The Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans are set to face off on March 13, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. This matchup features two teams on divergent paths this season, with the Magic striving for a playoff spot and the Pelicans navigating a challenging rebuild.
Team Standings and Performance Metrics
As of March 13, 2025, the Magic hold a 30-36 record, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. Their defense has been a cornerstone, ranking second in opponents’ points allowed per game (107.4), while their offense averages 109.7 points per game, placing them 26th overall. The Magic play at a slower pace, averaging 96.8 possessions per game.
The Pelicans, conversely, have struggled this season, with an 18-48 record, placing them 14th in the Western Conference. They have a more balanced approach, scoring 113.7 points per game (16th) and allowing 110.3 points (8th). The Pelicans play at a faster pace, averaging approximately 100.1 possessions per game.
Offensive and Defensive Comparisons
Offensively, the Pelicans have a higher effective field goal percentage (55.2%, ranked 13th) compared to the Magic (53.7%, ranked 19th). They also shoot better from three-point range at 37.6% (7th) versus Orlando’s 34.8% (26th). However, Orlando excels in free throw attempts per field goal attempt (FTA/FGA), leading the league with a rate of 0.288.
Defensively, Orlando’s strength lies in rebounding and limiting opponents’ opportunities. They rank second in defensive rebound percentage (78.3%) and first in limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds. Meanwhile, New Orleans is solid defensively as well, ranking fifth in opponents’ points in the paint and sixth in opponents’ shooting percentage.
Key Players
For Orlando, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner lead their young core with scoring and playmaking abilities. Banchero, the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year, continues to develop his offensive repertoire, while Wagner’s versatility adds depth to the Magic’s lineup.
New Orleans relies heavily on Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson when healthy. Ingram’s scoring ability and Williamson’s dominance in the paint are pivotal to the Pelicans’ offensive schemes. However, injuries have limited their availability this season, impacting the team’s overall performance.
Injury Report
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Orlando Magic: Moe Wagner and Jalen Suggs are listed as out for this game.
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New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi, Kelly Olynyk, Brandon Boston Jr., Herbert Jones, and Dejounte Murray are all sidelined due to injuries.
Coaching Strategies
Orlando’s coaching staff emphasizes a defensive-oriented approach, focusing on controlling the tempo and maximizing possessions through efficient shot selection and rebounding. Their rotations are designed to maintain defensive intensity, often utilizing a deep bench to keep players fresh.
New Orleans, under their current coaching regime, prefers an up-tempo style, leveraging their athleticism to create transition opportunities. However, injuries have forced adjustments, leading to a more half-court-oriented offense, relying on set plays and perimeter shooting.
Home/Away Splits
The Magic have struggled on the road this season, with a 12-20 away record, averaging 106.5 points scored and 110.2 points allowed per game. The Pelicans, despite their overall record, have been more competitive at home, holding a 12-22 record at the Smoothie King Center, with averages of 114.2 points scored and 111.8 points allowed.
Back-to-Back Games
Neither team is on a back-to-back schedule for this matchup, allowing both squads ample rest and preparation time.
Head-to-Head History
Historically, the Magic have dominated this matchup, winning six straight games against the Pelicans and 16 of their last 20 meetings. This trend underscores Orlando’s tactical advantage and psychological edge in recent encounters.
Pace of Play
The contrasting tempos of these teams will be a critical factor. Orlando’s deliberate pace aims to control the game’s flow, reducing possessions and emphasizing defensive stops. In contrast, New Orleans’ faster pace seeks to exploit defensive mismatches and create open looks in transition.
Three-Point Shooting
New Orleans’ higher three-point shooting percentage (37.6%) compared to Orlando’s (34.8%) could influence the game’s outcome, especially if the Pelicans can capitalize on open perimeter shots. However, Orlando’s perimeter defense has been effective in limiting opponents’ three-point opportunities.
Advanced Metrics
Player impact estimates (PIE) and win shares favor Orlando’s key players. Banchero and Wagner have contributed significantly to the Magic’s success, with positive net ratings reflecting their on-court impact. For New Orleans, Ingram and Williamson’s advanced metrics are tempered by their limited availability, affecting the team’s overall efficiency.
Lineup Data
Orlando’s starting lineup, featuring Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr., boasts a positive net rating, primarily due to defensive cohesion and rebounding prowess. New Orleans’ rotations have been inconsistent due to injuries, leading to negative net ratings for several lineup combinations.
