Lauri Markkanen, Jazz<\/strong><\/p>\nI highlighted Markkanen\u2019s jaw-dropping recent play last week in my Second-Quarter Awards column, but it bears repeating: He\u2019s averaged a shade under 27 points and nine rebounds per game on 52\/44\/88 shooting splits since mid-November, and performing better than ever with the biggest workload of his career (7.8 3-point attempts and seven free-throw attempts per game, a 25.6% usage rate).<\/p>\n
The sixth-year forward is combining usage and efficiency to a degree that evokes some iconic names, establishing himself as a nightmarish cover on and off the ball. Will Hardy has moved Markkanen all over the chessboard, taking advantage of his combination of size (7 feet, 240 pounds) and shooting skill to damage defenses in all sorts of ways: knocking down catch-and-shoot looks, posting up smaller players on mismatches, taking bigger ones off the dribble, working either end of the pick-and-roll, you name it. The Jazz have cooled considerably since their 10-3 start, but they still boast a top-five offense, thanks in large part to Markkanen\u2019s shot-making and versatility: Utah has outscored opponents by five points-per-100 with him on the court, and has been<\/em> outscored by 6.2 points-per-100 with him off it.<\/p>\nJudging by most of the various all-in-one advanced statistical metrics, Markkanen has been, at worst,<\/em> one of the six best frontcourt players in the West this season. He has also played about 200 more minutes than LeBron James, 420 more than Paul George, 480 more than Williamson, 600 more than Davis, and more than twice<\/em> as many minutes as Jaren Jackson Jr. This is a case where quality meets quantity; as with SGA, the question should be whether Markkanen winds up starting at his home arena, not if he winds up staying in Salt Lake City for All-Star Weekend at all. He belongs there.<\/p>\nTyrese Haliburton, Pacers<\/strong><\/p>\nLike Gilgeous-Alexander\u2019s Thunder and Markkanen\u2019s Jazz, Haliburton\u2019s Pacers were widely expected to rank among the league\u2019s worst teams, more likely to vie for the right to draft Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson than contend for a postseason berth. And like SGA and Lauri\u2019s squads, Indiana has dramatically overperformed those paltry expectations, thanks largely to Haliburton\u2019s work as an offensive engine and all-around conductor.<\/p>\n
Haliburton has been the straw that stirs the drink in Indiana, taking the reins of Rick Carlisle\u2019s offense and blossoming into one of the NBA\u2019s highest-volume, most effective pick-and-roll playmakers. He\u2019s vying for the league lead in assists with James Harden \u2014 they\u2019re the only two players averaging more than 20 points and 10 assists per game this season, though Jokic and Trae Young are knocking on the door \u2014 and has shown a particular knack for dissecting defenses to create the highest-efficiency looks on the board. Only Jokic, Young and Russell Westbrook have more assists on buckets at the rim than Haliburton, and nobody has set up more 3-pointers, according to PBPstats.<\/p>\n
Combine that playmaking feel with the ability to fill it up from long distance \u2014 Haliburton is shooting just under 40% from 3-point land on more than seven attempts per game, forcing opposing defenses to pick their poison when he\u2019s sharing the floor with Buddy Hield (42.6% on 9.1 attempts a night), Andrew Nembhard (37.6% from deep) and north-south machete Bennedict Mathurin (17.2 points per game off the bench) \u2014 and you\u2019ve got the heartbeat of a surprisingly potent attack. The Pacers have scored like a top-10 offense with Haliburton on the floor, like far and away the league\u2019s worst unit without him, and sat in sixth place in the East before an ugly fall that\u2019ll keep him on the shelf for at least a couple of weeks. There are a number of deserving candidates for Eastern guard spots; in terms of per-possession production and overall impact, Haliburton\u2019s case stands up well next to every one of them.<\/p>\n
Legit cases<\/h2>\n
While Gilgeous-Alexander, Markkanen and Haliburton seem like locks to me, they\u2019re not the only top performers with a case for a career-first All-Star appearance. Consider, if you will:<\/p>\n
