BYU Cougars (23-9) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-9): A Big 12 Battle with Big Implications

Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 12:30pm EDT, T-Mobile Center Kansas City, MO

The Big 12 Conference Tournament heats up on Thursday, March 14th, as the No. 20 ranked BYU Cougars take on the No. 25 ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders in a high-stakes quarterfinal matchup. Both teams have exceeded expectations this season, emerging as surprise contenders in one of the nation’s toughest conferences. With a berth in the NCAA Tournament on the line, let’s delve into this intriguing clash and explore why Texas Tech with the +2 point spread might be the safer bet.

Top Prediction Models:

Pythagorean Theorem Prediction:

Based on points scored and allowed throughout the season, the Pythagorean theorem predicts:

• BYU: 77.2 points
• Texas Tech: 76.8 points

BYU Cougars: Offensive Firepower with Balanced Attack

The Cougars boast a potent offense, averaging 82.2 points per game, ranking them 22nd nationally. Their offensive prowess stems from their balanced attack. Four players average double-digit points, led by senior forward Alex Barcello (15.4 PPG) and junior center Fousseyni Traore (14.3 PPG). BYU thrives on ball movement, averaging 16.2 assists per game, which creates open looks for their shooters. They excel from beyond the arc, shooting 37.8% from three-point range, a threat that can stretch opposing defenses.

However, the Cougars’ success hinges on replicating their recent form. While riding a 7-3 record in their last ten games, they face a Texas Tech team known for stifling defenses. In their last matchup against the Red Raiders on January 20th, BYU’s explosive offense was contained in the second half, leading to a Texas Tech victory.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Gritty Defense and Renewed Momentum

The Red Raiders finished the regular season strong, winning their last three games to secure a crucial double-bye in the Big 12 Tournament. This late-season surge is attributed to their characteristically stingy defense. Texas Tech ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, excelling at contesting shots and forcing turnovers. This defensive tenacity was evident in their comeback win against BYU earlier this season, where they held the Cougars to just 3-of-19 three-point attempts in the second half.

While their offense isn’t as flashy as BYU’s, the Red Raiders possess key weapons. Senior guard Pop Isaacs leads the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and has found his shooting rhythm recently, putting up 39 points in the last two games. The return of their big man, Warren Washington, from a foot injury would be a significant boost for their interior offense and rebounding. His presence in the paint would also be crucial in containing Traore, BYU’s primary offensive threat.

Why Texas Tech +2 is the Safer Bet: A Multi-Factor Analysis

Several factors point towards Texas Tech covering the +2 spread:

• Defense Wins Championships: Texas Tech boasts a championship-caliber defense, consistently shutting down opponents throughout the season. Their ability to disrupt BYU’s offensive rhythm, particularly their three-point shooting, could be a game-changer.
• Revenge Factor: The Red Raiders will be motivated to avenge their January loss to BYU. They understand the Cougars’ strengths and weaknesses from their previous encounter, giving them a strategic advantage.
• Momentum Matters: Texas Tech is riding a three-game winning streak, carrying confidence and momentum into this crucial matchup. BYU, despite their recent success, might face a mental hurdle in overcoming their earlier loss to the Red Raiders.

A Word on Offense: While BYU holds an offensive edge statistically, Texas Tech’s ability to control the tempo and exploit scoring opportunities in transition shouldn’t be underestimated. Additionally, a healthy Washington could provide much-needed offensive firepower inside.

The Verdict: This matchup promises to be a tightly contested defensive battle. While BYU’s offensive firepower is undeniable, Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, recent momentum, and potential revenge narrative make them the more enticing pick, especially considering the +2 point spread.

Pick: Texas +2