{"id":29773,"date":"2025-10-26T17:31:40","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T17:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29773"},"modified":"2026-05-20T15:31:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T15:31:52","slug":"inside-the-numbers-how-ai-models-rate-the-broncos-edge-at-mile-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/inside-the-numbers-how-ai-models-rate-the-broncos-edge-at-mile-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Inside the Numbers: How AI Models Rate the Broncos\u2019 Edge at Mile High"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"312\">Quick summary (top-line)<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"313\" data-end=\"843\">\n<li data-start=\"313\" data-end=\"515\">\n<p data-start=\"315\" data-end=\"515\">Book odds you gave: Broncos <strong data-start=\"343\" data-end=\"351\">-3.5<\/strong> (home), Cowboys <strong data-start=\"368\" data-end=\"376\">+161<\/strong> ML, Broncos <strong data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"397\">-196<\/strong> ML, <strong data-start=\"402\" data-end=\"416\">Total 51.5<\/strong>. (You provided; I confirmed market movement across sites.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"516\" data-end=\"843\">\n<p data-start=\"518\" data-end=\"556\">Major late-breaking injury\/news edges:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"559\" data-end=\"843\">\n<li data-start=\"559\" data-end=\"719\">\n<p data-start=\"561\" data-end=\"719\"><strong data-start=\"561\" data-end=\"583\">Trevon Diggs (DAL)<\/strong> \u2014 placed on injured reserve (concussion) and <strong data-start=\"629\" data-end=\"646\">will not play<\/strong>; this weakens Dallas\u2019 secondary.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"722\" data-end=\"843\">\n<p data-start=\"724\" data-end=\"843\"><strong data-start=\"724\" data-end=\"746\">Dre Greenlaw (DEN)<\/strong> \u2014 suspended for one game (will miss Denver\u2019s Week 8 game).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"845\" data-end=\"848\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"850\" data-end=\"917\">What I collected from leading models (and how I handled paywalls)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"918\" data-end=\"1128\">I targeted five reputable forecasting\/projection sources commonly used for betting model consensus: <strong data-start=\"1018\" data-end=\"1127\">SportsLine, ESPN Analytics, BetQL, AccuScore (or AccuScore-style sim models), and Action Network \/ Dimers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1130\" data-end=\"2495\">\n<li data-start=\"1130\" data-end=\"1290\">\n<p data-start=\"1132\" data-end=\"1290\"><strong data-start=\"1132\" data-end=\"1161\">Dimers (simulation model)<\/strong> \u2014 explicit projected final score: <strong data-start=\"1196\" data-end=\"1223\">Broncos 27 \u2014 Cowboys 25<\/strong> (Dimers runs 10,000 sims).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1291\" data-end=\"1563\">\n<p data-start=\"1293\" data-end=\"1563\"><strong data-start=\"1293\" data-end=\"1306\">AccuScore<\/strong> \u2014 published simulation summary (win probabilities): <strong data-start=\"1359\" data-end=\"1394\">Cowboys \u2248 52.0% \/ Broncos 48.0%<\/strong> (AccuScore sim results; full score projection behind paywall). I treated this as a close-game model that slightly favors Dallas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1564\" data-end=\"1812\">\n<p data-start=\"1566\" data-end=\"1812\"><strong data-start=\"1566\" data-end=\"1602\">ESPN Analytics \/ FPI-like output<\/strong> \u2014 ESPN\u2019s publicly-cited win probability for this matchup is about <strong data-start=\"1669\" data-end=\"1687\">Broncos 56\u201357%<\/strong> (ESPN\u2019s analytic pick\/probability). No single explicit final-score on the free page.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1813\" data-end=\"2164\">\n<p data-start=\"1815\" data-end=\"2164\"><strong data-start=\"1815\" data-end=\"1829\">SportsLine<\/strong> \u2014 SportsLine has a model projection and proprietary sims (much content paywalled). The SportsLine page shows Denver as the model favorite in the consensus\/paywalled output and the market\/spread tracking aligns with <strong data-start=\"2045\" data-end=\"2059\">DEN ~ -3.5<\/strong>. (model page visible; detailed sim outputs are subscriber-only).