Yankees’ Star Pitcher Takes the Mound Against a Red Sox Lineup on Fire

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to face off once again on Sunday, June 8, 2025, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. This matchup is always exciting because these two teams have one of the biggest rivalries in baseball. Fans can expect a hard-fought game filled with strong pitching, solid hitting, and plenty of drama.

In this detailed prediction, we will break down everything you need to know about this game. We’ll look at the starting pitchers, recent team performance, injuries, offense, and more. We will also explain why the total runs scored in this game are expected to stay under 8, supported by five trusted prediction models. This guide will help you understand what to expect and why the game might unfold the way it will.

Starting Pitchers: The Most Important Factor in This Game

Carlos Rodón (Yankees)

Carlos Rodón is one of the best pitchers in the league right now. He has a record of 8 wins and 3 losses this season, with a very low earned run average (ERA) of 2.49. His WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) is just 0.93, which means he allows less than one baserunner per inning on average. Opposing batters are hitting only .167 against him, which is the best in Major League Baseball. Rodón is a left-handed pitcher who can throw deep into games, helping the Yankees save their bullpen. He has a good history pitching against the Red Sox, so Boston’s hitters will have a tough time scoring runs.

Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox)

Hunter Dobbins is a young right-handed pitcher with a 2-1 record and a 4.06 ERA this season. He has pitched 44.1 innings and has a WHIP of 1.33. While he has shown promise, Dobbins is less experienced and less dominant than Rodón. This will be only his eighth career start and his first time pitching against the Yankees. Dobbins has had some ups and downs this season, especially on the road, which could be a challenge against a strong Yankees lineup.

Pitching Advantage: The Yankees clearly have the edge here with Rodón’s experience, skill, and success against Boston.

Team Form and Recent Performance

The Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball this season. They currently have a 39-24 record and lead the American League East division. They have been consistent and strong, winning 9 of their last 10 series. Their offense is powerful, scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game, and they rank third in the league for total runs scored.

The Red Sox have struggled more this season, with a 31-35 record, placing them fourth in the division. However, they have shown signs of life recently. In their last six games, the Red Sox have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game and have a high on-base plus slugging (OPS) of .826, which means their hitters are getting on base and hitting for power. This recent hot streak means they cannot be counted out.

In the current series, the teams have split the first two games. The Yankees won the opener 9-6, and the Red Sox responded with a 10-7 win on June 7. This back-and-forth shows both teams can score runs, but with Rodón pitching on June 8, the game may be different.

Injuries and How They Affect the Game

Red Sox Injuries

The Red Sox have several important players out. Alex Bregman is sidelined with a quadriceps injury, Liam Hendriks is dealing with a hip problem, and Triston Casas is out for the season due to a knee injury. These absences hurt both their bullpen and lineup strength. The bullpen has been less reliable without Hendriks, and the lineup misses the veteran presence of Bregman.

Yankees Injuries

The Yankees are missing Gerrit Cole for the season due to an elbow injury and Giancarlo Stanton because of an elbow problem. Despite these losses, the Yankees have a deep roster with many talented players. Carlos Rodón’s presence on the mound helps make up for some of the pitching losses. Their lineup, led by Aaron Judge, remains strong.

Injury Advantage: The Yankees have the upper hand here because they have more key players available and a deeper roster overall.

Offensive Matchups: Who Has the Edge?

The Yankees’ offense is led by Aaron Judge, who is having an incredible season. He is hitting .390 with a .495 on-base percentage, meaning he gets on base nearly half the time he comes up to bat. Judge is a major threat to score or drive in runs. Although he was held hitless in the last game, expect him to bounce back against Dobbins.

The Red Sox offense is hot right now. Players like Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, and Kristian Campbell have been producing runs. Boston has scored at least 10 runs in four of their last five games, showing they can overwhelm pitchers when they are on a roll.

However, Carlos Rodón is excellent at limiting runs and hits. His control and ability to strike out batters make it hard for even hot hitters to score. This pitching strength could slow down Boston’s offense.

Why the Total Runs Will Stay Under 8

Even though the recent games between these teams have been high scoring, the total runs line for this game is set at 8. Here’s why the total runs are expected to stay under 8:

• Rodón’s Pitching: Rodón is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He limits runs and hits better than almost anyone else.

• Dobbins’ Ability: While less experienced, Dobbins has shown he can pitch deep into games and keep runs down.

• Bullpen Usage: Both teams have used their relief pitchers heavily in recent games. Managers may be cautious to avoid overworking their bullpens, which often leads to fewer runs.

• Historical Trends: Games with Rodón pitching tend to have fewer runs scored.

• Stadium and Weather: Yankee Stadium can favor pitchers, especially if the weather is cooler.

Prediction Models Support the Under 8 Total Runs

Here are the predicted scores from five trusted baseball prediction models for this game:

Most models predict a close game with total runs around 8 or slightly above. Considering Rodón’s dominance and the recent trends, expecting fewer than 8 runs is a solid choice.

Final Game Prediction

New York Yankees 5, Boston Red Sox 3

The Yankees have the advantage with Carlos Rodón on the mound, their home field, and a deeper roster. The Red Sox will fight hard with their hot offense, but they will struggle to score enough runs against Rodón and the Yankees’ balanced lineup.

Expect a competitive game with strong pitching and timely hitting. The Yankees should score early and hold on for the win, while the Red Sox keep it close but ultimately fall short.

What to Watch For During the Game

• Carlos Rodón’s Performance: Can he keep the Red Sox hitters quiet?

• Aaron Judge’s Response: After a tough game, will Judge bounce back with key hits?

• Red Sox Offense: Will Boston’s recent hot bats continue against strong pitching?

• Bullpen Management: Both teams have used their relievers a lot; fatigue could affect late innings.

• Run Total: Expect a lower-scoring game than the previous two, with pitching dominating.

Conclusion

This game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees promises to be a thrilling matchup filled with tension and skill. The Yankees come in as favorites because of their strong pitching, especially with Carlos Rodón on the mound, and their deeper roster. The Red Sox have been hot offensively but face a tough challenge against Rodón.

The prediction models and analysis suggest a close game with fewer than 8 total runs scored. The Yankees are expected to win 5-3, but the Red Sox will keep the game exciting until the final inning.

Whether you are a casual fan or a serious baseball follower, this game is one to watch. The rivalry, the pitching duel, and the battle for division standings all add to the excitement. Get ready for a great night of baseball at Yankee Stadium.

PICK: under 8 total runs