The NHL schedule is a grind, and as we hit the early days of January 2026, the “holiday hangover” is real. This Sunday afternoon, the Dallas Stars<\/b> host the Montreal Canadiens<\/b> in a matchup that, on the surface, looks like a mismatch. But for the savvy bettor, the real value isn’t found in the heavy moneyline juice\u2014it’s found in the total.<\/p>\n
Despite some high-scoring flashes from both teams earlier this season, the current situational factors point heavily toward a low-scoring affair. Here is why the Under 6.5<\/b> is the smartest play on the board.<\/p>\n
\nThe Home Side: Dallas Stars Searching for Structure<\/b><\/h3>\n
The Dallas Stars (25-9-7) have hit their first real speed bump of the season. After a blistering start that had them neck-and-neck with the league’s elite, they entered Sunday on a season-high-tying four-game losing streak<\/b>.<\/p>\n
Coach Glen Gulutzan hasn’t minced words, stating the team has lost its “edge.” When a high-caliber team like Dallas loses its way, the first thing they usually do to right the ship is tighten up defensively.<\/p>\n
The Defensive Dip:<\/b> Dallas has allowed 4 goals in each of their last four losses. For a team that ranks 5th in the NHL in Goals Against (2.65 per game), this is a massive statistical anomaly.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n The Goalie Factor:<\/b> Jake Oettinger<\/b> remains one of the league’s best ($16-7-3$<\/span>, $2.57$<\/span> GAA). He is due for a “get-right” game. Returning home after a frustrating road trip usually results in a focused, high-save-percentage performance from an elite netminder.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Offensive Stalemate:<\/b> While Jason Robertson<\/b> (24G, 48PTS) and Mikko Rantanen<\/b> (54PTS) are superstars, the Stars’ rhythm has been disrupted. They aren’t currently playing the high-event hockey that leads to overs; they are playing a “searching” game.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n The Montreal Canadiens (22-13-6) are a much-improved squad, but they are currently battling two major enemies: injuries<\/b> and fatigue<\/b>.<\/p>\n The Injury Plague:<\/b> Montreal\u2019s medical room is crowded. With key forwards like Patrik Laine<\/b>, Kirby Dach<\/b>, and Alex Newhook<\/b> out, and Mike Matheson<\/b> and Josh Anderson<\/b> listed as day-to-day, the “second wave” of Montreal\u2019s offense has effectively vanished.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Back-to-Back Blues:<\/b> Montreal played Saturday against St. Louis and was shut out 2-0. They are now playing their second game in less than 24 hours. Historically, teams on the back end of a back-to-back see a significant drop in shooting percentage and power-play efficiency due to heavy legs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Power Play Drought:<\/b> The Habs’ man-advantage has cooled significantly, operating at just 18.2%<\/b> over the last three weeks. Against a Dallas penalty kill that ranks in the top 10 (83.2%), goals will be hard to come by.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n When betting totals, the “math” often lies in the situation.<\/p>\n The Stars are desperate for a win. Desperate teams play “safe” hockey. They don’t take risks at the blue line that lead to odd-man rushes. They play a 200-foot game, dump the puck, and focus on winning 2-1 or 3-1.<\/p>\n On the other side, Montreal likely doesn’t have the gas in the tank to push the pace. If they fall behind early, expect them to try and keep the game close rather than opening up and risking a blowout like the 7-0 loss they suffered to Dallas earlier this year.<\/p>\n The market has set the total at 6.5<\/b>, likely influenced by Dallas’s high season average of 3.41 goals per game. However, that average was built during a healthy November and December. Right now, this is a tired Montreal team facing a Dallas team that is hyper-focused on fixing its defensive leaks.<\/p>\n Don’t be fooled by the big names on the jerseys. This game has “matinee struggle” written all over it.<\/p>\n The Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-115)<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The NHL schedule is a grind, and as we hit the early days of January 2026, the “holiday hangover” is real. This Sunday afternoon, the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":31166,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[125],"tags":[6454,3173,1572,2273,758,2150,6456,3586,6437,6436,741,241,6455,3120,2118,307,324,4469,1871,2704],"class_list":["post-31165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-american-airlines-center","tag-back-to-back","tag-betting","tag-betting-trends","tag-dallas-stars","tag-defensive-strategy","tag-goalie-analysis","tag-hockey-odds","tag-jake-oettinger","tag-jason-robertson","tag-montreal-canadiens","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-handicapping","tag-nick-suzuki","tag-power-play","tag-predictions","tag-puck-line","tag-situational-betting","tag-sports-gambling","tag-under-6-5","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Stars-v-Canadiens-195ee46347.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31165"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31168,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31165\/revisions\/31168"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nThe Visitors: Montreal\u2019s Muted Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
\nSituational Trends: Why the Under 6.5 Wins<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n\n
\n Trend<\/strong><\/td>\n Impact on Total<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n \n Dallas Home O\/U<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 8-12 (Trending Under)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Montreal B2B Games<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n Lower offensive output due to travel\/fatigue<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Head-to-Head<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n Last 10 meetings: 6 Under, 4 Over<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Recent Performance<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n Montreal coming off a shutout loss<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\nThe Verdict<\/b><\/h3>\n