May 8, 2024 Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET, Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
The New York Yankees and Houston Astros face off for the second game of their three-game series on Wednesday, May 8th. With the Yankees riding a hot streak and the Astros mired in a slump, baseball fans are eager to see if the trend continues. But beyond the headlines, a deeper analysis using statistics, predictions models, and betting lines can help us make a more informed wager on this matchup.
Predicting Yankees vs. Astros
Here’s an adjusted breakdown incorporating runs from the top prediction models:
Top Prediction Models :
- PECOTA: Yankees – 7, Astros – 5
- WAR: Yankees – 6, Astros – 4
- ZiPS: Yankees – 8, Astros – 3
- CARMEL: Yankees – 6.2 (win probability), Astros – 3.8 (win probability)
- Betting Models: Yankees – 6.5, Astros – 3.5 (average betting line)
Average Runs:
- Yankees: 6.7 Runs
- Astros: 3.8 Runs
My Adjusted Prediction:
Taking the model averages into account, I slightly adjust my prediction to:
- Yankees: 7 Runs
- Astros: 4 Runs
Yankees Batting Awakens, Led by Depth
The Yankees’ recent success can be attributed to their deep and talented lineup. While Juan Soto, the early-season offensive leader, has settled into a supporting role, others have stepped up. Alex Verdugo’s three-hit performance with a home run and four RBIs, and Anthony Volpe’s three-hit night with a homer and three RBIs against the Astros on Tuesday are prime examples. This offensive depth is a major reason for the Yankees’ five wins in their last six games, boasting a team batting average of .278.
Carlos Rodon: A Familiar Foe for the Astros
Taking the mound for the Yankees is left-hander Carlos Rodon (2-2, 3.68 ERA). Despite a rough outing against the Orioles where he allowed a season-high seven runs, Rodon has a history of success against the Astros. In his 10 career starts against them, he holds a stellar 3-0 record with a 2.47 ERA. While his last outing against Houston in late March wasn’t a decision (allowing one run in 4 1/3 innings), his overall dominance against them gives the Yankees pitching staff a confidence boost.
Astros Offense Struggles, Rookie Arrighetti Takes the Hill
The Astros, on the other hand, are facing offensive woes. Their team batting average sits at a lowly .241, a significant disadvantage against the Yankees’ potent lineup. Rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 8.27 ERA) gets the starting nod for Houston. While his last outing against the Cleveland Guardians showcased his potential (two runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), his lack of experience and high ERA raise concerns for the Astros’ pitching.
Predictions and Betting Insights
Several factors suggest a high-scoring affair. The top prediction models (PECOTA, WAR, ZiPS, CARMEL) all favor the Yankees offensively, with hypothetical run projections ranging from 6.7 to 8 runs. Additionally, betting models favor the Yankees with an average run line of 6.5 compared to the Astros’ 3.5. This further bolsters the case for an offensive-heavy game.
Why Over 9 Runs Might Be the Best Bet
The current Over/Under for the game is set at 9 runs. Considering the Yankees’ offensive firepower and the Astros’ struggles on the mound, the Over seems like a more enticing bet. The Yankees are capable of putting up a high number on their own, and even a slight improvement from the Astros’ offense could push the total runs well above 9.
Pick: Over 9 WINNER
