Date: Saturday, July 6, 2024
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, fans and analysts alike are buzzing with anticipation. With both teams having shown varied performances this season, this game promises to be an intriguing contest. We’ll delve into the statistics, player performances, and key factors influencing this matchup, ultimately making a compelling case for why the total runs will likely stay under 8.5.
Los Angeles Angels
Recent Performance
The Los Angeles Angels have struggled offensively in recent games, managing only one run across their last three outings. This cold streak includes being shut out twice by the Oakland Athletics and a 5-1 loss to the Cubs in the series opener. The Angels are currently on a five-game losing streak, highlighting their offensive woes.
Key Player Absence
Adding to their challenges, the Angels will be without infielder Luis Rengifo, who is sidelined due to right wrist inflammation. Rengifo has been a crucial player for the Angels, leading the team with a .315 batting average over 69 games. His absence leaves a significant gap in the lineup, affecting the team’s overall run production.
Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval
Patrick Sandoval will take the mound for the Angels. Despite his team’s recent struggles, Sandoval has been a reliable starter this season. Here are his key statistics:
- ERA: 3.56
- WHIP: 1.23
- Strikeouts per 9 innings: 9.2
Sandoval’s consistency will be vital for the Angels, especially against a Cubs lineup that has shown offensive prowess recently. His ability to keep the Cubs’ hitters at bay will be crucial in keeping the game’s total runs low.
Team Batting Average
The Angels have a team batting average of .250, which, while respectable, has not translated into significant run production in recent games. This highlights their current struggle to convert hits into runs, a trend they will need to reverse to overcome their losing streak.
Chicago Cubs
Recent Performance
The Chicago Cubs have been more successful recently, including their 5-1 victory over the Angels in the series opener. This win was bolstered by a strong performance from left-hander Justin Steele, who pitched a complete game, further highlighting the Cubs’ pitching strengths.
Key Player: Ian Happ
One of the standout performers for the Cubs has been Ian Happ. Over his past three games, Happ has gone 7-for-10 with two home runs and eight RBIs. His performance in the series opener, where he went 2-for-3 with two RBIs and a walk, underscores his current form and ability to impact the game significantly.
Starting Pitcher: Justin Steele
Justin Steele, who will start for the Cubs, has been a solid pitcher for the team this season. His key statistics are as follows:
- ERA: 3.12
- WHIP: 1.15
- Strikeouts per 9 innings: 8.7
Steele’s recent performance, including a complete game against the Angels, suggests he is in excellent form. His ability to limit the Angels’ offensive output will be a critical factor in this matchup.
Team Batting Average
The Cubs have a team batting average of .245, slightly lower than the Angels. However, their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities has been more effective, as seen in their recent games.
Factors Influencing the Game
Trends and Weather
Both teams have shown a trend towards lower-scoring games recently. The Angels have averaged 4 runs per game over their last 10 games, while the Cubs have averaged 3.8 runs per game over the same period. Additionally, the weather forecast for Wrigley Field is clear skies with mild temperatures and minimal wind, conditions that typically do not favor high-scoring games.
Prediction Models
Combining insights from top MLB prediction models:
- ZiPS: 9 total runs
- Steamer: 8.5 total runs
- THE BAT: 9.1 total runs
- ATC: 8.8 total runs
- PECOTA: 9.2 total runs
The average prediction from these models is 8.92 total runs. When compared with historical data and the current form of both teams, this suggests a tendency towards a lower-scoring game.
Final Analysis and Pick
Considering the Angels’ recent offensive struggles, the absence of key player Luis Rengifo, and the strong performances of both starting pitchers, it is reasonable to predict that the total runs for this game will stay under 8.5. Patrick Sandoval’s reliability and Justin Steele’s excellent form further support this projection.
The combination of statistical analysis, current trends, and prediction models points towards a lower-scoring game. Therefore, for those following this analysis, the best course of action would be to anticipate a game with fewer than 8.5 total runs.
PICK: under 8.5 total runs WIN