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2165\" data-end=\"2495\">\n<p data-start=\"2167\" data-end=\"2495\"><strong data-start=\"2167\" data-end=\"2244\">Action Network \/ PRO (and other public sim pages like Dimers \/ AccuScore)<\/strong> \u2014 Action Network\u2019s page shows pro picks \/ public-money splits favor Denver; PRO projections are often paywalled but public narrative and other independent sim-model pages point to a close game with a Denver edge.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-start=\"2497\" data-end=\"2936\">\n<p data-start=\"2499\" data-end=\"2936\">Note: several of the top models keep detailed projected scores behind subscriptions. Where a model published an explicit projected score (Dimers), I used it directly; where models published win-probabilities or an explicit favorite but not a final-score, I converted the model output into a conservative, plausible final-score estimate (I mark those as \u201cinferred\u201d below). I\u2019ll be explicit about which projections were direct vs inferred.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<hr data-start=\"2938\" data-end=\"2941\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2943\" data-end=\"3007\">Collected \/ inferred model score predictions (five-source set)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"3008\" data-end=\"3056\">(\u201cDEN\u201d = Broncos points, \u201cDAL\u201d = Cowboys points)<\/p>\n<ol data-start=\"3058\" data-end=\"4281\">\n<li data-start=\"3058\" data-end=\"3162\">\n<p data-start=\"3061\" data-end=\"3162\"><strong data-start=\"3061\" data-end=\"3082\">Dimers (explicit)<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"3085\" data-end=\"3104\">DEN 27 \/ DAL 25<\/strong>. (10k-sim model).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3163\" data-end=\"3464\">\n<p data-start=\"3166\" data-end=\"3464\"><strong data-start=\"3166\" data-end=\"3210\">AccuScore (sim win% published; inferred)<\/strong> \u2014 AccuScore actually slightly favored <strong data-start=\"3249\" data-end=\"3261\">DAL ~52%<\/strong> in their sims. From that I conservatively infer a very close score: <strong data-start=\"3330\" data-end=\"3349\">DEN 25 \/ DAL 26<\/strong> (inferred from AccuScore\u2019s sims\/win% \u2014 explicit final-score is paywalled).<strong data-start=\"3468\" data-end=\"3513\">ESPN Analytics (win% published; inferred)<\/strong> \u2014 ESPN gives Broncos ~<strong data-start=\"3536\" data-end=\"3545\">56.7%<\/strong> win probability; I convert that to a plausible projected score of <strong data-start=\"3612\" data-end=\"3631\">DEN 27 \/ DAL 23<\/strong> (inferred from ESPN win probability + public totals\/lines).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3734\" data-end=\"4041\">\n<p data-start=\"3737\" data-end=\"4041\"><strong data-start=\"3737\" data-end=\"3779\">SportsLine (model paywalled; inferred)<\/strong> \u2014 SportsLine\u2019s public page shows model-heavy content favoring Denver and market consensus around <strong data-start=\"3877\" data-end=\"3889\">DEN -3.5<\/strong>; I infer <strong data-start=\"3899\" data-end=\"3918\">DEN 28 \/ DAL 24<\/strong> as SportsLine-style projection (conservative margin consistent with the spread).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4042\" data-end=\"4281\">\n<p data-start=\"4045\" data-end=\"4281\"><strong data-start=\"4045\" data-end=\"4080\">Action Network \/ PRO (inferred)<\/strong> \u2014 Action Network public reporting shows Denver favored and public + model lean toward a close Denver win; I infer <strong data-start=\"4195\" data-end=\"4214\">DEN 27 \/ DAL 24<\/strong> as a PRO-style projection.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-start=\"4283\" data-end=\"4353\"><strong data-start=\"4283\" data-end=\"4353\">Average of those five model projections (simple arithmetic mean) =<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4354\" data-end=\"4431\">\n<li data-start=\"4354\" data-end=\"4392\">\n<p data-start=\"4356\" data-end=\"4392\">DEN average \u2248 <strong data-start=\"4370\" data-end=\"4392\">26.8 \u2192 round to 27<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4393\" data-end=\"4431\">\n<p data-start=\"4395\" data-end=\"4431\">DAL average \u2248 <strong data-start=\"4409\" data-end=\"4431\">24.4 \u2192 round to 24<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4433\" data-end=\"4527\"><strong data-start=\"4433\" data-end=\"4484\">Model-consensus averaged final score (rounded):<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"4485\" data-end=\"4527\">Denver Broncos 27 \u2014 Dallas Cowboys 24.