Yankees vs. Marlins Series Finale: Can Miami Complete the Sweep?

The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins wrap up their three-game interleague series on Sunday, August 3, 2025, with the Marlins looking for a surprising sweep at loanDepot park. After a wild 13-12 offensive explosion in Game 1 and a dominant 2-0 shutout in Game 2, Miami has all the momentum heading into the finale. But with both teams battling injuries and playoff implications on the line, this matchup promises another intriguing clash of pitching and lineup adjustments.

Yankees Struggling Without Key Stars

The Yankees, sitting at 60-51 and third in the AL East, are in a precarious position in the playoff race. Injuries have decimated their roster, with Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, and Oswaldo Cabrera all sidelined, leaving major gaps in both their lineup and rotation. Right-hander Luis Gil takes the mound in his return from injury, but his command issues (4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 2025) could be a problem against a Marlins team that has already put up 15 runs in this series.

Marlins Riding Momentum Behind Cabrera

Meanwhile, the Marlins (54-55) have clawed their way back into the NL Wild Card conversation and now have a chance to send a statement with a sweep. Edward Cabrera (3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) gets the ball for Miami, bringing his high-strikeout stuff against a depleted Yankees lineup. The Marlins’ offense has been opportunistic, capitalizing on mistakes—something they’ll need to do again if they want to secure a third straight win.

Key Factors to Watch

• Bullpen Fatigue: The Yankees’ relievers were taxed in the 13-12 slugfest, while Miami’s pen is fresh after a complete-game shutout effort.

• Offensive Adjustments: Without Judge, the Yankees lack their usual power threat. Can Giancarlo Stanton or Juan Soto step up?

• Defensive Edge: Miami’s speed and defense have been difference-makers—will they turn key double plays or swipe crucial bases?

With both teams fighting for postseason positioning, this series finale could come down to which club makes fewer mistakes. Will the Yankees salvage a game, or will the Marlins complete the sweep and keep their playoff hopes alive? Stay tuned for our full breakdown and betting prediction.

AI Model Consensus Check

We’ll analyze predictions from top MLB betting models (BetQL, ESPN, SportsLine, PECOTA, and FanGraphs) to establish an average score projection.

Hypothetical Model Averages (for illustration):

• BetQL: NYY 4.2 – MIA 3.8

• ESPN (FPI): NYY 4.0 – MIA 3.5

• SportsLine: NYY 3.9 – MIA 3.7

• PECOTA: NYY 4.1 – MIA 3.6

• FanGraphs: NYY 4.0 – MIA 3.4

Average Model Prediction:

• NYY 4.04 – MIA 3.6

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Yankees:

  • Runs Scored (RS): 4.8/game

  • Runs Allowed (RA): 4.3/game

  • Pythagorean Win% = $55.5\%$ → Projected RS: ~4.5

• Marlins:

  • RS: 4.1/game

  • RA: 4.4/game

  • Pythagorean Win% = $46.5\%$ → Projected RS: ~3.9

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment

• Yankees SOS: 8th toughest

• Marlins SOS: 12th toughest

• Adjustment: Yankees face slightly tougher pitching → -0.2 RS

3. Injuries & Trends

• Yankees Missing:

  • Aaron Judge (MVP-caliber bat), Gerrit Cole (ace), Clarke Schmidt (SP), Oswaldo Cabrera (key bench bat) → -0.5 RS impact

• Marlins Missing:

  • Max Meyer (SP), Braxton Garrett (SP), Griffin Conine (power bat) → -0.3 RS impact

4. Pitching Matchup

• Luis Gil (NYY):

  • 2025: 4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (struggles with command)

• Edward Cabrera (MIA):

  • 2025: 3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (strong K rate, but inconsistent)

• Edge: Slight advantage Marlins (Gil is returning from injury)

5. Recent Form & Bullpen

• Yankees: Lost last 2 to Marlins (bullpen taxed after 13-12 slugfest)

• Marlins: Bullpen fresh after 2-0 shutout

Final Custom Prediction:

• NYY 3.8 – MIA 4.1

Combined Prediction (AI Models + My Model)

Final Predicted Score: New York Yankees 4 – Miami Marlins 3

Pick

• Take the New York Yankees -104 Moneyline. ***LOSE***