The UTSA Roadrunners (11-18, 5-12 AAC) are set to face the Charlotte 49ers (10-20, 3-14 AAC) in their regular-season finale on March 9, 2025, at Dale F. Halton Arena in Charlotte, NC. Both teams have faced challenges this season, with Charlotte losing five of its last six games and UTSA dropping seven of its last eight. This matchup offers both teams an opportunity to conclude their seasons on a positive note.

Coaching Analysis

UTSA’s head coach, Austin Claunch, is in his second season with the Roadrunners. Known for his offensive-minded approach, Claunch emphasizes pace and space, encouraging quick transitions and perimeter shooting. However, the team’s defensive struggles have been a concern, as they allow 77.8 points per game, ranking 320th nationally.

Charlotte’s head coach, Ron Sanchez, is in his sixth season leading the 49ers. Sanchez, a disciple of the pack-line defense, focuses on limiting opponents’ interior scoring and forcing contested perimeter shots. Despite this defensive philosophy, Charlotte has struggled defensively this season, allowing 75.1 points per game. Both coaches have faced challenges in making effective in-game adjustments, often struggling to maintain leads or close out tight games.

Home Court Advantage

Playing at Dale F. Halton Arena provides a familiar environment for the 49ers. Historically, Charlotte has performed better at home, with a winning percentage approximately 10% higher than on the road over the past five seasons. However, this season, their home record mirrors their overall struggles, indicating that home court advantage may be less pronounced. The Roadrunners have faced difficulties on the road, with a road record significantly lower than their home performance.

Tempo

UTSA prefers an up-tempo style, averaging 76.9 points per game, ranking 99th nationally. They push the pace to create transition opportunities and open looks from three-point range. Charlotte, conversely, adopts a more deliberate approach, averaging 71.1 points per game, ranking 262nd nationally. They focus on half-court sets and methodical ball movement to find high-percentage shots. The contrasting tempos will be a key factor, with UTSA aiming to speed up the game and Charlotte looking to control the pace.

Three-Point Shooting

UTSA has a notable edge in three-point shooting, averaging 9.9 made threes per game with a 35.7% conversion rate. This proficiency stretches defenses and opens driving lanes. Charlotte averages 6.9 made threes per game, shooting 31% from beyond the arc, indicating a less reliable perimeter offense. Defensively, Charlotte has been slightly better at limiting opponents’ three-point shooting percentage (33.2% vs. UTSA’s 35.8%), but both teams struggle with rebounding: Charlotte averages just 28.1 rebounds per game while UTSA manages slightly more at 29.5.

Strength of Schedule

Both teams have faced mid-tier strength schedules within the AAC. UTSA has secured wins against teams like Wichita State and Rice, showcasing their potential against comparable competition. Charlotte’s victories include a notable win over North Texas, but their inconsistency has been a recurring issue. Both teams have struggled against top-tier AAC opponents, highlighting areas needing improvement.

Advanced Metrics

According to KenPom ratings, UTSA ranks 203rd nationally, with an offensive efficiency of 107.9 (173rd) and a defensive efficiency of 109.2 (298th). Charlotte ranks 220th, with an offensive efficiency of 108.1 (170th) and a defensive efficiency of 114.1 (332nd). Both teams’ defensive metrics underscore their struggles in limiting opponents’ scoring, which could lead to a high-scoring affair.

Historical Matchups

Over the past five seasons, UTSA and Charlotte have split their matchups, each winning two games. The games have been closely contested, often decided by single-digit margins. Notably, UTSA’s perimeter shooting has been a decisive factor in their victories, while Charlotte’s wins have come through controlling the tempo and dominating the paint.

Conference Implications

Both teams are positioned in the lower tier of the AAC standings, with UTSA ninth and Charlotte tenth. While this game won’t significantly impact tournament seeding, a victory would provide momentum and a positive conclusion to their regular seasons. It also offers an opportunity for players to showcase their skills ahead of the conference tournament.

Public Betting Trends

As of the latest data, public betting trends show a slight lean towards UTSA, with 55% of bets placed on the Roadrunners to cover the spread. The over/under has seen balanced action, indicating uncertainty about the game’s total points. It’s essential to monitor these trends closer to tip-off, as shifts can indicate sharp money influencing the lines.

Line Movement

The opening line favored UTSA by 1.5 points, with a total set at 147.5. Since then, the spread has remained stable, while the total has seen slight movement, dropping to 146. This adjustment suggests bettors anticipate a slightly lower-scoring game than initially projected.

Situational Factors

Both teams are on short rest, having played earlier in the week. Travel favors Charlotte, as they remain at home, while UTSA has journeyed from Texas. Motivation levels are comparable, with both teams eager to end losing streaks and build confidence heading into the conference tournament.