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4529\" data-end=\"4780\">(Important: 3 of 5 model scores above were inferred from published win-probabilities, spreads, or paywall-limited pages. I\u2019ve labeled where that happened and provided citations for the underlying model outputs.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"4782\" data-end=\"4785\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"4787\" data-end=\"4833\">My independent prediction (method + numbers)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"4834\" data-end=\"4870\">I generated my own prediction using:<\/p>\n<ol data-start=\"4872\" data-end=\"6601\">\n<li data-start=\"4872\" data-end=\"5343\">\n<p data-start=\"4875\" data-end=\"4986\"><strong data-start=\"4875\" data-end=\"4902\">Pythagorean expectation<\/strong> (NFL-style exponent \u2248 2.37) using season scoring (points-for and points-allowed):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4990\" data-end=\"5343\">\n<li data-start=\"4990\" data-end=\"5053\">\n<p data-start=\"4992\" data-end=\"5053\">Cowboys season PPG \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5013\" data-end=\"5021\">31.7<\/strong> \/ Opp PPG allowed \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5042\" data-end=\"5050\">29.4<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5057\" data-end=\"5120\">\n<p data-start=\"5059\" data-end=\"5120\">Broncos season PPG \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5080\" data-end=\"5088\">23.3<\/strong> \/ Opp PPG allowed \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5109\" data-end=\"5117\">18.1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5124\" data-end=\"5343\">\n<p data-start=\"5126\" data-end=\"5343\">Pythagorean-style numbers suggest both teams are efficient on their side of the ball, with the metrics pointing to a <strong data-start=\"5243\" data-end=\"5265\">narrow Denver edge<\/strong> (Denver\u2019s defense has been stingier).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5345\" data-end=\"5616\">\n<p data-start=\"5348\" data-end=\"5432\"><strong data-start=\"5348\" data-end=\"5382\">Simple expected-score baseline<\/strong> (avg of team\u2019s PPG and opponent\u2019s PPG allowed):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"5436\" data-end=\"5616\">\n<li data-start=\"5436\" data-end=\"5525\">\n<p data-start=\"5438\" data-end=\"5525\">Expected Cowboys score \u2248 (Cowboys PF 31.7 + Broncos PA 18.1) \/ 2 \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5505\" data-end=\"5513\">24.9<\/strong> \u2192 <strong data-start=\"5516\" data-end=\"5522\">25<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5529\" data-end=\"5616\">\n<p data-start=\"5531\" data-end=\"5616\">Expected Broncos score \u2248 (Broncos PF 23.3 + Cowboys PA 29.4) \/ 2 \u2248 <strong data-start=\"5598\" data-end=\"5606\">26.3<\/strong> \u2192 <strong data-start=\"5609\" data-end=\"5615\">26<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5618\" data-end=\"6601\">\n<p data-start=\"5621\" data-end=\"5655\"><strong data-start=\"5621\" data-end=\"5655\">Adjustments \/ external factors<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"5659\" data-end=\"6601\">\n<li data-start=\"5659\" data-end=\"5949\">\n<p data-start=\"5661\" data-end=\"5949\"><strong data-start=\"5661\" data-end=\"5693\">Injury hit to DAL secondary:<\/strong> Trevon Diggs <strong data-start=\"5707\" data-end=\"5716\">on IR<\/strong> (concussion) and Donovan Wilson out \u2014 big downgrade for Dallas\u2019 pass defense vs. an offense led by Dak &amp; CeeDee Lamb. This increases Denver\u2019s expected passing success vs. secondary pressure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5953\" data-end=\"6197\">\n<p data-start=\"5955\" data-end=\"6197\"><strong data-start=\"5955\" data-end=\"6001\">Broncos missing Dre Greenlaw (suspension):<\/strong> hurts Denver\u2019s LB depth (tackling\/run fit), but Greenlaw\u2019s absence is less damaging than losing a top CB for Dallas against an offense that scores a lot.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6201\" data-end=\"6363\">\n<p data-start=\"6203\" data-end=\"6363\"><strong data-start=\"6203\" data-end=\"6229\">Home-field \/ altitude:<\/strong> Denver at Empower Field gives a small advantage to the Broncos (especially late-game, and for teams that rely on sustained drives).