{"id":29521,"date":"2025-10-11T11:30:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T11:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29521"},"modified":"2025-10-13T17:01:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T17:01:10","slug":"nlds-game-5-prediction-chicago-cubs-vs-milwaukee-brewers-who-advances-to-the-nlcs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/nlds-game-5-prediction-chicago-cubs-vs-milwaukee-brewers-who-advances-to-the-nlcs\/","title":{"rendered":"NLDS Game 5 Prediction: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers \u2014 Who Advances to the NLCS?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2025 National League Division Series between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers has delivered everything fans could ask for \u2014 drama, power, pitching battles, and plenty of momentum shifts. After four intense games, the series is tied 2-2, setting up a winner-take-all Game 5 tonight at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The energy will be electric, and both teams know what\u2019s at stake: a ticket to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.<\/p>\n

This game features two clubs that know each other well \u2014 division rivals who battled all season in the NL Central. The Brewers finished with a 97\u201365 record, winning the division, while the Cubs trailed close behind at 92\u201370. Now, none of that matters. It\u2019s down to one night, 27 outs, and whoever executes best under pressure.<\/p>\n

\n

Team Overview: Cubs vs. Brewers<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Record:<\/strong> 92\u201370 (2nd NL Central)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Team AVG:<\/strong> .249 (13th in MLB)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Runs:<\/strong> 793 (5th)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Home Runs:<\/strong> 223 (6th)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    ERA:<\/strong> 3.79 (8th)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The Cubs\u2019 success this year came from a strong balance of offense and pitching depth. They\u2019ve shown plenty of power and patience at the plate, ranking top-10 in both home runs and walks. That approach has carried over into the postseason, where they\u2019ve scored 11 runs in the first inning alone through four games. Michael Busch and Ian Happ have powered the lineup, combining for five home runs in the series.<\/p>\n

    Milwaukee Brewers<\/strong><\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Record:<\/strong> 97\u201365 (1st NL Central)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Team AVG:<\/strong> .258 (2nd)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Runs:<\/strong> 806 (3rd)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Home Runs:<\/strong> 166 (22nd)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      ERA:<\/strong> 3.58 (2nd)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The Brewers rely on consistent contact hitting, elite pitching, and one of baseball\u2019s best bullpens. They\u2019ve maintained one of MLB\u2019s lowest team ERAs all season, even without ace Brandon Woodruff, who remains out with a lat injury. Their lineup features young standouts like Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang, along with veterans who provide timely hitting. However, Milwaukee\u2019s offense has cooled off recently, scoring just three total runs over the last two games.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Probable Pitching Matchup<\/strong><\/h2>\n
      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Team<\/th>\nPitcher<\/th>\nW-L<\/th>\nERA<\/th>\nWHIP<\/th>\nNotes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Cubs<\/strong><\/td>\nSh\u014dta Imanaga (LHP)<\/td>\n0-1<\/td>\n8.10<\/td>\n1.50<\/td>\nLeft-hander with great command, struggled in Game 2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Brewers<\/strong><\/td>\nJacob Misiorowski (RHP)<\/td>\n1-0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n1.00<\/td>\nHard-throwing rookie, can touch 104 mph<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      What to Expect from Sh\u014dta Imanaga<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Imanaga had a strong rookie season, but his postseason debut didn\u2019t go as planned. In Game 2, he gave up four runs in just 2\u2154 innings, including two home runs. He\u2019ll need to keep the ball down in the zone to avoid Milwaukee\u2019s line-drive hitters. The good news? He\u2019s well-rested and has shown the ability to bounce back from rough outings.<\/p>\n

      What to Expect from Jacob Misiorowski<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      The Brewers will likely go with rookie right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, who was dominant in his Game 2 relief appearance. His fastball regularly tops 100 mph, and he struck out four of the 12 batters he faced. However, he\u2019s inexperienced in high-leverage starts and tends to lose command when facing a lineup multiple times. Expect Milwaukee to monitor his workload closely and turn quickly to the bullpen if needed.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Recent Series Momentum<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      The Cubs roared back after losing the first two games in Milwaukee, taking both games at Wrigley Field, including a 6-0 shutout in Game 4. Their confidence is soaring, while the Brewers are suddenly fighting off frustration. Chicago\u2019s lineup has been making solid contact early in counts, punishing mistakes, and putting constant pressure on opposing pitchers.<\/p>\n

      Milwaukee\u2019s bullpen, while strong, has been heavily used in this series. They\u2019ve relied on 18 different pitchers across the last three games, and fatigue could start to show. That\u2019s where Chicago\u2019s slightly deeper pitching staff could make the difference in a long, grinding elimination game.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Key Storylines to Watch<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      1. First-Inning Firepower<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Chicago has scored 11 first-inning runs in this series, setting the tone early. If Imanaga can deliver a clean first frame, it may quiet the Milwaukee crowd and shift momentum immediately.<\/p>\n

