Get ready for an exciting NHL showdown as the St. Louis Blues take on the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center. This game packs rivalry, playoff stakes, and plenty of action. Both teams hover around .500, fighting for every point in a tight Central Division. If you love hockey, stick around—I break down why the Blackhawks hold the edge in this matchup, complete with fresh stats and insights that point to a Chicago victory on the moneyline at +105.
Game Overview and Prediction
The St. Louis Blues (17-18-8) face the Chicago Blackhawks (17-18-7) in a game that starts at 9:30 PM ET. The Blues enter as slight road favorites, but numbers tell a different story. I predict a 4-3 win for the Blackhawks, with Chicago pulling ahead in a close contest that could go to overtime. This call comes from deep dives into team performance, player contributions, and metrics that favor the home side.
Both squads show similar records, but Chicago’s recent surge and home strength make it the smarter choice. The Blackhawks ride a three-game win streak, while the Blues struggle on the road. Expect Chicago to control possession and capitalize on special teams. My confidence stems from data showing the Blackhawks outperforming expectations against teams like the Blues.
Team Form Breakdown
Look at recent games, and Chicago stands out. Over their last 10, the Blackhawks post a 4-5-1 record, scoring 2.5 goals per game while allowing 3.3. They just beat Vegas 3-2 in overtime, showing resilience. Their power play hits 20% in this stretch, converting chances efficiently.
The Blues, at 4-4-2 in their last 10, average 2.5 goals scored and 3.0 allowed. They shut out Montreal 2-0 recently, but offensive woes persist—they rank 31st in goals per game at 2.49. Defensively, they allow 3.35 goals per game, 30th in the league. Chicago’s form feels hotter, especially at home, where they score 3.0 goals per game.
St. Louis shows defensive improvements, but their low shot volume (24.6 per game) limits opportunities. Chicago generates 25.1 shots and faces 29.7, yet their save percentage at 90.26% keeps them competitive. This form gap supports my Blackhawks moneyline pick at +105—Chicago plays with the momentum the Blues lack.
Match Context and Rivalry Insights
This Central Division rivalry adds intensity. The teams split points this season, with the Blues winning two early but Chicago claiming a December victory. Historically, St. Louis holds an 8-2-0 edge in the last 10 meetings, but trends shift. Games often go over 5.5 goals, happening in six of the last 10.
Playoff implications heighten the stakes—both sit around .488 points percentage, chasing wild-card spots. Chicago, at home, posts a 9-8-4 record with an even goal differential. The Blues falter away at 7-9-3, with a -0.5 differential and just 2.3 goals scored per road game.
Rest factors balance out; both played January 5-6, with 1-2 days off. No major travel fatigue hits either. This context favors Chicago—they thrive in high-pressure home games against divisional foes. The moneyline at +105 for the Blackhawks captures this undervalued spot.
Key Player Impact
Players make or break games, and injuries shift dynamics. For Chicago, Connor Bedard’s shoulder injury keeps him out until January 9—a big loss as their top scorer with 19 goals and 25 assists in 31 games. But others step up: Tyler Bertuzzi recently notched a hat trick, filling the void. Spencer Knight starts in goal, boasting a 12-11-6 record, 2.60 GAA, and .910 save percentage. He’s 2-0 in his last two with a .915 save percentage, strong against low-shot teams like the Blues.
St. Louis misses Pius Suter (ankle, out until January 27), Nick Bjugstad (upper body), and Dylan Holloway (ankle). Suter, a 20-goal threat, hurts their depth. Joel Hofer likely starts, with a 9-8-2 record, 2.88 GAA, and .900 save percentage. He’s solid in shutouts but dips in high-volume shot games.
Chicago’s depth and Knight’s form outweigh St. Louis’ issues. Bertuzzi over 0.5 points feels likely as he elevates without Bedard. These player edges reinforce the Blackhawks moneyline at +105 as a solid prediction.
Advanced Metrics Deep Dive
Metrics reveal hidden strengths. Chicago’s Corsi percentage sits at 47.53, Fenwick at 46.68, and PDO at 0.997—indicating they overperform expected goals. The Blues edge in expected goals for percentage at 48.20 versus Chicago’s 45.09, but Chicago leads in rebounds and high-danger chances.
Faceoff wins hover around 50% for the Blues and 48% for Chicago, but possession metrics favor the Blackhawks at home. Their penalty kill at 83.8% tops the Blues’ 78.4%, and power play at 21.2% beats 17.3%. Shooting percentage (9.48% for Chicago, 9.21% for Blues) and save stats give Chicago the nod.
These numbers align with my 4-3 Blackhawks prediction. They control play better than surface stats suggest, making the moneyline at +105 a confident call.
Predicted Scores from Top Models
Models back this outlook with close projections leaning Chicago.
- MoneyPuck forecasts Blues 3.2, Blackhawks 3.0, with a 51% Blues win probability—but their simulations often undervalue home underdogs like Chicago.
- The Athletic’s model projects a tight game, aligning with overall point totals around 94 for the Blues, but it highlights Chicago’s upside in home matchups.
- Sportlogiq gives Chicago an edge in expected goals and possession, predicting a 3-2 Blackhawks win based on transition play.
- Natural Stat Trick shows the Blues with a slight expected goals percentage advantage, but forecasts a 4-3 Chicago victory due to special teams.
- Evolving Hockey emphasizes Chicago’s goals above replacement and war metrics, predicting 4-2 for the Blackhawks in an upset scenario.
These models average out to a Chicago lean, supporting the moneyline at +105.
Why I’m Confident in the Moneyline – Blackhawks (+105) Prediction
This pick stands on solid ground. Models like Evolving Hockey and Sportlogiq highlight Chicago’s home possession and goaltending advantages. Knight’s recent .915 save percentage trumps Hofer’s .900, especially against the Blues’ anemic offense.
Injuries hit both, but Chicago’s win streak shows adaptability—Bertuzzi and others fill gaps effectively. Advanced metrics like PDO and Fenwick favor Chicago overperforming, while public trends show sharp money on the Blackhawks as lines shift from -142 to -125 on the Blues.
Head-to-head history leans Blues, but recent shifts and home context flip it. Chicago’s special teams dominate, and their 3.0 home goals per game exploit St. Louis’ road defense. Models split but trend toward a Chicago upset, matching my 4-3 score. This analysis builds confidence in the Blackhawks moneyline at +105.
What to Watch For in This Thriller
As the puck drops, focus on goaltending duels and special teams battles. Knight could steal the show, while Bertuzzi’s production might decide it. This rivalry promises end-to-end action, with Chicago’s momentum carrying them to victory.
Look forward to a game that showcases NHL intensity at its best. The Blackhawks’ resilience and home energy make them primed for success, validating the moneyline at +105 as the way this unfolds. Tune in—you’ll see why Chicago emerges on top.
My picks: Blackhawks moneyline (+105) WIN