De\u2019Aaron Fox, Kings<\/strong><\/p>\nDomantas Sabonis will likely get his third All-Star nod for helping spark the beam-lighting, scoreboard-igniting turnaround in Sacramento. Deservedly so: Arvydas\u2019 baby boy has essentially been an A-minus Jokic at Golden 1 Center, pulverizing fools on the low block while leading the league in rebounding and posting one of the highest assist rates ever for a center. But while we should acknowledge how instrumental Sabonis has been to Sacramento\u2019s explosive third-ranked offense, we shouldn\u2019t overlook what his partner in the two-man game has been doing to propel the Kings\u2019 exciting rise up the standings.<\/p>\n
Fox is scoring and rebounding at his best per-minute clip as a pro, and finishing at the rim and from midrange better than ever. He\u2019s taking (and making) more catch-and-shoot threes, and posting the lowest turnover rate of his career. He\u2019s also been one of the league\u2019s premier sources of crunch-time offense: Only DeMar DeRozan has scored more points in \u201cclutch\u201d situations than Fox, who has shot a scorching 40-for-65 from the field (61.5%) in the final five minutes of games where the score\u2019s within five points, and 17-for-29 (58.6%) when it\u2019s a one-possession game in the final three minutes. Sacramento owns the NBA\u2019s most efficient clutch offense, and Fox\u2019s ability to beat defenders off the dribble, get into the paint and wreak havoc \u2014 whether by hitting the brakes and getting to his stepback, carving a path all the way to the rim, drawing defenders before dishing off to an open teammate, or drawing a foul to head to the free-throw line \u2014 has played a massive role in that late-game success.<\/p>\n
Some voters might look askance at the fact that the Kings have been drilled in the minutes Fox plays without Sabonis, or wind up slotting players who\u2019ve been more productive in fewer games\/minutes \u2014 superstars like Stephen Curry, Devin Booker and Damian Lillard \u2014 ahead of Fox in the Western guard hierarchy. Some, though, might give the nod to Fox\u2019s durability, availability and contributions to lifting a perennial also-ran to the No. 4 seed in the conference \u2014 a reward for his career-best play, and an acknowledgment of one of the best stories of the season thus far.<\/p>\n
C.J. McCollum, Pelicans<\/strong><\/p>\nThe veteran sniper\u2019s chilly start to the season, which saw him averaging 16.9 points per game on sub-40% shooting through 20 games, combined with the aforementioned \u201cmore productive in fewer games\/minutes\u201d group might scuttle his candidacy. But McCollum getting as hot as just about anybody in the league for the last month \u2014 27 points, 6.1 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game, shooting 48% from 3-point land on more than nine attempts a night \u2014 might drum up some support for his work in helping to keep New Orleans afloat amid injuries to both Williamson and<\/em> Brandon Ingram.<\/p>\nThe union boss and podcast professional\u2019s case might also get a boost from that most contentious of media terms: narrative<\/em>. With Mike Conley finally shedding the somewhat ignominious moniker of \u201cbest player never to make an All-Star team\u201d in 2021, McCollum \u2014 one of just four active players with at least 12,000 points, 2,000 rebounds and 2,000 assists in his career but without an All-Star berth to his name, with the highest-scoring average of the bunch \u2014 might be the next man up. Might some members of the voting public see fit to recognize McCollum\u2019s strong recent play, the fact that he leads third-seeded New Orleans in minutes, and the Pelicans\u2019 surprising-in-some-quarters standing as the West\u2019s No. 3 seed with \u2026 well, not a \u201clifetime achievement award,\u201d per se, but a slight thumb on the scale when weighing his candidacy this season?<\/p>\nWhether or not they do, McCollum sounds sanguine about his standing in the league writ large: \u201cI get paid like an All-Star. If it happens, that\u2019s great. If not, I am treated very well on the 1st and the 15th.\u201d Counting your blessings is probably a little easier when you\u2019ve got nine figures worth of them, but still: three cheers for perspective!<\/p>\n
Jalen Brunson, Knicks<\/strong><\/p>\nBrunson\u2019s in kind of a similar spot in the East \u2014 and, coincidentally, having a pretty similar season \u2014 to Fox in the West, as the ball-handling complement to a big man with eye-popping numbers and a superior advanced statistical profile.<\/p>\n
