I collected published score predictions from five reputable model \/ projection sources and handicappers that publish model-driven predictions:<\/p>\n
Lines.com (Edge AI)<\/strong> \u2014 Golden Knights 4 \u2013 Blues 2<\/strong> (Edge AI projection \/ simulation).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n PicksAndParlays (modelled preview)<\/strong> \u2014 Golden Knights 4 \u2013 Blues 2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Fox Sports \/ BleacherNation picks (editorial + model blend)<\/strong> \u2014 Golden Knights 4 \u2013 Blues 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n SportsGambler (model\/handicap piece)<\/strong> \u2014 Golden Knights 5 \u2013 Blues 1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n CappersPicks (free pick \/ model-assisted)<\/strong> \u2014 Golden Knights 3 \u2013 Blues 2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Average those five predicted scores:<\/p>\n Vegas goals = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 3) \/ 5 = 4.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n St. Louis goals = (2 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 2) \/ 5 = 2.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Averaged model prediction:<\/strong> Vegas 4 \u2014 St. Louis 2<\/strong> (total = 6.0).<\/p>\n I combined simple Pythagorean expectation, current team-level rates, goalie\/availability news, rest\/back-to-back context, and recent form.<\/p>\n Inputs I used (public team rates & context):<\/strong><\/p>\n Vegas GF\/G = 3.19<\/strong>, GA\/G = 3.00<\/strong>. St. Louis GF\/G = 2.89<\/strong>, GA\/G = 3.83<\/strong> (per ESPN team stat lines).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Recent game context: Vegas lost 4\u20133 in OT to the Islanders on Nov 13 and has looked inconsistent; Blues have goalie rotation and goaltending concerns.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Injury \/ goalie notes: Adin Hill (VGK) has been sidelined \/ expected out (reports say \u201cout for a few months\u201d \/ won\u2019t travel on road trip), meaning Vegas will rely on other netminders (Akira Schmid \/ backups). Joel Hofer is likely to get the second half of a back-to-back for St. Louis and his recent numbers are shaky. Both items materially affect expected goals allowed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Pythagorean expectation (GF and GA with exponent = 2):<\/strong><\/p>\n Vegas exp. win% \u2248 GF\u00b2 \/ (GF\u00b2 + GA\u00b2) = 3.19\u00b2 \/ (3.19\u00b2 + 3.00\u00b2) \u2248 0.531 (53.1%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n St. Louis exp. win% \u2248 2.89\u00b2 \/ (2.89\u00b2 + 3.83\u00b2) \u2248 0.363 (36.3%)<\/strong>. Adjustments I applied:<\/strong><\/p>\n Goalie\/injury effect:<\/strong> Adin Hill out (Vegas) reduces Vegas goaltending stability but Vegas\u2019 skaters still project more shots & goal-scoring than St. Louis (AccuScore \/ BetQL mention Vegas shot advantage). St. Louis likely starts Joel Hofer on the second night \u2014 his season numbers are worse than league average, which increases expected goals for Vegas. Net effect: slight increase<\/em> to Vegas expected scoring and to Blues expected goals allowed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rest \/ schedule:<\/strong> St. Louis may be playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back in some writeups \u2014 that negatively impacts their defense\/goalie. Several previews mention Blues are on a back-to-back or travel. This favors Vegas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Recent form:<\/strong> Vegas has been inconsistent (a couple close losses recently), but their forward talent (Eichel, scoring depth) still projects above St. Louis\u2019 scoring baseline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n My numerically anchored prediction (blending Pythagorean + adjustments + model average):<\/strong> My confidence (rough):<\/strong> ~58\u201362%<\/strong> that Vegas wins in regulation (my probability estimate, informed by Pythagorean + model consensus + news). The models\u2019 average win probability figures (where published) also lean Vegas (e.g., AccuScore\/BetQL showed ~58.6% in their simulations).<\/p>\n Adin Hill (VGK)<\/strong> \u2014 ongoing lower-body injury; reporting indicates he\u2019s out and Vegas will roll other netminders for a period. This is significant for goalie quality and could slightly increase goals against for Vegas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n St. Louis goalie rotation<\/strong> \u2014 Jordan Binnington started recently and Joel Hofer is expected to take a game (possibly the night after Binnington), and Hofer\u2019s recent form\/SV% has been poor \u2014 that favors Vegas scoring.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rest\/back-to-back<\/strong> \u2014 several previews call out Blues\u2019 schedule or being on a back-to-back, which lowers defensive effectiveness.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n (Those are the big, live-impact items I used to nudge the pure-stat projection.)<\/p>\n 1) What the (top) models predicted \u2014 final scores I collected published score predictions from five reputable model \/ projection sources and handicappers that publish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":30172,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[125],"tags":[241,466,465,731,742,750,464,730,131],"class_list":["post-30171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-analytical-insights","tag-nhl-game-insights","tag-nhl-games-today-predictions","tag-nhl-hockey","tag-nhl-pediction","tag-nhl-prediction-tips","tag-nhl-predictions-today","tag-nhl-sports-picks-using-ai","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/NHL-Vegas-Golden-Knights-vs.-St.-Louis-Blues.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30171"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30236,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30171\/revisions\/30236"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n2) My independent prediction (method + numbers)<\/h1>\n
\n
\n
(This is a rough team-quality anchor showing Vegas with a clear edge; I rounded to three significant digits.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
I land on Vegas 4 \u2014 St. Louis 2<\/strong> (total = 6<\/strong>). That matches the averaged models (4\u20132) and reflects: Vegas\u2019 modest GF advantage, St. Louis defensive\/goalie weakness (esp. on back-to-back), and the fact that Vegas\u2019 goalie question is partly offset by the Blues\u2019 poor recent netminding.<\/p>\n
\n3) News & trends I checked (most relevant items)<\/h1>\n
\n
\n4) Final pick<\/h1>\n
My PICK: St. Louis Blues Moneyline +128 (LOSE)<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"