I targeted reputable model\/output sources (ESPN, SportsLine, FanDuel\/numberFire, SportsGambler, OddsShark \/ site computer picks and a few AI-outlet previews). Not all of these publish final score<\/strong> estimates publicly \u2014 some keep projected scores behind subscriber paywalls (SportsLine, Leans.ai). I list what was publicly available:<\/p>\n ESPN Analytics \/ Matchup Predictor<\/strong> \u2014 ESPN\u2019s matchup model gives win probabilities (favored side) but does not<\/strong> publish a public final-score projection on the free preview page. ESPN shows Bulls\/76ers matchup info and injury list.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n SportsLine<\/strong> \u2014 SportsLine runs a proven model and publishes a projected score to subscribers; their page confirms a model projection exists but the projected score is subscriber-only<\/strong> on this matchup. SportsLine also lists injuries (e.g., team injury notes).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Fox Sports (preview)<\/strong> \u2014 publishes a score prediction<\/em>: Bulls 124 \u2014 76ers 117<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n SportsGambler (site)<\/strong> \u2014 gives a correct-score prediction<\/em>: Bulls 117 \u2014 76ers 115<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n OddsShark \/ Computer pick<\/strong> \u2014 shows a computer prediction skewed toward Philadelphia with numeric values: 76ers 121.4 \u2014 Bulls 112.6<\/strong> (their computer pick).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n FanDuel (numberFire)<\/strong> \u2014 FanDuel\u2019s preview calls out numberFire\u2019s probability (Bulls win (69%)) but did not publish a public numeric final-score on the preview I found.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Important:<\/strong> SportsLine and some AI outlets (Leans.ai \/ Remi, SportsLine PRO) do have model projections but often hide the full projected-score details behind subscriptions \u2014 I noted that where applicable.<\/p>\n Only three reputable outlets I found published explicit numeric final-score predictions<\/strong> that were publicly viewable:<\/p>\n Fox Sports: Bulls 124<\/strong> \u2014 76ers 117<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n SportsGambler: Bulls 117<\/strong> \u2014 76ers 115<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n OddsShark (computer pick): 76ers 121.4<\/strong> \u2014 Bulls 112.6<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n I averaged those three published scores (home team = Chicago Bulls<\/strong>, road = Philadelphia 76ers<\/strong>):<\/p>\n Average (models\u2019 final-score mean)<\/strong><\/p>\n Philadelphia 76ers average score = (117 + 115 + 121.4) \/ 3 = 117.8<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Chicago Bulls average score = (124 + 117 + 112.6) \/ 3 = 117.87<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Averaged implied final score \u2248 Bulls 118 \u2014 76ers 118<\/strong> (total \u2248 235.7<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Note:<\/strong> I only averaged public numeric predictions. ESPN, SportsLine, numberFire\/BetQL and some other high-quality models either publish probabilities or hide their projected final-score behind paywalls; I flagged that above. Where a top model only provides a win probability or is behind a paywall I did not<\/strong> invent a score \u2014 I list their signals separately.<\/p>\n I constructed a compact, reproducible on-the-fly model using:<\/p>\n a Pythagorean expected-win style approach (NBA exponent \u2248 14),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n simple expected-score blending (team offense vs opponent defense),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n adjustments for injuries \/ availability<\/strong> (public reports), recent scoring trends, and a qualitative SOS check.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Inputs I used from public team stats (sources cited):<\/p>\n Season offensive outputs (from ESPN preview): 76ers 125.7 PPG<\/strong>, Bulls 121.7 PPG<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Opponent points allowed (derived from public previews \/ team stats cited by outlets): Bulls allow \u2248 116.3 PPG<\/strong>; 76ers allow \u2248 118.2 PPG<\/strong> (these defensive numbers show up in the previews \/ matchup writeups).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Step A \u2014 Pythagorean check (expected win% from scoring profile)<\/strong><\/p>\n Using PF & PA with exponent 14:<\/p>\n Pythagorean-style expected win% (team scoring vs opponent scoring) shows Philadelphia\u2019s scoring profile implies the stronger (higher) expected win%<\/strong> in isolation (their season scoring margin is a touch better). (computed from the PF\/PA inputs above). This is a team-strength signal that slightly favors Philly.