The 26-year-old lead guard has been everything New York\u2019s brass could\u2019ve hoped for when they targeted him in free agency. He\u2019s been a rock-solid source of high-efficiency offense, averaging a career-high 22.4 points and 6.3 assists per game while shooting 39.4% from deep, getting to the foul line more often than ever and turning the ball over less<\/em> frequently than ever. He has also helped nudge Knicks power forward Julius Randle toward finishing rather than creating; the result has been an even better start for Randle than he had during his 2021 All-NBA campaign, a rising tide that has lifted New York to a surprising seventh in offensive efficiency.<\/p>\nWith his balletic footwork and killer array of fakes and feints, Brunson\u2019s been excellent when calling his own number. New York has scored 1.19 points per possession that features the Villanova product attacking in isolation, according to Second Spectrum, third-best out of 72 players to log at least 100 isos. (Behind, as luck would have it, only Haliburton and Fox.) That gift for one-on-one orchestration has made Brunson a dependable option late in games: He\u2019s tied with Fox in clutch scoring, shooting 52.4% from the field in crunch time.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not sure that Brunson\u2019s stellar offensive numbers and role in the Knicks\u2019 ascent to the East\u2019s no. 6 seed will be enough to earn him a guard spot, though \u2014 not with him trailing by a mile in the fan vote (the only New York guard to show up on the second round of returns<\/a> was Derrick Rose<\/em>) and with a handful of other former All-Stars with their own gaudy individual stats all in a competitive mix. But if voters give him credit for where the Knicks sit in the standings compared to, say, the Hawks and Bulls \u2014 and if they consider that Brunson\u2019s played more games and minutes than Darius Garland and Kyrie Irving \u2014 he might have a real chance at being the first Knick guard to make an All-Star team since Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell in 2001, and the first Knick point<\/em> guard to do it since Mark Jackson in 1989. (It\u2019s been a \u2026 pretty rough couple of decades, you guys.)<\/p>\nThe best-team effect<\/h2>\n
It can be tricky to make All-Star cases based on the principle that The Best Teams Should Get Multiple Guys. It is<\/em> something that voters consider, though \u2014 and, depending on how things shake out, it\u2019s a factor that could lead to a few first-timers. Such as:<\/p>\nJaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, Grizzlies<\/strong><\/p>\nBane looked like a surefire All-Star in the season\u2019s opening weeks, averaging a shade under 25-5-5 while shooting 45% from 3-point range before suffering a toe injury that cost him more than a month. Jackson\u2019s been one of the league\u2019s most dominant defensive players \u2014 and arguably one of its best overall, on a per-possession basis \u2014 since returning from his own foot injury in mid-November. The bet here is that all the missed games prevent either from joining Ja Morant in Utah; if other candidates wind up falling by the wayside, though, it wouldn\u2019t be shocking to see either (or both?) get a look considering the major roles they\u2019ve played for a Memphis team that has the West\u2019s best net rating and continues to joust with the Nuggets for the top spot in the conference.<\/p>\n
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets<\/strong><\/p>\nIt\u2019s impossible to overstate just how perfect a fit Gordon has been between Jokic and Jamal Murray for West-leading Denver. He\u2019s excellent at moving off the ball, hunting open space and finishing damn near everything he gets his hands on near the basket; he\u2019s scoring 1.52 points per possession finished off a cut, according to Synergy, shooting a bonkers 83.8% on those plays. He\u2019s a versatile defender who\u2019s become Michael Malone\u2019s No. 1 option against opponents\u2019 best scorers across multiple positions, from big wings like LeBron and Kawhi Leonard to point guards like SGA and Dejounte Murray. He attacks the glass on both ends, he can knock down catch-and-shoot threes \u2026 he does exactly what the Nuggets need him to do on both ends at a high level, to the tune of just under 17 points and seven rebounds in 30 minutes per game on 59% shooting. The question facing voters: Is being the textbook definition of \u201ca star in your role\u201d for the best team in the conference enough to outshine those doing more in larger roles on teams with fewer wins? Maybe not. But Gordon\u2019s overall two-way play makes that a tougher call than you might think.<\/p>\n
