The Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, sets the stage for a compelling clash between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Northern Illinois Huskies. Both teams finished the regular season with promising 6-6 records, each hungry for a triumphant end to their season. Let’s dissect the data, analyze the injuries, and uncover the most informed picks for this December 23rd showdown.
Model Consensus:
The AI models present a fascinatingly divided landscape:
- BettingPros Consensus: Arkansas State +1
- ESPN FPI: Arkansas State 53.4% win probability
- CBS Sports: Northern Illinois 55% win probability
- Sports Illustrated: Northern Illinois 58.3% win probability
- BetQL: Northern Illinois +1, Over 53.5
- SportsLine: Northern Illinois +1, Under 53.5
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:
Analyzing the Red Wolves through the Pythagorean theorem, their 6-6 record translates to a predicted 22.1 wins with 9.9 losses based on their 514 points scored and 351 points allowed. Comparing with the Huskies, their 6-6 record translates to a predicted 19.9 wins with 12.1 losses based on their 428 points scored and 432 points allowed. This suggests a slightly stronger offensive performance from Arkansas State, while the Huskies’ defense appears slightly tougher.
However, strength of schedule paints a different picture. The Red Wolves faced the 121st toughest schedule compared to the Huskies’ 119th. This suggests that Arkansas State’s wins might be slightly inflated due to a slightly easier route throughout the season.
Injury Report and Weather:
Key injuries could play a significant role on both sides: the Red Wolves are missing running back Zak Wallace and cornerback Emmanual Stevenson. Their ground game and secondary might face challenges. For the Huskies, the potential absence of quarterback Davis Patterson and offensive lineman Kacper Rutkiewicz looms large. Losing Patterson could disrupt their offensive rhythm, while Rutkiewicz’s importance lies in pass protection.
The weather in Montgomery on December 23rd is expected to be pleasant with clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees Fahrenheit. This shouldn’t significantly impact the game’s pace or style.
Personal Prediction:
This game is a true toss-up. The Red Wolves’ potent offense, averaging 38.8 points per game, can exploit the Huskies’ potential holes in defense. However, the Huskies’ defensive toughness and potential return of Patterson shouldn’t be underestimated.
- Arkansas State +1 (spread): Considering the Red Wolves’ recent win over the Huskies and their offensive firepower, taking the points offers value. However, keep in mind their bowl struggles and the potential return of Patterson for the Huskies.
- Under 53.5 (total): Both teams face key defensive losses, but their remaining players are solid. Additionally, the weather might encourage a ground-based approach, potentially limiting the offensive explosion predicted by some models.
Enjoy the Camellia Bowl and witness the battle between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Northern Illinois Huskies as they aim to end their seasons on a high note in Montgomery!
Pick: Take the Under 53.5 points. ***WINNER***