Yankees vs Orioles: Tight Race in the East Heats Up

Date:  Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Arena: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

The American League East features one of the most intense divisional races in baseball, with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees vying for the top spot. As these two teams meet for a three-game series on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, let’s dive into a detailed analysis of each team, the starting pitchers, and why betting on under 9 total runs is a sensible choice.

Yankees’ Recent Form

The New York Yankees have been on a roller coaster this season. After losing three out of four games to the Orioles from April 29 to May 2, the Yankees have managed to turn their season around with a 30-11 record since that series. They have held the division lead since May 14 and currently sport a 5-5 record over their past 10 games. However, the Yankees are looking to avoid their second three-game losing streak of the season after being outscored 17-7 in the last two games against the Boston Red Sox.

Despite their recent struggles, the Yankees have shown resilience. In their last game, Aaron Judge hit his 26th home run of the season, though the team collectively struggled with six hits and 14 strikeouts. Additionally, first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s health is a concern after he exited the last game with a lower arm injury due to a collision.

Orioles’ Momentum

The Baltimore Orioles have been equally impressive, boasting a 27-13 record since their last series against the Yankees. With 47 wins, they hold the second-most victories in the American League. The Orioles have been particularly strong recently, winning 18 of their last 24 games since dropping three straight at St. Louis on May 20-22.

The Orioles are coming off a successful series against the Philadelphia Phillies, where they took two out of three games. Their recent performance includes an 8-3 victory powered by four home runs, showcasing their offensive firepower. Gunnar Henderson hit his eighth leadoff homer, while Colton Cowser, Adley Rutschman, and Jordan Westburg also contributed to the home run tally.

Pitching Matchup

The pitching matchup for tonight’s game is intriguing and could be a deciding factor in the outcome.

• Nestor Cortes (Yankees): With a 3-5 record and a 3.59 ERA, Cortes has been a solid performer for the Yankees, especially at home where he boasts a 1.77 ERA. In his last outing, Cortes completed seven innings, allowing two runs on six hits against Kansas City. Historically, Cortes has performed well against the Orioles, holding a 4-1 record with a 2.45 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts).
• Albert Suarez (Orioles): Suarez, filling in for Dean Kremer, has been exceptional with a 3-0 record and a 1.61 ERA. In his recent start against the Atlanta Braves, Suarez pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowing only four hits in a 4-0 victory. This will be Suarez’s first career start against the Yankees, making his performance a key factor to watch.

Batting Averages

Team batting averages provide insight into offensive capabilities and potential run production.

• New York Yankees: The Yankees have a team batting average of .241. While Aaron Judge has been a standout with his 26 home runs, the team has struggled with consistency at the plate, as seen in their recent series against the Red Sox.
• Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles boast a slightly better team batting average of .247. Their lineup has shown depth and power, with players like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman contributing significantly to their recent success.

Top Prediction Models

• PECOTA: 8.5 total runs
• Steamer: 9 total runs
• ZiPS: 8.7 total runs
• THE BAT: 8.1 total runs
• ATC: 8.9 total runs

Picking Under 9 Total Runs

Given the pitching matchup and the current form of both teams, under 9 total runs would be a prudent choice. Here are the reasons why:

1. Strong Starting Pitching: Both Nestor Cortes and Albert Suarez have been in good form. Cortes, with his impressive home ERA, and Suarez, with his stellar season performance, suggest a low-scoring game.
2. Recent Trends: The Yankees’ recent offensive struggles, combined with the Orioles’ solid pitching, indicate that runs may be at a premium. The Yankees’ inability to capitalize with runners in scoring position, as noted by Aaron Judge, further supports this prediction.
3. Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule: Applying the Pythagorean theorem, which predicts winning percentages based on runs scored and allowed, adjusted for the strength of opponents, suggests that both teams have been competitive but not necessarily high-scoring in every game. This mathematical approach supports the underbet, considering both teams’ recent performance metrics.
4. External Conditions: Weather can play a crucial role in baseball games. Yankee Stadium’s conditions, such as wind direction and speed, can affect home run potential. Checking the weather forecast before the game can provide additional assurance for the underbet.
5. Player Injuries and Trends: The potential absence of Anthony Rizzo and the Yankees’ recent offensive inconsistencies further strengthen the case for a low-scoring game. The Orioles, while powerful, may find it challenging to score heavily against Cortes’ home performance.

Final Pick:

Based on the analysis of both teams, the starting pitchers’ statistics, team batting averages, and the additional factors considered, the best pick for tonight’s game is under 9 total runs. This prediction aligns with the average runs forecasted by top MLB prediction models and the detailed examination of recent trends and performances.

PICK: under 9 total runs WIN