Nic Claxton, Nets<\/strong><\/p>\nBrooklyn being a handful of games behind the Celtics for first place in the East, with Durant and Irving both likely to earn selections, probably renders this a moot point. And I wouldn\u2019t blame you for thinking we shouldn\u2019t be considering a guy who shoots seven times a game, and hardly ever does it beyond arm\u2019s length from the rim, in the same breath as the top offensive engines in the sport. It\u2019s worth noting, though, that a lot of the advanced stats love<\/em> Claxton due to his high-efficiency offensive game and point-preventing work as a rim protector \u2014 he leads the league in field-goal percentage and ranks second in block percentage \u2014 and that he\u2019s played an integral part in unlocking the switching scheme that\u2019s vaulted the Nets from the bottom of the defensive rankings all the way up to the top 10 in points allowed per possession. There\u2019s a similar case to be made for Claxton\u2019s fellow New York big man, Mitchell Robinson, whose presence as a putbacks-and-lob-dunks finisher, box-out road-grader and interior shot deterrent have been key elements of the Knicks\u2019 uptick; it\u2019d be a sizable surprise, though, if either got a real look in a crowded Eastern frontcourt.<\/p>\nThe long shots<\/h2>\n
A few more dudes who\u2019ll likely fall short for one reason or another, but who have opened some eyes with their play:<\/p>\n
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves<\/strong><\/p>\nIf you\u2019ve found yourself focusing primarily on how awkward and underwhelming the start to the Rudy Gobert era has been, you might have missed that the Wolves \u2014 for all their flaws and foibles \u2014 are only two games out of fifth in the West. The biggest reason for that? Edwards, who has averaged 25-6-5 with a pair of steals for the last two months, emerging as the leader of the pack in Minnesota.<\/p>\n
Jerami Grant, Trail Blazers<\/strong><\/p>\nThe good vibes of the early part of the season in the Pacific Northwest have largely dissipated, but Grant has continued to be precisely the two-way combo forward Portland\u2019s brass hoped he\u2019d be when it swung the deal to bring him in over the summer: 21.7 points per game, 54% inside the arc and 43% beyond it, while logging iron-man minutes defending up and down the positional spectrum and transitioning seamlessly between a complementary option when Damian Lillard is available and a primary when he\u2019s not. I agree with Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report: a lucrative long-term extension seems like a no-brainer, and beneficial for both sides.<\/p>\n
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, Magic<\/strong><\/p>\nWagner\u2019s built on the strong all-around play of his rookie campaign in Year 2; he\u2019s one of just 18 players in the league this season averaging at least 20 points, three rebounds and three assists per game on .590 true shooting, and the other 18 all have either made All-Star appearances in the past or already been covered in this column. Banchero\u2019s counting stat line (21.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists) calls to mind the first-year numbers of fellow No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin \u2014 the last rookie to make the All-Star Game. Together, they\u2019ve shown signs of being the kind of complementary frontcourt scorers and playmakers who could help lift the Magic out of more than a decade in the offensive doldrums. (Orlando famously \u2014 or infamously, I guess \u2014 hasn\u2019t finished in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency since Dwight Howard left town.)<\/p>\n
Orlando\u2019s recent 3-7 skid post-Christmas dimmed their shine a bit, though, and all the incumbent Eastern frontcourt talent \u2014 Embiid, Giannis, Tatum, Durant, Pascal Siakam, Jimmy Butler, Randle, Bam Adebayo, Kristaps Porzingis, the list goes on \u2014 makes it exceedingly unlikely that either Banchero or Wagner break through this season. That might not be the case for long, though; they\u2019ve cemented themselves as bona fide foundational pieces for the Magic, giving Central Floridians legitimate reason, at long last, to believe that brighter days might lie ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n