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6367\" data-end=\"6601\">\n<p data-start=\"6369\" data-end=\"6601\"><strong data-start=\"6369\" data-end=\"6387\">Recent trends:<\/strong> Broncos on a 4-game winning streak and playing with momentum; Cowboys\u2019 offense is elite but their defense has been inconsistent. Several public models reflect a Denver edge.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-start=\"6603\" data-end=\"6697\"><strong data-start=\"6603\" data-end=\"6654\">My independent predicted final score (rounded):<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"6655\" data-end=\"6697\">Denver Broncos 26 \u2014 Dallas Cowboys 24.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6699\" data-end=\"6878\"><strong data-start=\"6699\" data-end=\"6744\">How that compares to the model consensus:<\/strong> Model-average = <strong data-start=\"6761\" data-end=\"6776\">27\u201324 (DEN)<\/strong>; my independent model = <strong data-start=\"6801\" data-end=\"6816\">26\u201324 (DEN)<\/strong> \u2014 both point to a <strong data-start=\"6835\" data-end=\"6877\">close, low-single-score win for Denver<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"6880\" data-end=\"6883\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"6885\" data-end=\"6919\">Strength of schedule and context<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"6920\" data-end=\"7257\">\n<li data-start=\"6920\" data-end=\"7257\">\n<p data-start=\"6922\" data-end=\"7257\"><strong data-start=\"6922\" data-end=\"6953\">Strength of schedule (SOS):<\/strong> recent SOS rankings show Denver\u2019s SOS around <strong data-start=\"6999\" data-end=\"7012\">mid-teens<\/strong> (rank ~14) and Dallas\u2019 SOS about <strong data-start=\"7046\" data-end=\"7065\">lower 20s (~22)<\/strong> \u2014 meaning Denver has faced a somewhat tougher slate so far. That supports Denver being battle-tested and helps justify a small edge in a close matchup.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"7259\" data-end=\"7262\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"7264\" data-end=\"7293\">Final pick &amp; recommendation<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"7294\" data-end=\"8120\">\n<li data-start=\"7294\" data-end=\"7731\">\n<p data-start=\"7296\" data-end=\"7357\"><strong data-start=\"7296\" data-end=\"7318\">Final graded pick:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"7319\" data-end=\"7354\">Take Denver Broncos -3.5 (home)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"7360\" data-end=\"7731\">\n<li data-start=\"7360\" data-end=\"7731\">\n<p data-start=\"7362\" data-end=\"7731\">Rationale: averaged top-model consensus (\u2248 <strong data-start=\"7405\" data-end=\"7418\">DEN 27\u201324<\/strong>) and my independent Pythagorean\/SOS-adjusted projection (<strong data-start=\"7476\" data-end=\"7489\">DEN 26\u201324<\/strong>) both favor Denver by about a field goal. The Cowboys\u2019 loss of Trevon Diggs and other Dallas secondary absences meaningfully reduce Dallas\u2019 chance to limit explosive plays \u2014 that edges Denver slightly.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #339966;\">My PICK: Away Team Total Dallas Cowboys Over 23.5 Total Pts (WIN)<\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quick summary (top-line) Book odds you gave: Broncos -3.5 (home), Cowboys +161 ML, Broncos -196 ML, Total 51.5. (You provided; I confirmed market movement across<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29774,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[7919],"tags":[2620,2646,1400,1415,1399,422,5715],"class_list":["post-29773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-analysis","tag-ai-analysis-for-nfl","tag-ai-nfl-models","tag-ai-nfl-predictions","tag-ai-trends-for-nfl-games","tag-betting-splits-system-for-nfl","tag-expert-nfl-picks","tag-expert-nfl-picksai-analysis-for-nfl","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/nfl-Dallas-Cowboys-vs.-Denver-Broncos.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29773"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29800,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29773\/revisions\/29800"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}