Everybody is looking at the NBA standings in both conferences.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re a few years deep into the Play-In Tournament, and it\u2019s opened up everything for a lot of teams hoping to extend their season past the 82-game campaign. Before, it was just about grabbing the top eight seeds in each conference, and if we were lucky, we\u2019d have two or three teams in one of the conferences giving us a good playoff race at the end.<\/p>\n
The Play-In Tournament changes that. If teams are not in the mix by mid-March, they must be bad. It\u2019s changed the trade deadline by opening up more buyers because teams have a chance of playing deeper into April or beyond.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take this halfway point of the season as an opportunity to examine each conference. Which teams are destined to make the top-six safe zone? Which teams should<\/em> end up making the top six even if it\u2019s not a lock? Which teams are in the Play-In Tournament mix? Which teams are hanging around the periphery because they have alligator blood? And which teams are refreshing their lottery odds with our friends at Tankathon.com?<\/p>\n You can check out our East breakdown here. Below, we dive into the Western Conference.<\/p>\n (Stats\/records are through Thursday\u2019s games. Teams in each category are listed in no particular order.)<\/em><\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> The Nuggets have been dominant, especially as of late, winning 14 of their last 17 games. While the defense has improved during that stretch, most of Denver\u2019s success is due to the absurd offensive production and efficiency. They have the best offense in the league. They finished sixth in the West last season, barely avoiding the Play-In Tournament, and are already off to a much better start this season. They\u2019ll be chasing the top seed all season.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> Nikola Joki\u0107 could decide tomorrow that he just wants to race horses and quit basketball forever. That is the only conceivable thing I can think of that would knock this version of the Nuggets out of the top six by the season\u2019s end.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> I\u2019d like to see them look for a little more depth. They have a seven-, maybe eight-man rotation for the playoffs. They need to make sure that\u2019s a definite eight-man, maybe nine-man rotation. Is it worth making a deal to shake things up? Probably not. Maybe the buyout market is a better option for them.<\/p>\n GO DEEPER<\/p>\n Do the Nuggets have enough for a finals run? Joker says ‘probably’<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> Even if you want to doubt their postseason chances, the Grizzlies have become winning machines in the regular season. They had the second-best record in the NBA last season and are tied for the second-best record in the NBA this season. Ja Morant and his teammates have executed the game plans of Taylor Jenkins remarkably well for their still lack of experience as a group. A young team this defensive-minded is a scary thing.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> This is a team that can struggle offensively, and we\u2019ve seen key players (Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane) all miss significant games over the past two seasons. The Grizzlies do a great job of plugging and playing, but they don\u2019t have the depth they had a year ago. But I don\u2019t think they\u2019re in danger of revisiting the Play-In Tournament any time soon.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> They need a more stable wing option than Dillon Brooks next to Bane and Morant, but they just need another wing who can create a little off the bench. Nothing dire enough to shake up the core, though.<\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> There is so much talent on this Pelicans team, and they\u2019ve had all this success while Brandon Ingram has missed a lot of time. The Pelicans are one of the top offensive and defensive teams in the NBA and are the only team that is top six on both ends of the floor. Willie Green is a very good leader so early in his head coaching career, and he has a ton of depth.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> Sustaining success with a young team is not always easy to do, and there are some good teams (potentially) behind them right now. A healthy Dallas, Golden State and Phoenix squad could move up the ranks with a big stretch. The Clippers are always a threat. And maybe Sacramento remains scrappy enough to get there. New Orleans should be fine, but Ingram and Zion Williamson do miss a lot of time.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> Absolutely not. Let this squad cook and see how they settle after a great finish to last season and a great start to this season.