{"id":29174,"date":"2025-09-23T14:15:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T14:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29174"},"modified":"2025-09-23T14:15:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T14:15:59","slug":"cubs-seek-home-edge-as-mets-try-to-break-road-skid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/cubs-seek-home-edge-as-mets-try-to-break-road-skid\/","title":{"rendered":"Cubs Seek Home Edge as Mets Try to Break Road Skid"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 data-start=\"218\" data-end=\"241\">Quick summary (TL;DR)<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"242\" data-end=\"889\">\n<li data-start=\"242\" data-end=\"483\">\n<p data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"483\"><strong data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"301\">Average of available model\/analyst score predictions:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"302\" data-end=\"325\">Cubs 4.0 \u2014 Mets 2.3<\/strong> \u2192 round to <strong data-start=\"337\" data-end=\"356\">Cubs 4 \u2014 Mets 2<\/strong> (models we could read: FoxSports, PicksAndParlays, PickDawgz + several analyst picks).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"484\" data-end=\"716\">\n<p data-start=\"486\" data-end=\"716\"><strong data-start=\"486\" data-end=\"545\">My independent prediction (with Pythagorean \/ context):<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"546\" data-end=\"565\">Cubs 4 \u2014 Mets 2<\/strong> (I get a lower-scoring Cubs win). Sources used for lineup\/pitchers and team run rates: ESPN \/ MLB \/ FanGraphs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"717\" data-end=\"889\">\n<p data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"889\"><strong data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"752\">Final betting recommendation:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"753\" data-end=\"808\">Take Chicago Cubs (moneyline) \u2014 also lean Under 7.5<\/strong>. Confidence: <strong data-start=\"822\" data-end=\"844\">moderate (~56\u201362%)<\/strong> given Horton vs Peterson and Cubs home edge.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"891\" data-end=\"894\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"896\" data-end=\"924\">Models \/ sources I checked<\/h1>\n<ol data-start=\"925\" data-end=\"2014\">\n<li data-start=\"925\" data-end=\"1139\">\n<p data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"1139\"><strong data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"984\">ESPN Matchup \/ probable pitchers \/ matchup predictor<\/strong> \u2014 lists <strong data-start=\"993\" data-end=\"1017\">David Peterson (NYM)<\/strong> vs <strong data-start=\"1021\" data-end=\"1042\">Cade Horton (CHC)<\/strong> and shows ESPN matchup win probabilities (Cubs favored).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1140\" data-end=\"1385\">\n<p data-start=\"1143\" data-end=\"1385\"><strong data-start=\"1143\" data-end=\"1157\">SportsLine<\/strong> \u2014 matchup page \/ model simulation (projected-score tool is behind subscriber wall but SportsLine\u2019s publicly visible lean and public\/money splits were used as a reputable model reference).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1386\" data-end=\"1532\">\n<p data-start=\"1389\" data-end=\"1532\"><strong data-start=\"1389\" data-end=\"1398\">BetQL<\/strong> \u2014 matchup preview and trends (used as a reputable AI\/stat model reference). (page available).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1533\" data-end=\"1704\">\n<p data-start=\"1536\" data-end=\"1704\"><strong data-start=\"1536\" data-end=\"1578\">FanGraphs \/ projections \/ team metrics<\/strong> \u2014 used for runs scored (RS\/G) and runs allowed (RA\/G) to run Pythagorean expectation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1705\" data-end=\"2014\">\n<p data-start=\"1708\" data-end=\"2014\"><strong data-start=\"1708\" data-end=\"1809\">Public analyst\/model score predictions (FoxSports, PicksAndParlays, PickDawgz, Docsports, others)<\/strong> \u2014 several public picks explicitly predicted scores (examples: FoxSports 4\u20133 Cubs; PicksAndParlays &amp; PickDawgz 4\u20132 Cubs). I averaged those available score predictions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-start=\"2016\" data-end=\"2251\">(Notes: SportsLine and some other top models hide exact projected-score simulations behind subscription paywalls \u2014 I used their public probabilities\/summary and multiple free expert projections to assemble an averaged projected score.