Strength of Schedule
In recent games, Orlando has faced a tougher schedule, competing against playoff-bound teams, which has tested their resilience and adaptability. New Orleans’ recent opponents have been more varied, but injuries have hampered their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement (continued)
As of game day, Orlando opened as a modest -1.5 point favorite on the road, with their moneyline sitting at -129, while New Orleans is priced at +108. The total has been set at 217, reflecting an expectation of a moderately paced game, aligning with Orlando’s slower tempo.
Public money has leaned toward the Magic on the moneyline (around 58% of bets), with sharper bettors noting their consistent edge in this matchup historically and their superior defense. The spread has held relatively firm, suggesting balanced action and respect for New Orleans’ home performance.
Prediction Model Comparison
To solidify our projection, here’s a synthesis of five reputable models:
- FiveThirtyEight (RAPTOR): Magic win probability ~56%, projected score: ORL 108 – NOP 104
- ESPN BPI: Slight edge to Orlando (~54% win chance)
- TeamRankings: ORL projected win by 3.2 points
- NumberFire: ORL 107 – NOP 104
- Massey Ratings: ORL by 2.5 points
All five models favor Orlando, primarily due to their elite defense, consistent rebounding, and injury-depleted Pelicans squad.
Predicted Final Score
Orlando Magic 108 – New Orleans Pelicans 103
- Confidence level: High
- This projection accounts for Orlando’s stifling defense, better recent strength of schedule, and superior health.
Recommended Bet Type
✔️ Recommended Bet: Orlando Magic -1.5 (Spread)
✔️ Secondary Bet: Under 217 Total Points
Reasoning:
- Orlando’s defense (2nd in opponents PPG) slows the game down and limits high-scoring outputs.
- New Orleans is missing several rotation players (Murray, Olynyk, Herbert Jones), which reduces offensive flexibility.
- Historical head-to-head matchups have tended to be lower scoring when Orlando controls pace.
- Neither team is on a back-to-back, so defensive effort should be full-throttle.
Bonus: Consider teasing Orlando -1.5 with the under at 220.5 for a safer alternative parlay option.
Player Props with Value
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Franz Wagner OVER 17.5 Points (-110)
- With Suggs out and Pelicans weakened on the perimeter (no Herb Jones), Franz should see more touches and clean looks.
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Zion Williamson UNDER 22.5 Points (-105)
- Zion has struggled against long, physical defenders and Orlando’s interior defense ranks top 5 in opponent FG% inside the paint.
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Paolo Banchero OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
- Banchero thrives in games where rebounding is critical. With Olynyk and Missi out, look for Paolo to crash the boards.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Paolo Banchero vs Zion Williamson
A battle of physical power forwards. Banchero’s strength and length give him an edge on both ends, especially with Zion not at full health.
2. Franz Wagner vs Brandon Ingram (if active)
If Ingram plays, this will be a test of perimeter scoring vs two-way discipline. If Ingram sits, Wagner could have a field day against backup wings.
3. Bench Depth
Orlando’s second unit, led by Cole Anthony and Jonathan Isaac, provides energy and defense. With New Orleans missing key bench players, expect Magic’s bench to control momentum stretches.
Situational Factors
- Motivation: Orlando is battling for a play-in/playoff spot in the East and needs every win. The Pelicans, out of playoff contention, may prioritize development and rest.
- Revenge Angle: Orlando has dominated the series recently (16 of last 20, including 6 straight), making this a potential “trap” game — but injuries on the Pelicans’ side mitigate that concern.
- Line Movement Stability: No major steam moves in the market suggests books are confident in the Magic’s edge at -1.5.
Final Thoughts
This game is a classic case of defense vs pace, structure vs chaos, and health vs attrition. While New Orleans can put up points when Zion and Ingram are rolling, the injuries to key contributors severely limit their upside. Orlando, while offensively limited, plays elite team defense, executes in late-game situations, and has a well-rounded rotation even with Suggs out.
With playoff implications on the line for the Magic, expect a focused effort. The under also presents value with both teams struggling to reach high point totals when forced into halfcourt play.
Best Bets Recap
- ✅ Orlando Magic -1.5 (High confidence)
- ✅ Under 217 Total Points
- ✅ Franz Wagner OVER 17.5 points
- ✅ Paolo Banchero OVER 6.5 rebounds
- ❌ Zion Williamson UNDER 22.5 points