<\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> Luka Don\u010di\u0107. The Mavericks are a quality team. They had a good run to the conference finals last season, and they\u2019re one of the best offensive squads in the NBA. But the reason the Mavericks are dangerous is that coach Jason Kidd has helped improve some of the defensive tenets (although this season\u2019s personnel isn\u2019t as solid with it), while also letting Don\u010di\u0107 do his thing. He\u2019s turning in unfathomable stat lines nightly \u2014 like so many stars in the league can \u2014 and it\u2019s lifting them away from the Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> The defense has regressed, and I\u2019m not sure Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie can quite replicate what Jalen Brunson meant to them offensively last season. A bad defensive stretch puts too much pressure on the offense sometimes, and Don\u010di\u0107 can\u2019t always be a superhero, right?<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> They need a better running mate next to Don\u010di\u0107, but I can\u2019t see that guy existing on the trade market right now. They should try to pick up another initiator and hope the offense is overwhelming to everybody.<\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> The Warriors are still the reigning champs, Steph Curry is back, Klay Thompson is back offensively, and their preferred starting lineup is still dominating when they\u2019re on the floor. That championship resolve goes a long way, and despite all of their issues to start the first half of this season, the Warriors are a good week away from fourth in the West.<\/p>\n GO DEEPER<\/p>\n If Playoff Andrew Wiggins is back, Warriors’ loss to Suns was a big win<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> It\u2019s easy to say \u201cinjuries\u201d for a lot of these teams, but what we\u2019ve seen from Curry, Thompson and Andrew Wiggins so far this season are causes for concern. This team is better than its record, but the Warriors also have earned this record by being awful on the road. If they keep trying to make these young guys play consistent championship basketball and it costs them more road games, maybe they get stuck in the Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> Buyout market? Yes. Trade? No. Trust the process, but Warriors style.<\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> As bad as the first half of the season has been, we saw what the Suns were capable of doing last season when they ran away with the top seed in the Western Conference and the best overall record in the NBA. And despite Chris Paul being bad this season, the Suns were still six games over .500 before Devin Booker started missing games. The Suns are an elite team on both ends of the floor when they\u2019re healthy. They just need to get Booker back into the mix and they should avoid the Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> On the flip side, a groin injury (Booker) is very tough to get over in the regular season, and it cannot be stated enough how horrendous Paul looked to start this season. It\u2019s no reason to panic now, but we keep getting closer and closer to the panic zone of the season if he doesn\u2019t correct his poor play.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> They need to resolve the Jae Crowder thing, so yes. Get another rotation guy for him and move on with the season.<\/p>\n Why are we confident in them?<\/strong> The Clippers are good on the court, typically no matter whom they put on the floor. When you look at this team on paper, it looks capable of winning it all. Kawhi Leonard needs to play more, but he\u2019s still got it when he does. Paul George is a very good second guy for them, and this team is extremely deep. There are a lot of perimeter options to throw at opponents, and I just don\u2019t buy that they\u2019re this bad offensively.<\/p>\n What could knock them out here?<\/strong> Themselves. The Clippers don\u2019t have a lot of reps together as a group. And that\u2019s not just this season. That\u2019s over seasons. Plural. Call it injuries. Call it load management. Whatever it is, the Clippers don\u2019t have nearly enough time on the court together to build. And with the West getting more competitive and crowded as the season goes, that lack of reps will matter more and more.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> They don\u2019t have any size behind Ivica Zubac, so they should try to rectify that for postseason purposes. Against Joki\u0107 in a playoff series, they don\u2019t have extra giants to throw at him defensively.<\/p>\n What gets them into the top six?<\/strong> They\u2019re currently in the top six, but even the Kings have to recognize there are some very good, much more established teams right on their heels. But the Kings are operating with a top-10 offense, just not in the NBA this season (although, yes, that\u2019s true too). We\u2019re talking top 10 all time, and that\u2019s when you include that bastardized 2020-21 season that had crazy skewed numbers. Mike Brown has this team believing in fourth quarters and closing out games. There are way more talented teams, but their confidence is melding with their offensive ability right now.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> Surprisingly, no. This Kings squad has struggled a lot defensively, and normally, I\u2019d suggest going and getting one of those guys. But the chemistry is brilliant right now, the offense is historic, and I think you let this squad ride out the season.