{"id":29622,"date":"2025-10-15T12:35:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T12:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29622"},"modified":"2025-10-16T09:51:27","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T09:51:27","slug":"data-driven-insight-can-the-blues-hold-off-the-blackhawks-at-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/data-driven-insight-can-the-blues-hold-off-the-blackhawks-at-home\/","title":{"rendered":"Data-Driven Insight: Can the Blues Hold Off the Blackhawks at Home?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 data-start=\"381\" data-end=\"444\">1) Which model\/pick sources I used (public score predictions)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"445\" data-end=\"522\">(I pulled explicit <em data-start=\"464\" data-end=\"477\">final-score<\/em> predictions where the outlet published one.)<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"524\" data-end=\"993\">\n<li data-start=\"524\" data-end=\"614\">\n<p data-start=\"526\" data-end=\"614\"><strong data-start=\"526\" data-end=\"544\">BleacherNation<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"547\" data-end=\"573\">Chicago 5, St. Louis 1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"615\" data-end=\"706\">\n<p data-start=\"617\" data-end=\"706\"><strong data-start=\"617\" data-end=\"636\">PicksAndParlays<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"639\" data-end=\"665\">St. Louis 4, Chicago 2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"707\" data-end=\"801\">\n<p data-start=\"709\" data-end=\"801\"><strong data-start=\"709\" data-end=\"732\">Last Word on Sports<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"735\" data-end=\"760\">Blues 6, Blackhawks 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"802\" data-end=\"909\">\n<p data-start=\"804\" data-end=\"909\"><strong data-start=\"804\" data-end=\"840\">FSR\/iHeart (computer model page)<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"843\" data-end=\"868\">Blackhawks 9, Blues 0<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"910\" data-end=\"993\">\n<p data-start=\"912\" data-end=\"993\"><strong data-start=\"912\" data-end=\"926\">KnupSports<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"929\" data-end=\"954\">Blues 4, Blackhawks 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-start=\"995\" data-end=\"1564\">\n<p data-start=\"997\" data-end=\"1564\">Note: I attempted to include SportsLine and BetQL outputs \u2014 SportsLine shows a \u201cPROJECTED SCORE\u201d box but the numeric projections are behind the subscriber paywall and unavailable without membership (they do show public\/sharp money splits). BetQL provides model picks and tools but doesn\u2019t show a single public final-score in a simple page I could capture. I therefore used five accessible, reputable published predictions above. (I cite SportsLine \/ Action Network \/ ESPN pages where I reference team stats or injury info below.)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<hr data-start=\"1566\" data-end=\"1569\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"1571\" data-end=\"1602\">2) Averaged models \u2014 the math<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"1603\" data-end=\"1720\">I converted each published prediction into <strong data-start=\"1646\" data-end=\"1682\">(St. Louis score, Chicago score)<\/strong> and averaged across the five sources:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1722\" data-end=\"2043\">\n<li data-start=\"1722\" data-end=\"1788\">\n<p data-start=\"1724\" data-end=\"1788\">BleacherNation \u2192 (1, 5).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1789\" data-end=\"1856\">\n<p data-start=\"1791\" data-end=\"1856\">PicksAndParlays \u2192 (4, 2).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1857\" data-end=\"1917\">\n<p data-start=\"1859\" data-end=\"1917\">LastWord \u2192 (6, 3).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1918\" data-end=\"1980\">\n<p data-start=\"1920\" data-end=\"1980\">FSR\/iHeart \u2192 (0, 9).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1981\" data-end=\"2043\">\n<p data-start=\"1983\" data-end=\"2043\">KnupSports \u2192 (4, 3).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2045\" data-end=\"2189\">Sum St. Louis = 1 + 4 + 6 + 0 + 4 = <strong data-start=\"2081\" data-end=\"2087\">15<\/strong> \u2192 average = <strong data-start=\"2100\" data-end=\"2116\">15 \/ 5 = 3.0<\/strong><br data-start=\"2116\" data-end=\"2119\" \/>Sum Chicago = 5 + 2 + 3 + 9 + 3 = <strong data-start=\"2154\" data-end=\"2160\">22<\/strong> \u2192 average = <strong data-start=\"2173\" data-end=\"2189\">22 \/ 5 = 4.4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2191\" data-end=\"2382\"><strong data-start=\"2191\" data-end=\"2251\">Averaged final-score from these 5 published predictions:<\/strong><br data-start=\"2251\" data-end=\"2254\" \/><strong data-start=\"2254\" data-end=\"2285\">Chicago 4.4 \u2014 St. Louis 3.0<\/strong> \u2192 rounded to <strong data-start=\"2299\" data-end=\"2326\">Chicago 4 \u2014 St. Louis 3<\/strong> (models\u2019 aggregate slightly favors an upset to Chicago)<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2384\" data-end=\"2462\">(References to each prediction above.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2464\" data-end=\"2467\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2469\" data-end=\"2518\">3) My independent prediction (method + numbers)<\/h1>\n<h3 data-start=\"2520\" data-end=\"2533\">Data used<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2534\" data-end=\"3159\">\n<li data-start=\"2534\" data-end=\"2708\">\n<p data-start=\"2536\" data-end=\"2708\">Early-season team per-game numbers \/ box-score context from ESPN \/ Action Network (goals-for, goals-against, shots, recent results).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2709\" data-end=\"2927\">\n<p data-start=\"2711\" data-end=\"2927\">Injury \/ status reports (Blues: Oskar Sundqvist out, Alexey Toropchenko day-to-day; Blues day-to-day list; Blackhawks: Laurent Brossoit out, Shea Weber out, Joey Anderson out).