Back Seattle? AI Models Reveal the Best Bet for Pirates vs. Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are riding high after back-to-back shutout wins against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they’ll look to complete the sweep on Sunday, July 6, 2025, at T-Mobile Park. With dominant pitching and a sputtering Pirates offense, this matchup could follow the same low-scoring trend we’ve seen in the first two games of the series.

Pitching Duel: Skenes vs. Kirby

All eyes will be on the mound as Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh’s flame-throwing ace, takes on George Kirby, Seattle’s reliable right-hander. Skenes has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing Pirates season, boasting a 2.89 ERA with elite strikeout numbers. However, Pittsburgh’s offense has failed to back him up, scoring just one run in the last two games.

On the other side, Kirby brings consistency, with a 3.45 ERA and excellent command. The Mariners’ bullpen, one of the best in baseball, looms as another major advantage if the game stays tight late.

Pirates’ Offensive Woes & Mariners’ Pitching Dominance

Pittsburgh’s lineup has been ice-cold, managing only three hits in Saturday’s 1-0 loss. Injuries have piled up, with key contributors like Jared Jones and Endy Rodríguez sidelined, leaving the Pirates with little firepower. Meanwhile, Seattle’s pitching staff has been lights-out, posting consecutive shutouts and allowing just seven hits total in the series.

Seattle’s Playoff Push vs. Pittsburgh’s Lost Season

At 47-42, the Mariners are firmly in the AL Wild Card race and need every win to keep pace in a tight playoff hunt. The Pirates, sitting at 38-52 and in last place in the NL Central, are playing for pride—and possibly future trade pieces.

Key Factors to Watch

• Can Skenes outpitch Kirby? If he dominates, this could be another pitchers’ duel.

• Will the Pirates’ offense wake up? They rank near the bottom in runs scored.

• Mariners’ bullpen advantage: Seattle’s relievers have been nearly unhittable.

• Weather & park factors: T-Mobile Park favors pitchers, and the cool marine air could suppress power.

As both teams prepare for the series finale, the big question is whether Pittsburgh can avoid the sweep or if Seattle’s pitching will once again shut them down. Stay tuned for our full breakdown and prediction!

AI Betting Model Predictions

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Pirates: 38-52 (Run Diff: -45) → Expected W% ≈ 0.430

• Mariners: 47-42 (Run Diff: +22) → Expected W% ≈ 0.548

Strength of Schedule (Recent Opponent Difficulty)

• Pirates: Faced strong teams (LAD, ATL, NYM) before SEA.

• Mariners: Played weaker offenses (OAK, LAA) before PIT.

Key Factors & Adjustments

• Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. George Kirby (SEA)

  • Skenes: 2.89 ERA, 11.2 K/9 (elite but Pirates’ offense struggles).

  • Kirby: 3.45 ERA, 8.5 K/9 (consistent, Mariners’ bullpen strong).

• Injuries:

  • Pirates missing Jared Jones (SP), Endy Rodriguez (C) → weakens lineup.

  • Mariners missing Bryce Miller (SP), Victor Robles (OF) → minimal impact.

• Recent Trends:

  • Last 2 games: SEA won 6-0, 1-0 (dominant pitching).

  • Pirates’ offense: 1 run in last 2 games.

  • Mariners’ bullpen: Top 5 in MLB ERA.

Final Custom Prediction

• Predicted Score: SEA 3 – PIT 1

• Pick: Mariners ML (-110) & Under 6.5

Combined AI Models + My Prediction

Pick

• Take the Seattle Mariners -110 Moneyline. ***WINNER***

Additional Notes

• Skenes could keep it close, but the Mariners’ lineup is deeper.

• Low-scoring trend likely continues (last 2 games: 7 total runs).

• Monitor lineups for last-minute scratches (though no major bats are expected out).