It is Thanksgiving night, and the NFL has saved a fierce rivalry for the main course. The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that features two teams moving in very different directions. If you are looking to finish your holiday with a win, this matchup offers a clear opportunity.<\/p>\n
The Baltimore Ravens are red-hot, playing their best football of the season. On the other side, the Cincinnati Bengals are struggling to find their footing and are dealing with major injury issues.<\/p>\n
The Baltimore Ravens (6-5) are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won five games in a row, thanks to a combination of quarterback Lamar Jackson’s excellence and a dominant ground attack.<\/p>\n
The Ravens average 25 points per game (PPG)<\/b>, which ranks them 11th in the NFL. They also rank high in rushing yards, thanks to running back Derrick Henry. Their formula for scoring is simple and effective:<\/p>\n Control the Clock:<\/b> They run the ball, wear out the opposing defense, and keep their own defense fresh.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Strike Deep:<\/b> When defenses focus on the run, Lamar Jackson uses play-action passes to hit receivers like Zay Flowers or All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews for big gains.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n The Mismatch:<\/b> Tonight, the Ravens face the absolute worst defense in the league, a perfect “get-well” spot for their offense to put up its biggest score of the season.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n While the Ravens’ defense has been excellent recently, holding opponents under 20 points in their last five wins, they are not immune to giving up big plays. Past matchups against the Bengals have shown that when this rivalry heats up, the defense takes a back seat to the fireworks. The Ravens know they must score a lot to win this game.<\/p>\n The Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) are having a disastrous year, not because of their offense, but almost entirely because their defense cannot stop anyone.<\/p>\n Before his injury, quarterback Joe Burrow consistently threw for big yardage and many touchdowns. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is still one of the best playmakers in the game. Even with Burrow’s nine-game absence, the offense has shown flashes of being able to put points on the board.<\/p>\n Joe Burrow\u2019s Return:<\/b> Burrow\u2019s return from his toe injury is the biggest X-factor. While he might be “rusty,” he is an aggressive passer who is motivated to prove himself on a national stage. His history against the Ravens is incredible, having averaged around 300 passing yards and two touchdowns per game in their rivalry meetings. This forces Baltimore to score to keep up.<\/p>\n This is the core reason the total points will be high. The 2025 Bengals defense is not just bad; it is historically bad<\/b>.<\/p>\n Last in Scoring:<\/b> They rank 32nd (last) in the NFL<\/b>, allowing an average of 32.7 points per game<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Last in Yards:<\/b> They rank 32nd in yards allowed, giving up an average of 415.8 yards per game<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Tight End Problem:<\/b> They have allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, which is double the number of the next-worst team. This is a massive gift to the Ravens’ All-Pro tight end, Mark Andrews.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n The Cincinnati defense has allowed over 30 points five times this year and over 500 yards three times. They struggle to defend both the run and the pass, creating a nightmare scenario against a balanced team like the Ravens.<\/p>\n The number 51.5<\/b> seems high, but a close look at the data shows it is actually too low for this matchup. This pick is supported by three key elements: the Bengals’ defense, the history of the rivalry, and the necessary response from the Ravens’ offense.<\/p>\n The Bengals Guarantee Points:<\/b> Since the Bengals are allowing an average of 32.7 points per game, the Ravens are almost guaranteed to score in the low-to-mid 30s. If the Ravens score 31 points<\/b>, the Bengals only need to score 21 points<\/b> to hit the 52-point mark<\/b> and push the game OVER. Considering Cincinnati has scored 20 or more points in many of its recent losses, this is highly achievable.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rivalry History is Explosive:<\/b> The last two meetings between these two teams were both high-scoring shootouts that easily cleared the 51.5 mark. Last season’s matchups included a 35-34 final score (69 total points) and a 41-38 score (79 total points). When these two teams meet, the offensive coaches open up the playbook.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n “Catch-Up” Scoring is Coming:<\/b> When the Ravens build a big lead (as expected), the Bengals will abandon the run and rely entirely on Joe Burrow throwing the ball. This is often when a team scores quickly in “garbage time” to make the final score look respectable, driving the total score even higher.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n The average score projected by reliable prediction models sits above the required 51.5 points.<\/p>\n The collective data from these models points to an average final score of 53 points<\/b>, making the OVER 51.5<\/b> the clear favorite.<\/p>\n Tonight\u2019s game promises to be an action-packed, high-scoring affair that will erase the memories of any boring earlier Thanksgiving games. The conditions are perfect: a motivated Ravens offense facing a historically poor Bengals defense, countered by a proud, returning Bengals quarterback who knows he needs to throw the ball often to keep up.<\/p>\n Focus on the speed and scoring ability of both teams. Look forward to a long night of offense, with big plays from Derrick Henry and Ja’Marr Chase leading the way. The only safe outlook for this Thanksgiving night rivalry game is that the points will come fast and they will come often. Enjoy the fireworks.<\/p>\n My pick: over 51.5 total scores LOSE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It is Thanksgiving night, and the NFL has saved a fierce rivalry for the main course. The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals in a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":30523,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[7919],"tags":[517,885,417,1875,6113,1298,1889,11,1354],"class_list":["post-30521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-analysis","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-sports-predictions","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cincinnati-bengals-vs-baltimore-ravens","tag-football-picks","tag-national-football-league","tag-nfl","tag-various-predictive-models","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-27-233751.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30521"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30558,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30521\/revisions\/30558"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
Defense: Good, But Not Perfect<\/h4>\n
Cincinnati Bengals: Defense is the Problem<\/h3>\n
Recent Performance: Offensive Potential<\/h4>\n
Defense: Historically Bad<\/h4>\n
\n
\nWhy the Pick is OVER 51.5 Points<\/h3>\n
\n
Prediction Model Consensus<\/h3>\n
\n\n
\n Model\/Source<\/strong><\/td>\n Ravens Predicted Score<\/strong><\/td>\n Bengals Predicted Score<\/strong><\/td>\n Total Points<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n \n Fox Sports (Data Skrive)<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 34<\/span><\/td>\n 18<\/span><\/td>\n 52<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Sports Illustrated Pundit<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 31<\/span><\/td>\n 21<\/span><\/td>\n 52<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n SportsLine Model<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 30<\/span><\/td>\n 23<\/span><\/td>\n 53<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n NFL Network Analyst (Implied)<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 31<\/span><\/td>\n 24<\/span><\/td>\n 55<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n CBS Sports Model<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 29<\/span><\/td>\n 24<\/span><\/td>\n 53<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Average Model Total<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 31<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 22<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 53<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\nConclusion<\/h3>\n