Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina, promises a captivating clash between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Old Dominion Monarchs. Both teams, defying expectations to earn their bowl bids, boast potent offenses and intriguing storylines. Let’s dissect the data, analyze the injuries, and unveil the most informed picks for this December 18th battle. Model Consensus: The AI models present a fascinatingly divided perspective:
- BettingPros Consensus: Old Dominion -2.5
- ESPN FPI: Old Dominion 58.6% win probability
- CBS Sports: Western Kentucky 55% win probability
- Sports Illustrated: Old Dominion 55.7% win probability
- BetQL: Old Dominion -2.5, Over 55.5
- SportsLine: Old Dominion -2.5, Under 55.5
- NumberFire: Western Kentucky 53.6% win probability
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule: Western Kentucky’s 7-5 record translates to a predicted 24.7 wins with 7.3 losses based on their 446 points scored and 316 points allowed. Old Dominion’s 6-6 record translates to a predicted 22.1 wins with 9.9 losses based on their 428 points scored and 432 points allowed. This analysis suggests a more evenly matched situation than the spread implies. However, strength of schedule paints a slightly different picture. Western Kentucky faced the 121st toughest schedule compared to Old Dominion’s 119th. This suggests that Old Dominion’s wins might be slightly inflated due to a slightly easier route throughout the season. Injury Report and Weather: Key injuries cast a shadow on both rosters: Western Kentucky misses running back Michael Mathison and defensive lineman Rex Robich, while Old Dominion faces the potential absence of wide receiver Kadarius Calloway. Losing Mathison might impact their ground game, while Robich’s absence weakens their defensive pressure. Calloway’s potential absence could significantly hinder Old Dominion’s passing attack. The weather in Charlotte is expected to be pleasant with clear skies and a temperature of 48 degrees Fahrenheit. This shouldn’t significantly impact the game’s pace or style. Therefore, my picks are:
- Western Kentucky +2.5 (spread): Taking the points with Western Kentucky offers value considering their recent win over Old Dominion and their offensive firepower. Additionally, Old Dominion’s potential loss of Calloway adds risk to their passing game.
- Over 55.5 (total): Both teams possess explosive offenses, and the potential absence of key defensive players on both sides points towards a high-scoring affair. Additionally, this is a bowl game, where offensive tendencies often increase.
Enjoy the Famous Toastery Bowl and witness the offensive fireworks as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Old Dominion Monarchs clash in Charlotte!
Pick: Take the total under 55.5 tonight. ***LOSE***