1) Which model/pick sources I used (public score predictions)
(I pulled explicit final-score predictions where the outlet published one.)
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BleacherNation — Chicago 5, St. Louis 1.
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PicksAndParlays — St. Louis 4, Chicago 2.
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Last Word on Sports — Blues 6, Blackhawks 3.
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FSR/iHeart (computer model page) — Blackhawks 9, Blues 0.
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KnupSports — Blues 4, Blackhawks 3.
Note: I attempted to include SportsLine and BetQL outputs — SportsLine shows a “PROJECTED SCORE” box but the numeric projections are behind the subscriber paywall and unavailable without membership (they do show public/sharp money splits). BetQL provides model picks and tools but doesn’t show a single public final-score in a simple page I could capture. I therefore used five accessible, reputable published predictions above. (I cite SportsLine / Action Network / ESPN pages where I reference team stats or injury info below.)
2) Averaged models — the math
I converted each published prediction into (St. Louis score, Chicago score) and averaged across the five sources:
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BleacherNation → (1, 5).
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PicksAndParlays → (4, 2).
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LastWord → (6, 3).
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FSR/iHeart → (0, 9).
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KnupSports → (4, 3).
Sum St. Louis = 1 + 4 + 6 + 0 + 4 = 15 → average = 15 / 5 = 3.0
Sum Chicago = 5 + 2 + 3 + 9 + 3 = 22 → average = 22 / 5 = 4.4
Averaged final-score from these 5 published predictions:
Chicago 4.4 — St. Louis 3.0 → rounded to Chicago 4 — St. Louis 3 (models’ aggregate slightly favors an upset to Chicago)
(References to each prediction above.)
3) My independent prediction (method + numbers)
Data used
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Early-season team per-game numbers / box-score context from ESPN / Action Network (goals-for, goals-against, shots, recent results).
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Injury / status reports (Blues: Oskar Sundqvist out, Alexey Toropchenko day-to-day; Blues day-to-day list; Blackhawks: Laurent Brossoit out, Shea Weber out, Joey Anderson out).
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Recent results: Blues have been strong on their road trip (4–2, 5–2) and looking in form; Blackhawks are 1-2-1 but have some scoring pieces (Connor Bedard, Spencer Knight goaltending form).
Pythagorean-theorem (simple hockey version)
Using current per-game GF/G and GA/G (small-sample early-season numbers):
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Chicago GF = 2.50, GA = 2.75 → Pythagorean expected win% ≈ 0.4525 (45.3%).
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St. Louis GF = 3.00, GA = 3.00 → expected win% ≈ 0.50 (50.0%).
(Formula used: GF² / (GF² + GA²). Calculations from the team averages pulled above.)
Strength of schedule & external factors
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SOS / schedule: early-season sample but Blues’ recent opponents (Calgary, Vancouver) are legitimate teams — Blues won both and look confident; Blackhawks’ early opponents included some tougher matchups and a recent home win that got them back into it. Overall small-sample SOS slightly favors Blues (they’ve beaten decent teams on the road).
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Goalies / starts: Blues have rotated Binnington / Hofer; Binnington had a poor one earlier but was bounced back recently — starting goalie reports are somewhat fluid. Blackhawks have seen Spencer Knight and Arvid Soderblom; Knight’s early numbers look solid (.920 SV% in early starts). Goalie start uncertainty slightly depresses confidence either way.
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Injuries: neither team missing top scorers, but role players are out on both sides (Blues: Sundqvist/Toropchenko; Blackhawks: Brossoit/Anderson/Weber). Net effect: small impact — depth shift, but top lines intact for both teams.
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Rest/travel: Blues are returning home after a short road trip (two wins). That momentum plus home ice gives them a modest edge.
My computed/rounded game projection
Combining:
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Pythagorean edge (Blues slight), home advantage, recent form favoring Blues, but many public models are projecting a high-scoring game favoring Chicago on some pages (contrarian picks exist), and goalie uncertainty could swing outcomes.
My prediction (final score):
St. Louis Blues 4 — Chicago Blackhawks 3 (Final).
Why: the Blues’ offensive profile and recent form + home ice give them a small edge in expected goals; the Blackhawks have the firepower to make it high-scoring and to push this one close (so the game goes over the 5.5 total). I expect a close, high-scoring game where the Blues win by a single goal.
(Stats/injury/lineup sources).