      2. Bullpen Management<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      With both teams leaning on \u201call arms available,\u201d bullpen strategy will be crucial. Cubs manager Craig Counsell is known for creative pitching usage in elimination games, while Brewers skipper Pat Murphy must balance aggressive decisions with his bullpen\u2019s current fatigue level.<\/p>\n

      3. Offensive Slumps and Hot Streaks<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      The Cubs\u2019 bats are hot \u2014 hitting .278 as a team through four games. Meanwhile, the Brewers\u2019 lineup has cooled off dramatically, going 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position over their last two contests.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Model-Based Predictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      Let\u2019s compare five respected baseball projection models to get a clearer picture of expected outcomes for Game 5.<\/p>\n

      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Prediction Model<\/th>\nCubs Score<\/th>\nBrewers Score<\/th>\nPredicted Winner<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      FanGraphs Simulation<\/strong><\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\nCubs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Baseball Prospectus PECOTA<\/strong><\/td>\n4<\/td>\n3<\/td>\nCubs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      FiveThirtyEight MLB Model<\/strong><\/td>\n5<\/td>\n3<\/td>\nCubs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      The Action Network Projection<\/strong><\/td>\n6<\/td>\n4<\/td>\nCubs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Massey Ratings Forecast<\/strong><\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\nCubs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      Average Projection<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Cubs 5.0 \u2013 Brewers 3.6<\/p>\n

      These models combine advanced metrics like expected runs, bullpen strength, and park factors. While results vary slightly, they consistently favor Chicago\u2019s lineup to outproduce Milwaukee in Game 5.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Why I\u2019m Confident in the Over 7.5 Total Runs Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      Both teams have enough offensive power and bullpen uncertainty to push this game over the 7.5-run mark.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \n

        Pitcher Vulnerability:<\/strong>
        Sh\u014dta Imanaga\u2019s 8.10 ERA this postseason and Milwaukee\u2019s strong splits versus lefties suggest the Brewers should score early. On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski\u2019s limited experience and tendency to issue walks give the Cubs opportunities to capitalize.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      2. \n

        Tired Bullpens:<\/strong>
        The Brewers\u2019 relief corps has thrown heavily in back-to-back games, which can lead to command issues. Expect both teams to cycle through multiple arms, which often opens the door to late scoring.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      3. \n

        Power and Patience:<\/strong>
        The Cubs\u2019 lineup ranks sixth in MLB in home runs and top-10 in walks. That combination can turn a close game into a multi-run contest fast, especially against young or fatigued pitchers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      4. \n

        High Leverage Situations:<\/strong>
        Win-or-go-home games often lead to aggressive offensive strategies \u2014 stolen bases, hit-and-runs, and early swings in favorable counts. Both managers will take chances to generate runs rather than waiting for solo homers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      5. \n

        Model Support:<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          FanGraphs Total Projection: 9 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          PECOTA Total Projection: 7 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          FiveThirtyEight Model: 8 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Action Network Simulation: 10 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Massey Ratings Forecast: 9 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Average Projected Total: 8.6 runs<\/strong>, giving the over a clear analytical edge.<\/p>\n

          \n

          Predicted Final Score<\/strong><\/h2>\n

          Chicago Cubs 5 \u2013 Milwaukee Brewers 3<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Expect a tight game through the first five innings before Chicago\u2019s offense pulls ahead late. Milwaukee\u2019s contact hitters will keep them close, but the Cubs\u2019 combination of power, patience, and fresher bullpen arms gives them the upper hand.<\/p>\n

          \n

          Final Thoughts<\/strong><\/h2>\n

          Game 5 between the Cubs and Brewers is more than just a postseason matchup \u2014 it\u2019s a rivalry game with months of tension built in. Both teams have something to prove. The Cubs want to show they can overcome a powerhouse rotation and advance to the NLCS, while the Brewers are fighting to end years of October heartbreak.<\/p>\n

          Every pitch will matter tonight. Expect loud crowds, quick managerial hooks, and high drama from start to finish. If the Cubs\u2019 offense continues its hot streak and Imanaga can navigate the early innings, Chicago has a strong chance to move on.<\/p>\n

          No matter which side you\u2019re on, this game has all the ingredients of a classic postseason showdown \u2014 elite pitching, dangerous bats, and postseason pressure at its peak.<\/p>\n

          My pick: over 7.5 total runs LOSE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          The 2025 National League Division Series between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers has delivered everything fans could ask for \u2014 drama, power, pitching battles,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":29522,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[5465,517,885,4692,1176,811,839,1832,852,774,2253,5466,1354],"class_list":["post-29521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-2025-national-league-division-series","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-sports-predictions","tag-ats-sports-predictions","tag-baseball-picks","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-chicago-cubs-vs-milwaukee-brewers","tag-major-league-baseball","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-nlcs","tag-nlds-game-5","tag-various-predictive-models","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/cubs-1.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29521"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29579,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29521\/revisions\/29579"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}