The air in St. Louis is buzzing with anticipation as the Atlanta Braves roll into Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, July 12, 2025. This isn’t just another game; it’s a pivotal moment in the season for both teams, each looking to make a statement. The Cardinals, with their solid home record and recent momentum, are ready to defend their turf against a Braves squad eager to turn their season around. This is a matchup filled with intriguing storylines, key player performances, and strategic battles that promise an exciting afternoon of baseball.
The Cardinals currently hold a respectable 50-44 record, sitting comfortably in their division. The Braves, on the other hand, are looking to improve their 40-52 standing. This game is the second in a three-game series, adding an extra layer of intensity as both teams vie for series control.
Let’s dive deep into why the Cardinals are the team to watch in this exciting contest.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals will be Erick Fedde, who holds a 3-9 record with a 4.79 ERA over 94 2/3 innings pitched this season. While his win-loss record might not jump off the page, Fedde has been a workhorse, consistently taking the ball and giving his team a chance. His ability to limit hard contact and navigate through lineups will be crucial against the Braves’ hitters.
The Atlanta Braves, at the time of this writing, have yet to name their starting pitcher for this game. This uncertainty can sometimes create a challenge for the opposing team, but it also means the Braves might be digging deep into their bullpen or calling up a fresh arm, which could be a wild card. However, facing a known quantity like Fedde gives the Cardinals a slight advantage in preparation.
Team Performance: Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals (50-44 Overall, 28-19 at Home)
The Cardinals have been playing well, especially at home, where they boast a strong 28-19 record. Their offense has been a consistent force, ranking 11th in MLB with an average of 4.6 runs per game. They are also 10th in batting average at .252 and have hit 94 home runs this season. Key offensive contributors include Brendan Donovan, who leads the team with a .296 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. Willson Contreras has been a power threat with 12 home runs and 52 runs batted in, while Lars Nootbaar also has 12 home runs. Nolan Arenado continues to be a steady presence with a .305 on-base percentage.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals’ staff has a combined ERA of 4.07, ranking 19th in MLB. While not top-tier, they have shown resilience and the ability to close out games. Their bullpen has been reliable, which is essential in tight matchups.
Atlanta Braves (40-52 Overall, 17-30 on the Road)
The Braves have faced a challenging season, particularly on the road, where their record stands at 17-30. Their offense ranks 25th in MLB, averaging 4 runs per game, and they hold a .241 team batting average. Despite their struggles, they have hit 100 home runs, ranking 15th in the league, indicating their ability to hit for power. Matt Olson leads their offensive charge with 17 home runs and 58 runs batted in, and Austin Riley is batting a solid .273. Marcell Ozuna has contributed with 12 home runs and 63 walks, while Ozzie Albies has added 7 home runs.
The Braves’ pitching staff has a combined ERA of 3.83, which is 13th in MLB, suggesting their pitching has been more effective than their offense. They also rank second in the majors with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Injury Report: A Factor in the Outcome
Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance, and both the Cardinals and Braves are dealing with their share.
For the Cardinals, Iván Herrera (hamstring) is on the 10-day injured list, Jordan Walker (appendicitis) is on the 10-day injured list, and Zack Thompson (lat) is on the 60-day injured list. Additionally, Nolan Arenado was removed from Friday’s game with a sprained right index finger, and Lars Nootbaar (ribs) is batting fifth and playing left field, indicating he’s playing through an injury.
The Braves have several key pitchers sidelined, including Joe Jimenez (knee) on the 60-day injured list, AJ Smith-Shawver (calf/elbow) on the 60-day injured list, Chris Sale (rib) on the 60-day injured list, Reynaldo López (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list, and Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) on the 60-day injured list. Austin Riley was also removed from Friday’s game with lower-abdominal tightness. These pitching injuries are particularly impactful for the Braves, especially with their starting pitcher for this game still unannounced.
The Cardinals, while having some key position players out or playing through injuries, have their starting pitcher confirmed, which provides some stability. The Braves’ extensive pitching injuries, coupled with the uncertainty of their starter and Austin Riley’s recent injury, could put them at a disadvantage.
Why I’m Confident in the Cardinals Moneyline -125 Prediction
First, the Cardinals’ home advantage is significant. Their 28-19 home record demonstrates their ability to perform well in front of their fans at Busch Stadium. This environment often provides an extra boost, both offensively and defensively.
Second, the pitching matchup, while not featuring an ace for the Cardinals, still favors them due to the stability of Erick Fedde starting versus the Braves’ unannounced starter. Fedde, despite his record, has been a consistent presence, and the Cardinals know what to expect from him. The Braves’ pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, which could lead to a less experienced or less effective pitcher taking the mound, or a reliance on a bullpen that might be fatigued from recent games.
Third, the Cardinals’ offense has been more consistent and productive than the Braves’ this season. They rank higher in runs per game and team batting average. While the Braves have power, their overall offensive output has been lower. The Cardinals’ ability to get on base and drive in runs, especially at home, is a strong indicator of their potential to score enough runs to win.
Fourth, recent trends and overall team performance data point towards the Cardinals. They have a better overall record and a significantly better home record. When playing as favorites, the Cardinals have a solid winning percentage. The Braves, conversely, have struggled as underdogs, especially on the road.
Based on these combined insights, the Cardinals are well-positioned to secure a victory in this game.
Predicted Scores from Key Models
Here’s a summary of what various reputable sources and models suggest for the Cardinals vs. Braves game on July 12, 2025:
- FanGraphs: While FanGraphs provides win probabilities, a common score prediction seen across various analyses for this matchup is Cardinals 5, Braves 4.
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: The overall team strength and matchup analysis lean towards a Cardinals advantage.
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: This model predicts a Cardinals win (58.1% probability), aligning with the idea that the Cardinals are the favored team.
- The Action Network: This source explicitly provides a Score Prediction: Cardinals 5, Braves 4, with win probabilities favoring the Cardinals at 54%.
- Massey Ratings: Massey Ratings indicated a Cardinals win (51.0% confidence) for the July 11th game, and their overall assessment of team strength would likely continue to favor the Cardinals in this home matchup.
Considering these various analytical perspectives, a predicted score of Cardinals 5, Braves 4 is a reasonable expectation for this game.
Conclusion
As the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves prepare to clash at Busch Stadium, all eyes will be on this intriguing matchup. The Cardinals, with their strong home performance, consistent offense, and the stability of their starting pitcher, appear to have a clear advantage. The Braves, battling injuries and an unannounced starter, will need to bring their best to overcome the challenges.
This game promises to be a compelling display of baseball, with key players on both sides looking to make an impact. Whether it’s the Cardinals’ powerful lineup or the Braves’ resilient pitching, fans can expect a competitive contest. Regardless of the outcome, this game will undoubtedly add another exciting chapter to the 2025 MLB season. Look forward to a strategic battle on the mound and powerful swings at the plate as these two teams leave it all on the field.
My pick: Cardinals moneyline -125 LOSE
