{"id":29815,"date":"2025-10-28T10:31:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T10:31:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29815"},"modified":"2025-10-29T10:44:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T10:44:49","slug":"jets-aim-to-ground-the-wild-in-st-paul-showdown-at-grand-casino-arena","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/jets-aim-to-ground-the-wild-in-st-paul-showdown-at-grand-casino-arena\/","title":{"rendered":"Jets Aim to Ground the Wild in St. Paul Showdown at Grand Casino Arena"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 data-start=\"337\" data-end=\"396\">What I could (and couldn\u2019t) collect from the major models<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"397\" data-end=\"1373\">\n<li data-start=\"397\" data-end=\"610\">\n<p data-start=\"399\" data-end=\"610\"><strong data-start=\"399\" data-end=\"413\">SportsLine<\/strong> shows a \u201cPROJECTED SCORE\u201d box and model simulations on the matchup page but the detailed projected score &amp; simulation picks are behind a subscriber paywall.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"611\" data-end=\"844\">\n<p data-start=\"613\" data-end=\"844\"><strong data-start=\"613\" data-end=\"631\">Action Network<\/strong> has the official matchup page with odds, injuries, public betting splits and team trends (it lists the Jets and Wild records, moneyline info and a current injury snapshot).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"845\" data-end=\"998\">\n<p data-start=\"847\" data-end=\"998\"><strong data-start=\"847\" data-end=\"855\">ESPN<\/strong> matchup\/game page gives the public team stats I used (Goals for\/against per game, shots, recent form).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"999\" data-end=\"1151\">\n<p data-start=\"1001\" data-end=\"1151\"><strong data-start=\"1001\" data-end=\"1011\">Dimers<\/strong> publishes a simulation-based win probability for the game (example: Jets ~53% in their simulation).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1152\" data-end=\"1373\">\n<p data-start=\"1154\" data-end=\"1373\"><strong data-start=\"1154\" data-end=\"1195\">DailyFaceoff \/ fantasy schedule pages<\/strong> list strength-of-schedule (SOS) context showing the Jets and Wild have very similar SOS rankings (both around the same middle\/top-10 band).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1375\" data-end=\"1983\"><strong data-start=\"1375\" data-end=\"1411\">Bottom line on model collection:<\/strong> several top outlets either publish win probabilities or require subscriptions for per-game <em data-start=\"1503\" data-end=\"1516\">final score<\/em> projections. I was able to collect public win-probabilities, trends and injuries \u2014 but <strong data-start=\"1604\" data-end=\"1659\">many of the \u201cfinal-score\u201d projections are paywalled<\/strong>, so there isn\u2019t a full public set of five explicit <em data-start=\"1711\" data-end=\"1724\">final-score<\/em> numbers to average. Where a model\u2019s explicit score was unavailable, I used the model outputs that are public (win probability, team stats and public simulations) and combined them with my independent projection below. (I list sources above for transparency.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1985\" data-end=\"1988\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"1990\" data-end=\"2017\">Key verified facts I used<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"2018\" data-end=\"2687\">\n<li data-start=\"2018\" data-end=\"2159\">\n<p data-start=\"2020\" data-end=\"2159\">Jets offense \/ defense: <strong data-start=\"2044\" data-end=\"2068\">3.33 GF\/G, 2.44 GA\/G<\/strong>. Wild: <strong data-start=\"2076\" data-end=\"2100\">2.70 GF\/G, 3.90 GA\/G<\/strong> (ESPN team stats)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2160\" data-end=\"2427\">\n<p data-start=\"2162\" data-end=\"2427\">Injuries (wild): Minnesota has a few names listed as out\/day-to-day (e.g., Zuccarello, Bogosian, Sturm listed out or day-to-day) and Jets have some absences (Samberg, Perfetti). I factored those absences into lineup strength.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2428\" data-end=\"2571\">\n<p data-start=\"2430\" data-end=\"2571\">Public betting is currently skewed toward the Jets (Action Network shows public % and line movement).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2572\" data-end=\"2687\">\n<p data-start=\"2574\" data-end=\"2687\">Strength of schedule: Jets and Wild show comparable SOS (no large SOS gap).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2689\" data-end=\"2692\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2694\" data-end=\"2742\">My independent quantitative rundown (computed)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"2743\" data-end=\"2762\">Inputs (from ESPN):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"2886\">\n<li data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"2805\">\n<p data-start=\"2765\" data-end=\"2805\">Jets GF\/G = <strong data-start=\"2777\" data-end=\"2785\">3.33<\/strong>, GA\/G = <strong data-start=\"2794\" data-end=\"2802\">2.44<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2806\" data-end=\"2886\">\n<p data-start=\"2808\" data-end=\"2886\">Wild GF\/G = <strong data-start=\"2820\" data-end=\"2828\">2.70<\/strong>, GA\/G = <strong data-start=\"2837\" data-end=\"2845\">3.90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol data-start=\"2888\" data-end=\"4457\">\n<li data-start=\"2888\" data-end=\"3052\">\n<p data-start=\"2891\" data-end=\"2942\"><strong data-start=\"2891\" data-end=\"2920\">Pythagorean expected win%<\/strong> (using exponent 2):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2946\" data-end=\"3052\">\n<li data-start=\"2946\" data-end=\"2967\">\n<p data-start=\"2948\" data-end=\"2967\">Jets \u2248 <strong data-start=\"2955\" data-end=\"2964\">65.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2971\" data-end=\"3052\">\n<p data-start=\"2973\" data-end=\"3052\">Wild \u2248 <strong data-start=\"2980\" data-end=\"2989\">32.4%<\/strong>.