<\/p>\n Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> With their start to the season, 1.5. We\u2019ve seen the Kings fade before, but they\u2019re currently top five and know their identity better than half the teams behind them.<\/p>\n What gets them into the top six?<\/strong> Their three-headed monster. The Trail Blazers are getting about 70 points per game from Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. This has been an excellent trio all season long, and it\u2019s the thing keeping their offensive rating afloat. They\u2019re about league average on offense and league average on defense. If they can maintain this defense, the offense should end up improving the rest of the way. Having these three continue to work together is what could help them go on a run.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> The Blazers probably should make a move. As much as I love Jusuf Nurki\u0107, I\u2019m not sure riding it out with him is the best thing for maximizing this team. Maybe that\u2019s too major of a change to make midseason, but I think a more mobile big man (Nurk is fine) would help them excel on both ends.<\/p>\n Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> Six. There\u2019s a good mix here, but they have some work to do if Utah won\u2019t gut its roster.<\/p>\n What gets them into the top six?<\/strong> The Timberwolves \u2014 once they get healthy and have Karl-Anthony Towns back into the mix \u2014 have to stop pretending they have bravado and everything figured out. They need to be honest with themselves and learn how to do the little things to make up for their deficiencies. They have talent. They have skill sets. They have confidence. That\u2019s all great. How do you make their misshapen parts fit together in a way that creates sustainable success on the floor? This franchise, for once, has to learn how to get out of its own way.<\/p>\n GO DEEPER<\/p>\n The Timberwolves need more of the desperation Anthony Edwards showed in Detroit<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> The only move they can make is hoping to collect 10 cents on the dollar for D\u2019Angelo Russell to get a better-fitting, more competitive point guard into the mix to finish the season. This team is handcuffed to itself and can\u2019t make moves unless it wants to give up someone valuable like Jaden McDaniels (they don\u2019t).<\/p>\n Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> Ten. This team is underperforming, and we\u2019re not convinced they like playing together.<\/p>\n What gets them into the Play-In Tournament?<\/strong> The Lakers can do it, but they need LeBron James to keep this going, Anthony Davis to get healthy, Russell Westbrook to keep his sixth-man role, some improved shooting, a big trade to bring in better support and Davis to not get hurt again this season. It couldn\u2019t be more straightforward.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> Yes. Make the trade with Indiana. Give up the two picks. Teams mortgage their futures all the time and then find creative ways to get picks again. Do what you have to in order to make this team as interesting and as competitive as possible for the rest of this season. Quit pretending you have a plan beyond the LeBron years.<\/p>\n Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> 10. The passive-aggressive tweets from LeBron if they miss will be too much to handle.<\/p>\n What gets them into the Play-In Tournament?<\/strong> Don\u2019t make the moves we all believe they\u2019re going to make. The Jazz have a lot of capable offensive players on the roster that a lot of teams would love to get their hands on. If the Jazz don\u2019t send them off for future assets\/draft capital, then they can compete for the top 10 in the West all season long. I think they guarantee their spot in the Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> Absolutely. Send away those veterans. Don\u2019t let pride get in the way of putting yourself in a better position to win the draft lottery. They\u2019re probably beyond guaranteeing a bottom-four record and top, shared lottery odds, but the Jazz shouldn\u2019t just hope for an outright miracle when it comes to their lottery ball options. Send away Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and others.<\/p>\n Panic Meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> Four, but they\u2019d only be panicked if missing it doesn\u2019t result in winning the lottery.<\/p>\n What gets them into the Play-In Tournament?<\/strong> Not bailing on the second half of the season. The Thunder have been retooling\/rebuilding\/tanking for a couple of seasons now, and it usually results in some mysterious absences after the trade deadline. The Thunder avoiding doing that again would empower the young roster to go after that final Play-In spot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is good enough to put them in the mix, but we don\u2019t know if the young guys are capable of steering them completely away from lottery bliss.