Get ready for an action-packed game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. On Thursday, March 14, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will face the Missouri Tigers in the SEC Tournament. This game has many twists and turns with two teams showing different strengths. In this post, we will look at each team’s form, key numbers, and important player matchups. We will also explain why we expect a high-scoring game that goes over 156.5 total points.

Introduction

Tournament games bring energy and excitement, and tonight’s game is set to be no different. The Missouri Tigers are known for their strong offense. They average 84.5 points per game and have a good shooting percentage. However, they have lost four of their last five games, mostly because of problems on defense. On the other side, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have been in great form. They won their recent game against LSU by a big margin (91-62) and have won eight SEC Tournament openers in a row.

This game offers a mix of high scoring and tough defense. Missouri likes to push the pace and score, while Mississippi State has shown that they can slow the game down with strong defense. In this post, we break down what each team brings to the table and show why the total points are likely to go over 156.5.

Team Overviews

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State has built some strong momentum. Their recent win against LSU showed that they can play both good offense and tight defense. In that game, they held LSU to only 39.3% shooting. The Bulldogs have also won eight consecutive SEC Tournament openers. This shows that they are well-prepared and can perform when the pressure is on.

Key points for the Bulldogs:

Defense: Their performance against LSU was a clear sign. Holding an opponent to low shooting percentages is a big plus.
Offense: Although they are known for defense, they also know how to score. They have good team play and quick transitions.
Improvement: Even though they lost to Missouri earlier in the season, Mississippi State has shown that they have learned and improved.

Missouri Tigers

The Missouri Tigers are famous for their scoring. They average 84.5 points per game and shoot well from the field with a 48.7% average. They also make about 9 three-pointers per game at a 37.3% success rate. However, the Tigers have not been as good on defense lately. They have given up an average of 94 points in their last four games. Even with these defensive issues, Missouri’s strong offense keeps them in the game.

Key points for the Tigers:

Offense: Missouri can score quickly and often. Their shooting and fast play make them dangerous.
Defense: Their defense has been a worry lately. Losing four out of five games shows there are gaps that opponents can use.
Recent Form: Although they had a bye in the first round of the SEC Tournament, their recent losses mean they need to fix their defensive play.

Key Player Matchups

For Missouri Tigers

Mark Mitchell: He leads the team with 14.3 points per game and grabs about 4.7 rebounds. Mitchell plays a key role on both offense and defense.
Caleb Grill: Averaging 14.2 points per game, Grill had a big game before with 20 points against Mississippi State. His scoring and playmaking will be important.

For Mississippi State Bulldogs

Josh Hubbard: Hubbard is the main scorer for the Bulldogs, with an average of 18.4 points per game. He scored 24 points in his last game against Missouri and will be crucial again tonight.
KeShawn Murphy: Coming off the bench, Murphy has shown he can make a difference. He scored 16 points in their previous meeting and adds energy and depth to the team.

The duel between Missouri’s key scorers and Mississippi State’s strong defensive players will be one of the highlights of the game. How well these stars perform may decide the outcome.

Statistical Breakdown and Trends

Offensive Numbers

Missouri Tigers:
- Average points: 84.5 per game.
- Shooting percentage: 48.7%.
- Three-pointers: About 9 per game at 37.3%.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:
- The Bulldogs are not as high-scoring as Missouri but have a balanced attack.
- They show a good mix of inside and outside scoring.
- They average 8.5 three-pointers per game at a 31.8% rate.

Defensive Numbers

Missouri’s defense has been shaky. They allowed nearly 94 points in their last four games. This shows that when their defense is off, opponents can score easily. On the other hand, Mississippi State showed strong defense against LSU by holding them to just 39.3% shooting.

Pace of Play

Both teams play at a moderate pace, but Missouri’s ability to speed up the game gives them a chance to score more. A faster pace means more possessions and more opportunities to score. Mississippi State’s strong defense can slow down the game, but if they lose focus, Missouri might push the pace even more.

Head-to-Head History

In their last meeting, Missouri beat Mississippi State by a wide margin (88-61). That game showed Missouri’s ability to score quickly. However, Mississippi State has improved since that game, especially on the defensive side. The history gives Missouri an edge, but the Bulldogs’ recent improvements add a twist to this matchup.

Prediction Models and Consensus

We looked at five trusted NCAA Basketball prediction models to help us see the bigger picture. Here are the projections:

KenPom: Projects a score of Missouri 87, Mississippi State 83.
Sagarin: Sees the game ending with Missouri 86, Mississippi State 84.
TeamRankings: Predicts a score of Missouri 88, Mississippi State 82.
ESPN BPI: Gives a final score of Missouri 87, Mississippi State 83.
Dimers.com: After many simulations, it gives a score of Missouri 86, Mississippi State 84.

All models show Missouri with a slight edge. The combined scores from these models suggest a total score around 170 points. However, taking into account Mississippi State’s defense and the pace of play, our final consensus supports an over 156.5 total points for the game.

Why Over 156.5 Total Points?

There are several clear reasons to expect a high-scoring game that goes over 156.5 total points:

Missouri’s High-Scoring Offense:
Missouri can score quickly and efficiently. Their strong shooting from both the field and beyond the arc will add points quickly.
Mississippi State’s Defensive Ups and Downs:
While the Bulldogs showed excellent defense against LSU, they have had moments where their defense slipped. If they cannot keep Missouri in check, the total score will be high.
Fast Pace of the Game:
Missouri has the ability to push the game at a faster pace. More possessions mean more scoring opportunities.
Recent High-Scoring Games:
In their last meeting, the game saw many points. The trend shows that when these teams meet, the score often climbs high.
Model Consensus:
All five models point toward a total score well above 156.5 points. Their predictions support the idea that both teams will score freely.

When you add all these factors together, it becomes clear that the total points for this game are likely to be high.

Final Score Prediction and Conclusion

After looking at the teams’ recent form, key player matchups, and all the stats, here is our prediction:

Predicted Outcome:
Missouri Tigers 85, Mississippi State Bulldogs 82

Missouri’s strong offense and ability to score quickly give them a slight edge. However, Mississippi State’s improved defense and strong performance in recent tournament games keep the contest close. The combined score is expected to be around 167 points, which is well above the 156.5 total points mark.

In simple terms, the Missouri Tigers have the power to score a lot, but their recent defense has let in too many points. The Mississippi State Bulldogs, known for their solid win against LSU, will try to slow the game down. Still, if Missouri’s offense gets going, expect plenty of points on the board.

In conclusion, this game promises to be a close and fast-paced contest. With Missouri’s high-scoring offense and Mississippi State’s sometimes uneven defense, the overall points are expected to go over 156.5. Enjoy the game at Bridgestone Arena as these two teams fight hard for every point in this exciting SEC Tournament match.

PICK: over 156.5 total points