Projections from Respected NCAAB Prediction Models

KenPom: UTSA 78, Charlotte 75
Sagarin Ratings: UTSA by 2 points
Torvik: UTSA 77, Charlotte 74

Projections from Respected NCAAB Prediction Models (cont’d)

Haslametrics: UTSA 76.2, Charlotte 73.5
Bart Torvik: UTSA 77, Charlotte 72.8

Synthesis of the above predictions suggests a modest but consistent edge for the UTSA Roadrunners, averaging around a 3-5 point win in neutral projections. All five models favor UTSA, with most expecting a total in the 150–155 range, slightly over the market total of 147.5.

Predicted Final Score

UTSA 77, Charlotte 73

While both teams are defensively inconsistent, UTSA’s superior offensive efficiency, perimeter shooting, and ability to generate steals gives them an edge in a game that’s likely to be decided in the final minutes. Charlotte’s home-court advantage is minimal given their struggles in Halton Arena this season (4-10 home record), and the loss of forward Jeremiah Oden further diminishes their interior presence.

Confidence Level: Medium-High

This matchup presents a fairly confident lean toward UTSA due to several converging factors: consistent model support, stronger offensive metrics, and Charlotte’s depleted lineup. However, both teams have shown volatility in late-game execution, so a close outcome remains likely. This explains why oddsmakers have posted near-even moneylines on both sides (-111 vs. -108).

Recommended Bet: UTSA Moneyline (-111)

Why Moneyline Over Spread?

Given the spread is just 1.5 points, the value difference between the moneyline and the spread is negligible, but moneyline eliminates the risk of a 1-point win or backdoor cover—both very plausible outcomes in what’s expected to be a tight contest.

UTSA’s superior offensive pace, three-point shooting volume, and key playmakers like Primo Spears (19.8 PPG) and Marcus Millender (43.1% from 3PT) offer the game-breaking upside needed in a pick’em matchup. With Charlotte missing Jeremiah Oden and lacking consistent late-game finishers, the slight edge goes to the Roadrunners.

Secondary Bet: Over 147.5 (Lean)

While public betting is split and the total has dipped slightly, the statistical profiles of both teams point toward a higher-scoring contest:

UTSA ranks 99th in adjusted tempo.
Both teams allow over 75 points per game.
UTSA’s three-point frequency and scoring output (76.9 PPG) are strong indicators of shootout potential.
Charlotte has given up 80+ in three of their last five games.

That said, there is slight risk with Charlotte’s slower tempo, so lean over, but not as strong as the UTSA moneyline.

Player Props & Value Angles

If player props are available, here are two high-value angles:

Primo Spears – Over 19.5 Points
Spears has eclipsed this number in 5 of his last 7 games, including a 40-point outburst against Tulsa. Charlotte lacks a true on-ball stopper, especially with Oden out.
Marcus Millender – Over 2.5 Made Threes
Given Charlotte allows over 33% from beyond the arc and Millender’s elite shooting clip (43.1%), expect him to get volume from deep, especially in UTSA’s up-tempo offense.

If alternative lines are available, consider:

UTSA -3.5 at +150 or better for a value play with stronger upside in case of late fouling or momentum runs.

Key Mismatches & Impact Factors

Three-Point Disparity:
UTSA makes 3 more threes per game than Charlotte on significantly better shooting. That’s a +9 point differential in expected output—a huge margin in a near pick’em line.
Injury Impact:
With Charlotte missing Jeremiah Oden, their interior defense and rebounding—already weak—take a bigger hit. UTSA’s modest rebounding edge (29.5 to 28.1) becomes more significant in the absence of a key frontcourt presence.
Ball Pressure:
UTSA averages 9.7 steals per game, which could disrupt Charlotte’s half-court offense that relies heavily on precision. Turnovers leading to transition threes could swing momentum.

Narrative & Motivation

Though neither team is playing for a top seed, both are desperate to enter the AAC tournament with some momentum. UTSA, with a slightly older roster and more offensive versatility, appears better positioned to deliver in a pressure moment. Primo Spears is a player capable of putting the team on his back—Charlotte does not currently have a similarly reliable shot-creator in the clutch.

Final Thoughts

In what’s likely to be a high-variance, late-game-decided matchup, the UTSA Roadrunners offer the better value play. They bring a superior offense, more effective perimeter shooting, and the hottest scorer in the matchup (Spears), all while Charlotte battles inconsistency and injury issues.

✅ Best Bet: UTSA Moneyline (-111)
✅ Lean: Over 147.5
🎯 Player Prop Targets: Primo Spears Over Points, Millender Over Threes
📊 Predicted Score: UTSA 77, Charlotte 73

Expect an entertaining finale as both teams try to flip the narrative heading into the AAC tournament. UTSA, with a more explosive offense and better perimeter tools, should narrowly escape Halton Arena with a win.