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2253\" data-end=\"2256\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2258\" data-end=\"2298\">How I averaged model score predictions<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"2299\" data-end=\"2384\">The only explicitly <strong data-start=\"2319\" data-end=\"2330\">numeric<\/strong> score predictions I could fetch on public pages were:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2385\" data-end=\"2610\">\n<li data-start=\"2385\" data-end=\"2458\">\n<p data-start=\"2387\" data-end=\"2458\">FoxSports \u2192 <strong data-start=\"2399\" data-end=\"2417\">Cubs 4, Mets 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2459\" data-end=\"2538\">\n<p data-start=\"2461\" data-end=\"2538\">PicksAndParlays \u2192 <strong data-start=\"2479\" data-end=\"2497\">Cubs 4, Mets 2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2539\" data-end=\"2610\">\n<p data-start=\"2541\" data-end=\"2610\">PickDawgz \u2192 <strong data-start=\"2553\" data-end=\"2571\">Cubs 4, Mets 2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2612\" data-end=\"2634\">Average (simple mean):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2635\" data-end=\"2713\">\n<li data-start=\"2635\" data-end=\"2670\">\n<p data-start=\"2637\" data-end=\"2670\">Cubs: (4 + 4 + 4) \/ 3 = <strong data-start=\"2661\" data-end=\"2668\">4.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2671\" data-end=\"2713\">\n<p data-start=\"2673\" data-end=\"2713\">Mets: (3 + 2 + 2) \/ 3 = <strong data-start=\"2697\" data-end=\"2713\">2.333\u2026 \u2248 2.3<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2715\" data-end=\"2872\">So the <strong data-start=\"2722\" data-end=\"2771\">averaged model prediction \u2248 Cubs 4 \u2014 Mets 2.3<\/strong>, round to <strong data-start=\"2782\" data-end=\"2801\">Cubs 4 \u2014 Mets 2<\/strong> for a practical boxscore pick.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2874\" data-end=\"2877\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2879\" data-end=\"2919\">My independent analysis (step-by-step)<\/h1>\n<h3 data-start=\"2921\" data-end=\"2965\">1) Probable pitchers and matchup context<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2966\" data-end=\"3272\">\n<li data-start=\"2966\" data-end=\"3148\">\n<p data-start=\"2968\" data-end=\"3148\"><strong data-start=\"2968\" data-end=\"2977\">Cubs:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"2978\" data-end=\"2999\">Cade Horton (RHP)<\/strong> \u2014 very good season by ERA\/WHIP (listed 11\u20134, 2.66 ERA in the matchup page). <strong data-start=\"3076\" data-end=\"3099\">Home park (Wrigley)<\/strong> helps.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3149\" data-end=\"3272\">\n<p data-start=\"3151\" data-end=\"3272\"><strong data-start=\"3151\" data-end=\"3160\">Mets:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"3161\" data-end=\"3185\">David Peterson (LHP)<\/strong> \u2014 solid but not elite (listed ~9\u20136, 3.98 ERA).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3274\" data-end=\"3406\">Horton\u2019s numbers and home ballpark give the Cubs the pitching edge in this particular start.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3408\" data-end=\"3536\">2) Pythagorean expectation (I used team RS and RA per game from FanGraphs and the basic Pythagorean formula with exponent 2)<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3537\" data-end=\"3604\">I performed the arithmetic explicitly so you can follow each digit:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3606\" data-end=\"4133\">\n<li data-start=\"3606\" data-end=\"3868\">\n<p data-start=\"3608\" data-end=\"3653\"><strong data-start=\"3608\" data-end=\"3616\">Mets<\/strong>: RS\/G = <strong data-start=\"3625\" data-end=\"3633\">4.74<\/strong>, RA\/G = <strong data-start=\"3642\" data-end=\"3650\">4.38<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3656\" data-end=\"3868\">\n<li data-start=\"3656\" data-end=\"3691\">\n<p data-start=\"3658\" data-end=\"3691\">RS\u00b2 = 4.74 \u00d7 4.74 = <strong data-start=\"3678\" data-end=\"3689\">22.4676<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3694\" data-end=\"3729\">\n<p data-start=\"3696\" data-end=\"3729\">RA\u00b2 = 4.38 \u00d7 4.38 = <strong data-start=\"3716\" data-end=\"3727\">19.1844<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3732\" data-end=\"3868\">\n<p data-start=\"3734\" data-end=\"3868\">Pythagorean Win% = 22.4676 \u00f7 (22.4676 + 19.1844) = 22.4676 \u00f7 41.6520 = <strong data-start=\"3805\" data-end=\"3827\">0.539412\u2026 = 53.94%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3870\" data-end=\"4133\">\n<p data-start=\"3872\" data-end=\"3917\"><strong data-start=\"3872\" data-end=\"3880\">Cubs<\/strong>: RS\/G = <strong data-start=\"3889\" data-end=\"3897\">4.81<\/strong>, RA\/G = <strong data-start=\"3906\" data-end=\"3914\">4.01<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3920\" data-end=\"4133\">\n<li data-start=\"3920\" data-end=\"3955\">\n<p data-start=\"3922\" data-end=\"3955\">RS\u00b2 = 4.81 \u00d7 4.81 = <strong data-start=\"3942\" data-end=\"3953\">23.1361<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3958\" data-end=\"3993\">\n<p