{"id":3780,"date":"2023-01-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/future-perfects-forecasts-for-2023-covid-putin-inflation-and-more\/"},"modified":"2023-01-02T12:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-02T12:00:00","slug":"future-perfects-forecasts-for-2023-covid-putin-inflation-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/future-perfects-forecasts-for-2023-covid-putin-inflation-and-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Future Perfect\u2019s forecasts for 2023 \u2014 Covid, Putin, inflation, and more"},"content":{"rendered":"

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This will be the fourth year in a row that the staff of Future Perfect has given itself the task of trying to predict, well, the future. It\u2019s in the name of the section, but forecasting is something that can benefit you as a thinker whether or not you can accurately see what\u2019s to come. As my colleague Dylan Matthews wrote last year, \u201cthe most critical skills for forecasting <\/strong>are thinking numerically, being open to changing your mind, updating your beliefs incrementally and frequently instead of in rare big moments, and \u2014 most encouragingly \u2014 practicing.\u201d Practice makes Future Perfect, in other words.<\/p>\n

So here are our best guesses \u2014 with probabilities attached \u2014 to what we think will happen as some of the most important stories of 2023 unfold. Will we dip into a recession? Will inflation continue unchecked? Will China launch an invasion of Taiwan, and will Vladimir Putin still be president of Russia at year\u2019s end? Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl? (This one might be of interest only to me.)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to remember that each prediction is made probabilistically, meaning we assign each event a probability of between 10 and 95 percent. A very high percentage \u2014 say, 80 percent \u2014 doesn\u2019t mean that an event will definitely happen (something we all should have learned after the 2016 election). It simply means that if we make five predictions at 80 percent, we expect four of them to come true. And we\u2019ll be keeping track, reporting back next year on how we did. (You can read our review of our 2022 predictions here.) \u2014Bryan Walsh<\/em><\/p>\n

The United States<\/h3>\n

Joe Biden will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination heading into 2024 (70 percent)<\/h4>\n

Presidential reelection years are approximately half as interesting to political reporters as open-seat races because only one party has competitive primaries. Naturally, this means that every such year features rampant speculation about improbable primary challenges or running mate swaps by the incumbent: Maybe Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan would challenge Trump in 2020! Or George W. Bush would swap Dick Cheney for Rudy Giuliani in 2004! (Neither happened.)<\/p>\n