44)/2 = 2.57.

   That yields a model-derived line of roughly Jets 3.6 — Wild 2.6 (total ≈ 6.18).

3. Context adjustments (qualitative + small numeric tweaks)

   • Injuries/availability: Minnesota is missing a few depth pieces (Zuccarello, Bogosian listed out), which reduces scoring depth and puck luck. Winnipeg also has a couple of absences but the Jets’ top scoring lines and goaltending (lower GAA) look stronger in the short-term.

   • Form / rest / recent results: Jets are hotter overall (better recent record); Wild have given up a few high-scoring games recently (blown-in goals against). Action Network and ESPN trend pages reflect that.

   • SOS: both teams face similar opponent quality; no major SOS tilt to heavily flip the expectation.

4. Small rounding to practical betting score: that projects to a final-score style call of Jets 4 — Wild 3 (I round Jets 3.6 → 4 and Wild 2.57 → 3 because of likely second-half scoring and special teams variance).

“Collected model average” (practical note)

• Because several leading models (SportsLine, some proprietary BetQL features) hide their explicit final-score behind subscriptions, I could not pull five explicit per-model scores to arithmetically average in a clean way. Where available, simulations / win-probabilities (Dimers, publicly visible projections, Action Network trends) lean to the Jets. SportsLine indicates a projects box but requires subscription for the detailed projected score/simulation picks.

So instead of an unavailable “averaged 5-model final-score”, I produced:

• an accessible-model consensus (win% / simulation lean → Jets), and

• an independent, transparent numeric projection (Pythagorean + expected goals → Jets 4 — Wild 3).

Final pick

My PICK: Winnipeg Jets Moneyline -110 (WIN)