<\/p>\n Should they make a move?<\/strong> No offense to Mike Muscala, but they don\u2019t have that veteran to deal before the deadline to go for another asset. I think the Thunder stay as-is.<\/p>\n Panic Meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In:<\/strong> Eight, but I\u2019m not sure they\u2019re concerned about making it.<\/p>\n What should they focus on this season?<\/strong> The Spurs probably don\u2019t need to worry about falling out of the bottom four in the NBA, but they are within winning distance of Orlando currently. Gregg Popovich needs to just keep the focus on the young guys on the roster, develop and make sure those lottery balls give them a 14.0 percent chance at their next franchise-changing player.<\/p>\n Can they move a veteran for a pick?<\/strong> Jakob Poeltl is a very valuable veteran big man who can bring it on both ends and is a free agent this summer. He\u2019s going to be someone you want Bird rights to if you\u2019re looking to acquire him. The Spurs should be able to get a first-round pick for him after getting firsts for both Thaddeus Young and Derrick White at the last trade deadline.<\/p>\n Confidence meter (1-10) in landing top lottery odds (14 percent):<\/strong> 9.5<\/p>\n GO DEEPER<\/p>\n NBA midseason report card: 30 grades for 30 teams<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n What should they focus on this season?<\/strong> The Rockets have a young roster with a lot of raw talent. Keep putting them in situations to succeed, even if the success doesn\u2019t come. Getting blown out every night is tough for development. They\u2019ve got to get guys like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. to make decisions in closer games with drama and tension. Losses will still come, but the lessons will too.<\/p>\n Can they move a veteran for a pick?<\/strong> Eric Gordon has been the guy to move for a couple of years now, ever since James Harden got out of town. I\u2019m not sure you can get a first-round pick for Gordon at this point, but he\u2019s an excellent player you can throw into any team\u2019s rotation.<\/p>\n Confidence meter (1-10) in landing top lottery odds (14 percent):<\/strong> 10<\/p>\n (Top photo of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant: Justin Ford \/ Getty Images)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\nDestined for the Top Six<\/h2>\n
Denver Nuggets | 28-13 | first in the West | fourth (tied) in net rating (+4.0)<\/h2>\n
![\"go-deeper\"\/](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=128,height=128,fit=cover,format=auto\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/08132349\/GettyImages-1246053151-1024x683.jpg\")
<\/div>\nMemphis Grizzlies | 28-13 | second in the West | second in net rating (+5.0)<\/h2>\n
New Orleans Pelicans | 25-17 | third in the West | fourth (tied) in net rating (+4.0)<\/h2>\n
Teams That Should Make the Top Six<\/h2>\n
Dallas Mavericks | 24-19 | fourth in the West | 12th (tied) in net rating (+0.9)<\/h2>\n
Golden State Warriors | 20-21 | eighth in the West | 23rd in net rating (-1.1)<\/h2>\n
![\"go-deeper\"\/](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=128,height=128,fit=cover,format=auto\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/11163144\/USATSI_19764988-1024x683.jpg\")
<\/div>\nPhoenix Suns | 21-22 | seventh in the West | 10th in net rating (+1.6)<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/13082954\/USATSI_19725513-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Suns coach Monty Williams (David Richard \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nLA Clippers | 22-21 | sixth in the West | 21st (tied) in net rating (-0.9)<\/h2>\n
Teams Firmly in the Play-In Tournament Mix<\/h2>\n
Sacramento Kings | 22-18 | fifth in the West | 9th in net rating (+1.9)<\/h2>\n
Portland Trail Blazers | 19-22 | 11th in the West | 16th in net rating (-0.1)<\/h2>\n
Minnesota Timberwolves | 20-22 | 10th in the West | 19th in net rating (-0.4)<\/h2>\n
![\"go-deeper\"\/](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=128,height=128,fit=cover,format=auto\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/12073818\/GettyImages-1246169554-1024x683.jpg\")
<\/div>\nHanging Around Like They Have Alligator Blood<\/h2>\n
Los Angeles Lakers | 19-23 | 13th in the West | 21st (tied) in net rating (-0.9)<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/13083203\/USATSI_19779936-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n LeBron James and Luka Don\u010di\u0107 (Gary A. Vasquez \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nUtah Jazz | 21-23 | ninth in the West | 12th (tied) in net rating (+0.9)<\/h2>\n
Oklahoma City Thunder | 19-23 | 12th in the West | 15th in net rating (+0.2)<\/h2>\n
Teams Refreshing Tankathon.com<\/h2>\n
San Antonio Spurs | 13-29 | 14th in the West | 30th in net rating (-8.5)<\/h2>\n
![\"go-deeper\"\/](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=128,height=128,fit=cover,format=auto\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/13112356\/GettyImages-1245930519-1024x683.jpg\")
<\/div>\nHouston Rockets | 10-31 | 15th in the West | 29th in net rating (-7.3)<\/h2>\n