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2928\" data-end=\"3159\">\n<p data-start=\"2930\" data-end=\"3159\">Recent results: Blues have been strong on their road trip (4\u20132, 5\u20132) and looking in form; Blackhawks are 1-2-1 but have some scoring pieces (Connor Bedard, Spencer Knight goaltending form).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"3161\" data-end=\"3208\">Pythagorean-theorem (simple hockey version)<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3209\" data-end=\"3282\">Using current per-game GF\/G and GA\/G (small-sample early-season numbers):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3284\" data-end=\"3451\">\n<li data-start=\"3284\" data-end=\"3374\">\n<p data-start=\"3286\" data-end=\"3374\">Chicago GF = <strong data-start=\"3299\" data-end=\"3307\">2.50<\/strong>, GA = <strong data-start=\"3314\" data-end=\"3322\">2.75<\/strong> \u2192 Pythagorean expected win% \u2248 <strong data-start=\"3353\" data-end=\"3371\">0.4525 (45.3%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3375\" data-end=\"3451\">\n<p data-start=\"3377\" data-end=\"3451\">St. Louis GF = <strong data-start=\"3392\" data-end=\"3400\">3.00<\/strong>, GA = <strong data-start=\"3407\" data-end=\"3415\">3.00<\/strong> \u2192 expected win% \u2248 <strong data-start=\"3434\" data-end=\"3450\">0.50 (50.0%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3453\" data-end=\"3577\">(Formula used: GF\u00b2 \/ (GF\u00b2 + GA\u00b2). Calculations from the team averages pulled above.)<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3579\" data-end=\"3622\">Strength of schedule &amp; external factors<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"3623\" data-end=\"4822\">\n<li data-start=\"3623\" data-end=\"4010\">\n<p data-start=\"3625\" data-end=\"4010\"><strong data-start=\"3625\" data-end=\"3644\">SOS \/ schedule:<\/strong> early-season sample but Blues\u2019 recent opponents (Calgary, Vancouver) are legitimate teams \u2014 Blues won both and look confident; Blackhawks\u2019 early opponents included some tougher matchups and a recent home win that got them back into it. Overall small-sample SOS slightly favors Blues (they\u2019ve beaten decent teams on the road).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4011\" data-end=\"4413\">\n<p data-start=\"4013\" data-end=\"4413\"><strong data-start=\"4013\" data-end=\"4034\">Goalies \/ starts:<\/strong> Blues have rotated Binnington \/ Hofer; Binnington had a poor one earlier but was bounced back recently \u2014 starting goalie reports are somewhat fluid. Blackhawks have seen <strong data-start=\"4205\" data-end=\"4223\">Spencer Knight<\/strong> and Arvid Soderblom; Knight\u2019s early numbers look solid (.920 SV% in early starts). Goalie start uncertainty slightly depresses confidence either way.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4414\" data-end=\"4688\">\n<p data-start=\"4416\" data-end=\"4688\"><strong data-start=\"4416\" data-end=\"4429\">Injuries:<\/strong> neither team missing top scorers, but role players are out on both sides (Blues: Sundqvist\/Toropchenko; Blackhawks: Brossoit\/Anderson\/Weber). Net effect: small impact \u2014 depth shift, but top lines intact for both teams.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4689\" data-end=\"4822\">\n<p data-start=\"4691\" data-end=\"4822\"><strong data-start=\"4691\" data-end=\"4707\">Rest\/travel:<\/strong> Blues are returning home after a short road trip (two wins). That momentum plus home ice gives them a modest edge.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"4824\" data-end=\"4863\">My computed\/rounded game projection<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4864\" data-end=\"4874\">Combining:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4875\" data-end=\"5117\">\n<li data-start=\"4875\" data-end=\"5117\">\n<p data-start=\"4877\" data-end=\"5117\">Pythagorean edge (Blues slight), home advantage, recent form favoring Blues, <strong data-start=\"4954\" data-end=\"4961\">but<\/strong> many public models are projecting a high-scoring game favoring Chicago on some pages (contrarian picks exist), and goalie uncertainty could swing outcomes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"5119\" data-end=\"5207\"><strong data-start=\"5119\" data-end=\"5151\">My prediction (final score):<\/strong><br data-start=\"5151\" data-end=\"5154\" \/><strong data-start=\"5154\" data-end=\"5206\">St. Louis Blues 4 \u2014 Chicago Blackhawks 3 (Final)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5209\" data-end=\"5513\"><strong data-start=\"5209\" data-end=\"5217\">Why:<\/strong> the Blues\u2019 offensive profile and recent form + home ice give them a small edge in expected goals; the Blackhawks have the firepower to make it high-scoring and to push this one close (so the game goes over the 5.5 total). I expect a close, high-scoring game where the Blues win by a single goal.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5515\" data-end=\"5585\">(Stats\/injury\/lineup sources).<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"5587\" data-end=\"5590\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5592\" data-end=\"5662\">4) Final Pick &amp; betting recommendation<\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">My Pick: St. Louis Blues Puck Line -1.5 (LOSE)<\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1) Which model\/pick sources I used (public score predictions) (I pulled explicit final-score predictions where the outlet published one.) BleacherNation \u2014 Chicago 5, St. Louis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[125],"tags":[241,466,465,731,742,750,464,730,131],"class_list":["post-29622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-analytical-insights","tag-nhl-game-insights","tag-nhl-games-today-predictions","tag-nhl-hockey","tag-nhl-pediction","tag-nhl-prediction-tips","tag-nhl-predictions-today","tag-nhl-sports-picks-using-ai","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/nhl-Chicago-Blackhawks-vs.-St.-Louis-Blues.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29622"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29646,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions\/29646"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}