I pulled publicly-posted final-score projections \/ model predictions from reputable outlets that publish model-driven picks for Bengals @ Broncos \u2014 Sep 29, 2025<\/strong>:<\/p>\n SI \/ Sports Illustrated (final-score pick):<\/strong> Broncos 26 \u2014 Bengals 16<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n BleacherNation (staff predicted):<\/strong> Broncos 29 \u2014 Bengals 19<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Mile High Report (local staff consensus):<\/strong> Broncos 27 \u2014 Bengals 20<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Arizona Republic \/ Sports Betting Dime style projection:<\/strong> Broncos 22.3 \u2014 Bengals 17.9<\/strong> (numeric projection).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n ScoresAndStats \/ smaller model:<\/strong> Broncos 24 \u2014 Bengals 21<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n (Notes: some premium models \u2014 e.g., SportsLine and BetQL \u2014 publish picks but portions are behind paywalls; SportsLine\u2019s projection is publicly noted to be over<\/strong> on the total and projecting ~52 combined points<\/strong>, but their full per-team breakdown is behind their paywall. I still cite their public summary for context.)<\/p>\n I converted the five projections above to numbers and averaged them:<\/p>\n Broncos scores: 26, 29, 27, 22.3, 24<\/strong> \u2192 average = 25.66<\/strong> (\u2248 26<\/strong>) .<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Bengals scores: 16, 19, 20, 17.9, 21<\/strong> \u2192 average = 18.78<\/strong> (\u2248 19<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Averaged model final score \u2192 Broncos 26 \u2014 Bengals 19<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n That implies a model-average margin<\/em> of about +7 for Denver<\/strong> and combined points \u2248 45<\/strong> (note: SportsLine publicly projects more combined points, ~52, but their full numbers are paywalled).<\/p>\n I used:<\/p>\n Pythagorean expectation<\/strong> (NFL exponent \u2248 2.37) on season points for \/ against to date<\/em> (small sample but useful),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Strength of schedule (SOS)<\/strong> context,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Key external factors<\/strong>: injuries (Joe Burrow out; Bengals running\/OL problems; Broncos questionable\/limited injuries), home-field altitude, away travel, QB play trends and recent turnovers, and publicly reported model signals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Inputs \/ quick facts:<\/p>\n Through the previews I checked, the Bengals<\/strong> have scored 58 PF \/ 91 PA<\/strong> on the year; Broncos<\/strong> have 68 PF \/ 64 PA<\/strong> (small-sample early-season numbers).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Joe Burrow<\/strong> is out (toe surgery) \u2014 Bengals are starting Jake Browning<\/strong>, who has thrown multiple INTs in limited work. That\u2019s a major QB\/production downgrade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Broncos\u2019 home-field + altitude<\/strong> and a stout pass rush\/defensive pressure profile are real advantages. Broncos schedule for 2025 is roughly league-average-to-easier (sources rank Denver around 14th easiest \/ middle of pack SOS). Bengals\u2019 full-season SOS is around the mid-pack as well. That slightly favors Denver in long-term context.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Pythagorean quick calculation (precision):<\/p>\n Using PF\/PA and exponent 2.37:<\/p>\n Pythagorean win % \u2248 Broncos 53.6%<\/strong>, Bengals 25.6%<\/strong> (the rest is sample noise \/ variance).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n That gives a baseline edge to DEN, but not a blowout purely from those numbers. (I computed this from the PF\/PA numbers shown in the ESPN preview.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Adjustments I made beyond raw Pythagoras:<\/p>\n Downside to Bengals from Burrow absence<\/strong>: large. Backup QB turnover history (Jake Browning with multiple interceptions in limited time) materially reduces Cincinnati\u2019s expected scoring and increases turnover probability. That pushes Denver\u2019s win probability up substantially versus the simple Pyth. estimate.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Broncos defense & home altitude<\/strong>: increases Denver\u2019s expected margin (forces more run, more fatigue late for visiting skill players).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Recent trends<\/strong>: Bengals surrendered 48 points last week \u2192 defensive red flags; Denver has been in close losses but shown ability to lead late \u2014 that suggests Denver can exploit a turnover-prone Bengals team.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n SOS<\/strong>: Broncos have a middling\/easier schedule ranking; that slightly helps the \u201cpublic model\u201d outlook but is less decisive for a single-game line.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n My independent predicted final score = Broncos 28 \u2014 Bengals 17<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Rationale: baseline Pythagorean + small season stats suggested a Denver score in the mid-20s and Cincinnati in the high-teens; I nudge Denver a little higher (28) because of (A) Burrow absence and turnover risk and (B) Denver\u2019s home-field and pass-rush matchup advantages. This projects Denver by 11<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n My estimated win probability (subjective \/ model-informed): Broncos ~72% win chance<\/strong>; Bengals ~28%.<\/p>\n Averaged models:<\/strong> Broncos 26\u201319<\/strong> (Broncos by ~7).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n My prediction:<\/strong> Broncos 28\u201317<\/strong> (Broncos by 11).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Key difference:<\/strong> I project Denver to win by a larger margin (\u2248 10\u201311 points) because of the Burrow absence + Browning turnover risk<\/strong> and Denver\u2019s home defensive advantages. Several public models were already favoring Denver by about a touchdown; I lean more toward Denver covering and winning decisively.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n ESPN \/ AP game preview: details on Burrow\u2019s injury, Denver\/Bengals team trends and PF\/PA numbers. (Burrow out; Bengals turnover issues; Broncos home altitude\/home streak notes).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n CBS \/ SportsLine summary: SportsLine\u2019s public summary (model sim notes: projects a higher combined point total; model historically strong \u2014 paywalled full output). Useful confirmation that pro simulation models are favoring Denver.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Local and national previews (BleacherNation, SI, MileHighReport, FoxSports, AZCentral) \u2014 used to gather public model final-score picks \/ trends and consensus lean.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n 1) What the (public) models \/ outlets are saying (collected) I pulled publicly-posted final-score projections \/ model predictions from reputable outlets that publish model-driven picks<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[2620,2646,1400,1415,1399,422],"class_list":["post-29283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-example-3","tag-ai-analysis-for-nfl","tag-ai-nfl-models","tag-ai-nfl-predictions","tag-ai-trends-for-nfl-games","tag-betting-splits-system-for-nfl","tag-expert-nfl-picks","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/NFL-Cincinnati-Bengals-vs.-Denver-Broncos.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29283"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29305,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29283\/revisions\/29305"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n2) Average of these five final-score predictions<\/h3>\n
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\n3) My independent prediction (method + inputs)<\/h3>\n
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\n4) Compare averaged-model score vs my analysis<\/h3>\n
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\n5) News & injury checks used (sources)<\/h3>\n
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6) Final pick<\/h2>\n
My Pick: Consider\u00a0 Total Points UNDER 44.5 (WIN)<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"