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Step B \u2014 Baseline score estimate (half-sum \/ common-sense blend)<\/strong><\/p>\n Quick neutral estimate:<\/p>\n PHI expected \u2248 (PHI PPG + CHI allowed) \/ 2 = (125.7 + 116.3)\/2 \u2248 121.0<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n CHI expected \u2248 (CHI PPG + PHI allowed) \/ 2 = (121.7 + 118.2)\/2 \u2248 120.0<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Baseline implied score \u2248 76ers 121 \u2014 Bulls 120<\/strong> (total \u2248 241<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Step C \u2014 Injury & availability adjustments<\/strong><\/p>\n Public injury\/availability notes ahead of tip:<\/p>\n ESPN \/ SportsLine a.m. reports showed Paul George listed OUT for the 76ers<\/strong> and Dominick Barlow out<\/strong>; Bulls listed Coby White out<\/strong> and Ayo Dosunmu questionable\/GTG<\/strong>. These moves cut into both benches\/guard depth; Paul George OUT<\/strong> is a material negative for Philly\u2019s wing depth if accurate.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n Practical effect of the injuries: losing Paul George reduces Philly\u2019s non-Maxey scoring\/3PT\/defensive wing minutes \u2014 that would tend to lower<\/em> Philly\u2019s expected total by a few points. Bulls missing Coby White reduces backup guard depth, but Chicago still has starters (Giddey, Vucevic) and home-court.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Step D \u2014 Strength-of-schedule & recent trends<\/strong><\/p>\n Both teams have played a high-scoring slate; many previews note this year\u2019s games frequently go OVER<\/strong> and both teams are averaging well above league points. A couple outlets note the Bulls had a relatively tough early schedule and both teams\u2019 games have hit the over often. That supports higher totals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n My adjusted, final independent prediction (after Pythagorean + SOS + injuries + recent forms):<\/strong><\/p>\n Philadelphia 76ers 119 \u2014 Chicago Bulls 120<\/strong> (final: Bulls by 1<\/strong>, total 239<\/strong>).<\/p>\n Rationale: Pythagorean \/ scoring blends initially tilt to Philly by offense, but the Paul George OUT<\/strong> signal plus Chicago home-court \/ matchup advantages swing the edge to the Bulls by a hair. The adjusted total (239) sits almost exactly<\/strong> at the market total (239.5) \u2014 I expect a close, high-scoring game near the market number.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Averaged public models (3 public score predictions)<\/strong> \u2192 Bulls 118 \u2014 76ers 118<\/strong> (total 235.7<\/strong>) \u2014 a virtual tie but slightly lower total than my model<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n My independent model<\/strong> \u2192 Bulls 120 \u2014 76ers 119<\/strong> (total 239<\/strong>) \u2014 Bulls by 1, total \u2248 market<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Interpretation:<\/strong><\/p>\n The publicly-published model scores I could find average to a very even game<\/strong> but with a slightly lower total<\/strong> than the market. That average is driven by one model (OddsShark) predicting a PHI blowout-ish (121.4) while two others pick the Bulls by a handful. The median<\/em> of the three numeric predictions is Bulls 117 \u2014 76ers 117 (i.e., a dead heat).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n My independent analysis (which explicitly uses Pythagorean expected-win, simple score-blend, and injury adjustments) leans Bulls by 1<\/strong> and favors the game very close to the market total (239 \/ 239.5)<\/strong> \u2014 which I view as the more reliable actionable read because it explicitly incorporates the up-to-the-minute injury signals and the teams\u2019 offensive\/defensive profiles rather than a single site\u2019s internal computer pick.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n 1) What the major models said (public outputs I found) I targeted reputable model\/output sources (ESPN, SportsLine, FanDuel\/numberFire, SportsGambler, OddsShark \/ site computer picks and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[2307,382,1227,2308,196,310,883,2306],"class_list":["post-29961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","tag-ai-analysis-for-nba","tag-ai-nba-analysis","tag-ai-prediction-tool","tag-ai-predictions-nba","tag-free-nba-game-analysis","tag-nba-ai-game-prediction","tag-nba-ai-picks","tag-nba-player-props","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/NBA-Philadelphia-76ers-vs.-Chicago-Bulls.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29961"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29961\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29988,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29961\/revisions\/29988"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n2) Averaging the public<\/strong> final-score predictions<\/h1>\n
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\n3) My independent prediction (method & numbers)<\/h1>\n
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\n4) Comparing averaged model output vs my prediction & which is most reliable<\/h1>\n
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\n5) Final pick (actionable)<\/h1>\n
My PICK: Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline +105 (LOSE)<\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"