data-start=\"3960\" data-end=\"3993\">RA\u00b2 = 4.01 \u00d7 4.01 = <strong data-start=\"3980\" data-end=\"3991\">16.0801<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3996\" data-end=\"4133\">\n<p data-start=\"3998\" data-end=\"4133\">Pythagorean Win% = 23.1361 \u00f7 (23.1361 + 16.0801) = 23.1361 \u00f7 39.2162 = <strong data-start=\"4069\" data-end=\"4092\">0.5899628\u2026 = 58.99%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4135\" data-end=\"4421\">Interpretation: the Pythagorean check shows the <strong data-start=\"4183\" data-end=\"4239\">Cubs are the stronger team by runs-based expectation<\/strong> (roughly a ~59% quality vs ~54% for Mets ignoring matchup\/pitcher). That aligns with Cubs being the favorite in most model\/oddsmaker outputs.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4423\" data-end=\"4475\">3) Strength of schedule, rest, and recent trends<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"4476\" data-end=\"4856\">\n<li data-start=\"4476\" data-end=\"4856\">\n<p data-start=\"4478\" data-end=\"4856\">FanGraphs \/ TeamRankings trend pages show Cubs have a <strong data-start=\"4532\" data-end=\"4557\">better run prevention<\/strong> (lower RA\/G) and solid home record (46\u201329 at home per ESPN page), while Mets have struggled on the road and are slipping in form (Mets 4\u20136 last 10; recent road woes noted across preview coverage). Those trends favor the Cubs in a neutral-to-low scoring game.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"4858\" data-end=\"4893\">4) Injury \/ roster news checked<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"4894\" data-end=\"5238\">\n<li data-start=\"4894\" data-end=\"5238\">\n<p data-start=\"4896\" data-end=\"5238\">MLB\/ESPN injury pages mention <strong data-start=\"4926\" data-end=\"4943\">Tyrone Taylor<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"4948\" data-end=\"4964\">Joey Meneses<\/strong> statuses \u2014 some activations\/IL timing around Sept. 23 that could slightly affect bench depth\/lineup. No headline injury to a core starter for either team was listed that removed a major bat tonight. (I checked ESPN\/MLB injury pages).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"5240\" data-end=\"5243\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5245\" data-end=\"5282\">My predicted final score (explicit)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"5283\" data-end=\"5320\"><strong data-start=\"5283\" data-end=\"5320\">Chicago Cubs 4 \u2014 New York Mets 2.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5322\" data-end=\"5594\">Rationale: Cade Horton\u2019s strong season + Cubs home environment + Cubs better run prevention (FanGraphs) + multiple public model\/analyst picks clustering at <strong data-start=\"5478\" data-end=\"5496\">Cubs 4\u20132 \/ 4\u20133<\/strong>. The Pythagorean expectation supports the Cubs advantage.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"5596\" data-end=\"5599\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5601\" data-end=\"5637\">Betting recommendation (practical)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"5894\" data-end=\"6276\"><strong data-start=\"5894\" data-end=\"5922\">Pick:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"5923\" data-end=\"5941\">Under 7.5 runs<\/strong> \u2014 I lean Under because Horton is sharp and Peterson can limit big innings; models and several analysts also favor a lower-scoring game. If you prefer spread play, <strong data-start=\"6105\" data-end=\"6118\">Cubs -1.5<\/strong> is riskier (needs them to win by 2) but some markets show Mets as the +1.5 team on the run line (market quirks vary).<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"6278\" data-end=\"6281\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"6283\" data-end=\"6328\">How my pick compares to the averaged models<\/h1>\n<h2>My PICK: Total Points UNDER 7.5<\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quick summary (TL;DR) Average of available model\/analyst score predictions: Cubs 4.0 \u2014 Mets 2.3 \u2192 round to Cubs 4 \u2014 Mets 2 (models we could<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29175,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[1489,4082,1107,1121,1106,1205,952,2894],"class_list":["post-29174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlbanalysis","tag-ai-mlb-prediction","tag-ai-prediction-mlb","tag-ai-prediction-tool-mlb-picks","tag-ai-predictions-mlb-tonight","tag-mlb-ai-predictions-today","tag-mlb-analysis","tag-mlb-betting-analytics","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/MLB-New-York-Mets-vs.-Chicago-Cubs.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29174"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29177,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29174\/revisions\/29177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}