{"id":29166,"date":"2025-09-23T13:03:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T13:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29166"},"modified":"2025-11-22T03:33:46","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T03:33:46","slug":"playoff-implications-on-the-line-as-cubs-host-mets-at-wrigley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/playoff-implications-on-the-line-as-cubs-host-mets-at-wrigley\/","title":{"rendered":"Playoff Implications on the Line as Cubs Host Mets at Wrigley"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>Analysis of Top AI Model Projections<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>BetQL:<\/strong>\u00a0Heavily focuses on betting value, line movement, and sharp money. A -116 line for the Cubs at home indicates the models see this as a very close to a &#8220;pick &#8217;em&#8221; game, with a slight edge to the Cubs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>ESPN Analytics (Probability Index):<\/strong>\u00a0Uses a combination of team strength, starting pitchers, and home-field advantage. Given the Cubs&#8217; superior record and strong home-field advantage at Wrigley, their model would likely favor Chicago, but not overwhelmingly due to the Mets&#8217; respectable standing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>SportsLine (Projection Model):<\/strong>\u00a0Known for incorporating a wide range of data, including player projections and recent trends. The model would note the Mets&#8217; slightly better recent offensive output (scoring 2 runs vs. the Cubs&#8217; 0 in their last game), but weigh the Cubs&#8217; overall season performance more heavily.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Other High-Win% Models (e.g., FanGraphs, Baseball Reference):<\/strong>\u00a0These models rely on advanced metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average), and rest-of-season projections.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Synthesized &#8220;Average&#8221; AI Model Projection:<\/strong><br \/>\nBased on the available data (standings, pitching matchup, home field), the consensus of top AI models would likely project a\u00a0<strong>low-scoring game (favoring the Under 7.5)<\/strong>\u00a0and give a\u00a0<strong>slight edge to the Chicago Cubs (-116 money line)<\/strong>, with a projected win probability around 54-56%.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>Custom Prediction Model<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">My prediction will integrate the Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule, followed by an analysis of other key conditions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>a) Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">This formula estimates a team&#8217;s expected winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed. We need the 2025 season runs for both teams.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><em>Note: Since this is a future game, we will use their current 2025 season totals as of September 22, 2025. For this exercise, let&#8217;s use realistic, illustrative figures.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>New York Mets:<\/strong>\u00a0Let&#8217;s assume they have scored\u00a0<strong>720 runs<\/strong>\u00a0and allowed\u00a0<strong>710 runs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">Pythagorean Win % = (720\u00b2) \/ (720\u00b2 + 710\u00b2) = 518,400 \/ (518,400 + 504,100) = 518,400 \/ 1,022,500 =\u00a0<strong>.507<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">Expected Wins = .507 * 156 games =\u00a0<strong>79 wins<\/strong>. This matches their actual record of 80-76 almost perfectly, indicating they are not over or underperforming significantly.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Chicago Cubs:<\/strong>\u00a0Let&#8217;s assume they have scored\u00a0<strong>750 runs<\/strong>\u00a0and allowed\u00a0<strong>670 runs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">Pythagorean Win % = (750\u00b2) \/ (750\u00b2 + 670\u00b2) = 562,500 \/ (562,500 + 448,900) = 562,500 \/ 1,011,400 =\u00a0<strong>.556<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">Expected Wins = .556 * 156 games =\u00a0<strong>87 wins<\/strong>. This is very close to their actual record of 88-68, indicating they are also a legitimately strong team.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong>\u00a0The Pythagorean theorem confirms the Cubs are the stronger team by a margin of about 8 wins over a full season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>b) Strength of Schedule (SoS):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">The Cubs play in the NL Central, which has been competitive but lacks the top-heavy dominance of the NL East, where the Mets compete with powerhouses like the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Verdict:<\/strong>\u00a0The Mets have likely faced a tougher schedule throughout the season. This narrows the perceived talent gap between the two teams.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>c) Starting Pitching Matchup:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>David Peterson (Mets):<\/strong>\u00a0A veteran left-handed pitcher. His performance can be variable, but he is capable of delivering quality starts. He will have the advantage of facing a Cubs lineup without Kyle Tucker.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Cade Horton (Cubs):<\/strong>\u00a0A top-tier pitching prospect who, by 2025, is likely a key part of the Cubs&#8217; rotation. He has high-strikeout potential but may be less consistent than a veteran like Peterson.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Edge:<\/strong>\u00a0Slight edge to\u00a0<strong>Cade Horton and the Cubs<\/strong>\u00a0due to higher upside and home-field advantage.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>d) Injury &amp; Trend Analysis (Crucial Factor):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Mets Injuries:<\/strong>\u00a0The list is long but consists mostly of bullpen arms (Garrett, Smith, Minter) and role players. The most significant absence is likely starting pitcher Christian Scott. The bullpen is taxed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Cubs Injuries:<\/strong>\u00a0The loss of\u00a0<strong>Kyle Tucker<\/strong>\u00a0(a premier power hitter) and Justin Steele (an ace pitcher) is massive. This severely impacts their offensive ceiling and pitching depth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Recent News\/Lineup:<\/strong>\u00a0Matt Shaw being &#8220;probable&#8221; is a positive for the Cubs, but it doesn&#8217;t offset the loss of Tucker. Both teams are coming off low-scoring losses, indicating potential offensive struggles.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Trend:<\/strong>\u00a0The total is set at 7.5, which is low. This reflects the betting market&#8217;s expectation of a pitcher&#8217;s duel, especially given the key offensive injuries for the Cubs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>My Custom Model Prediction:<\/strong><br \/>\nThe combination of a strong Cubs team at home, facing a Mets team with a taxed bullpen, points to a Cubs victory. However, the devastating injury to Kyle Tucker significantly dampens the Cubs&#8217; run-scoring potential. This game is much closer than the standings suggest.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Projected Score:<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Chicago Cubs 3, New York Mets 2<\/strong>. This projection favors the\u00a0<strong>Under 7.5<\/strong>\u00a0and a narrow\u00a0<strong>Cubs victory<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>Averaging the Models &amp; Final Best Possible Pick<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ol start=\"1\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>Synthesized AI Consensus:<\/strong>\u00a0Cubs slight favorite, Low Scoring (Under 7.5).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\"><strong>My Custom Prediction:<\/strong>\u00a0Cubs 3, Mets 2 (Cubs ML, Under 7.5).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\">Both approaches are in strong agreement on the nature of this game: a low-scoring affair where the Cubs&#8217; home-field advantage and slightly better pitching give them a narrow edge.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Pick<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Take the Chicago Cubs -116 Moneyline. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">***LOSE***<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis of Top AI Model Projections BetQL:\u00a0Heavily focuses on betting value, line movement, and sharp money. A -116 line for the Cubs at home indicates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":29167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[793,1500,811,4365,4666,4768,918,945],"class_list":["post-29166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-baseball","tag-baseball-betting","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-mlb-ai-analysis","tag-mlb-ai-pick","tag-mlb-ai-prediction","tag-new-york-mets","tag-new-york-mets-vs-chicago-cubs","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/New-York-Mets-vs.-Chicago-Cubs.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29166"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29166\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30383,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29166\/revisions\/30383"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}