<br data-start=\"2990\" data-end=\"2993\" \/>(calculated from GF and GA per game: GF\u00b2 \/ (GF\u00b2 + GA\u00b2).)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3054\" data-end=\"3438\">\n<p data-start=\"3057\" data-end=\"3173\"><strong data-start=\"3057\" data-end=\"3085\">Expected goals this game<\/strong> \u2014 simple and common neutral estimator: average each team\u2019s GF\/G with opponent\u2019s GA\/G:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3177\" data-end=\"3346\">\n<li data-start=\"3177\" data-end=\"3261\">\n<p data-start=\"3179\" data-end=\"3261\">Jets expected goals = (Jets GF\/G + Wild GA\/G) \/ 2 = (3.33 + 3.90)\/2 = <strong data-start=\"3249\" data-end=\"3258\">3.615<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3265\" data-end=\"3346\">\n<p data-start=\"3267\" data-end=\"3346\">Wild expected goals = (Wild GF\/G + Jets GA\/G) \/ 2 = (2.70 + 2.44)\/2 = <strong data-start=\"3337\" data-end=\"3345\">2.57<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3351\" data-end=\"3438\">That yields a <strong data-start=\"3365\" data-end=\"3418\">model-derived line of roughly Jets 3.6 \u2014 Wild 2.6<\/strong> (total \u2248 <strong data-start=\"3428\" data-end=\"3436\">6.18<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3440\" data-end=\"4232\">\n<p data-start=\"3443\" data-end=\"3503\"><strong data-start=\"3443\" data-end=\"3503\">Context adjustments (qualitative + small numeric tweaks)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3507\" data-end=\"4232\">\n<li data-start=\"3507\" data-end=\"3827\">\n<p data-start=\"3509\" data-end=\"3827\"><strong data-start=\"3509\" data-end=\"3534\">Injuries\/availability<\/strong>: Minnesota is missing a few depth pieces (Zuccarello, Bogosian listed out), which reduces scoring depth and puck luck. Winnipeg also has a couple of absences but the Jets\u2019 top scoring lines and goaltending (lower GAA) look stronger in the short-term.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3831\" data-end=\"4085\">\n<p data-start=\"3833\" data-end=\"4085\"><strong data-start=\"3833\" data-end=\"3865\">Form \/ rest \/ recent results<\/strong>: Jets are hotter overall (better recent record); Wild have given up a few high-scoring games recently (blown-in goals against). Action Network and ESPN trend pages reflect that.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4089\" data-end=\"4232\">\n<p data-start=\"4091\" data-end=\"4232\"><strong data-start=\"4091\" data-end=\"4098\">SOS<\/strong>: both teams face similar opponent quality; no major SOS tilt to heavily flip the expectation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4234\" data-end=\"4457\">\n<p data-start=\"4237\" data-end=\"4457\"><strong data-start=\"4237\" data-end=\"4282\">Small rounding to practical betting score<\/strong>: that projects to a <strong data-start=\"4303\" data-end=\"4350\">final-score style call of <em data-start=\"4331\" data-end=\"4348\">Jets 4 \u2014 Wild 3<\/em><\/strong> (I round Jets 3.6 \u2192 4 and Wild 2.57 \u2192 3 because of likely second-half scoring and special teams variance).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr data-start=\"4459\" data-end=\"4462\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"4464\" data-end=\"4508\">\u201cCollected model average\u201d (practical note)<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"4509\" data-end=\"5023\">\n<li data-start=\"4509\" data-end=\"5023\">\n<p data-start=\"4511\" data-end=\"5023\">Because several leading models (SportsLine, some proprietary BetQL features) hide their <strong data-start=\"4599\" data-end=\"4623\">explicit final-score<\/strong> behind subscriptions, I could not pull five <em data-start=\"4668\" data-end=\"4678\">explicit<\/em> per-model scores to arithmetically average in a clean way. Where available, simulations \/ win-probabilities (Dimers, publicly visible projections, Action Network trends) lean to the <strong data-start=\"4861\" data-end=\"4869\">Jets<\/strong>. SportsLine indicates a projects box but requires subscription for the detailed projected score\/simulation picks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"5025\" data-end=\"5101\"><strong data-start=\"5025\" data-end=\"5088\">So instead of an unavailable \u201caveraged 5-model final-score\u201d<\/strong>, I produced:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"5102\" data-end=\"5279\">\n<li data-start=\"5102\" data-end=\"5176\">\n<p data-start=\"5104\" data-end=\"5176\">an accessible-model consensus (win% \/ simulation lean \u2192 <strong data-start=\"5160\" data-end=\"5168\">Jets<\/strong>), and<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5177\" data-end=\"5279\">\n<p data-start=\"5179\" data-end=\"5279\">an independent, transparent numeric projection (Pythagorean + expected goals \u2192 <strong data-start=\"5258\" data-end=\"5277\">Jets 4 \u2014 Wild 3<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"5281\" data-end=\"5284\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5286\" data-end=\"5334\">Final pick<\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #339966;\">My PICK: Winnipeg Jets Moneyline -110 (WIN)<\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What I could (and couldn\u2019t) collect from the major models SportsLine shows a \u201cPROJECTED SCORE\u201d box and model simulations on the matchup page but the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29816,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[125],"tags":[241,466,465,731,742,750,464,730,131],"class_list":["post-29815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-analytical-insights","tag-nhl-game-insights","tag-nhl-games-today-predictions","tag-nhl-hockey","tag-nhl-pediction","tag-nhl-prediction-tips","tag-nhl-predictions-today","tag-nhl-sports-picks-using-ai","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/NHL-Winnipeg-Jets-vs.-Minnesota-Wild-g.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29815"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29852,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29815\/revisions\/29852"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}