{"id":29040,"date":"2025-09-17T08:26:51","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T08:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=29040"},"modified":"2025-09-18T14:44:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T14:44:23","slug":"numbers-that-tell-the-story-mariners-vs-royals-at-kauffman-stadium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/numbers-that-tell-the-story-mariners-vs-royals-at-kauffman-stadium\/","title":{"rendered":"Numbers That Tell the Story: Mariners vs. Royals at Kauffman Stadium"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 data-start=\"415\" data-end=\"474\">1) What the top outlets \/ models said (what I could find)<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"475\" data-end=\"1434\">\n<li data-start=\"475\" data-end=\"596\">\n<p data-start=\"477\" data-end=\"596\"><strong data-start=\"477\" data-end=\"502\">FOX Sports (pre-game)<\/strong> \u2014 numeric score prediction: <strong data-start=\"531\" data-end=\"555\">Royals 6, Mariners 5<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"597\" data-end=\"741\">\n<p data-start=\"599\" data-end=\"741\"><strong data-start=\"599\" data-end=\"647\">PicksAndParlays \/ Picks &amp; Parlays (pre-game)<\/strong> \u2014 numeric score prediction: <strong data-start=\"676\" data-end=\"700\">Mariners 7, Royals 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"889\">\n<p data-start=\"744\" data-end=\"889\"><strong data-start=\"744\" data-end=\"786\">FanDuel (using numberFire projections)<\/strong> \u2014 <strong data-start=\"789\" data-end=\"822\">Mariners win probability ~51%<\/strong> (no explicit final score).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"890\" data-end=\"1204\">\n<p data-start=\"892\" data-end=\"1204\"><strong data-start=\"892\" data-end=\"906\">SportsLine<\/strong> \u2014 had simulation tools &amp; injury list visible but its subscriber-only model projections were behind a paywall (no free numeric final score available). SportsLine did show recent injury flags including <strong data-start=\"1107\" data-end=\"1144\">Cole Ragans (shoulder IL earlier)<\/strong> in their team news.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1205\" data-end=\"1434\">\n<p data-start=\"1207\" data-end=\"1434\"><strong data-start=\"1207\" data-end=\"1246\">Action Network \/ The Action Network<\/strong> \u2014 detailed matchup, weather, public betting percentages and starting pitcher notes but no single explicit final-score number available to the public.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1436\" data-end=\"1909\"><strong data-start=\"1436\" data-end=\"1471\">Important note on availability:<\/strong> many of the \u201ctop\u201d model platforms (SportsLine, BetQL, some proprietary model pages) either hide full numeric final-score simulations behind subscriptions or provide only win probabilities. I collected all public numeric predictions I could find (FOX Sports &amp; PicksAndParlays gave explicit scores) plus the publicly available win probabilities \/ projections from FanDuel\/numberFire and ActionNetwork.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1911\" data-end=\"1914\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"1916\" data-end=\"1989\">2) Averaged model final-score (from explicit numeric predictions found)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"1990\" data-end=\"2084\">Only <strong data-start=\"1995\" data-end=\"2002\">two<\/strong> explicit numeric score predictions were publicly accessible without subscription:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2085\" data-end=\"2165\">\n<li data-start=\"2085\" data-end=\"2123\">\n<p data-start=\"2087\" data-end=\"2123\">FOX Sports \u2192 Royals 6 \u2014 Mariners 5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2124\" data-end=\"2165\">\n<p data-start=\"2126\" data-end=\"2165\">PicksAndParlays \u2192 Mariners 7 \u2014 Royals 3<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2167\" data-end=\"2214\">Average those two predictions (team by team):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2215\" data-end=\"2296\">\n<li data-start=\"2215\" data-end=\"2256\">\n<p data-start=\"2217\" data-end=\"2256\">Mariners runs = (5 + 7) \/ 2 = <strong data-start=\"2247\" data-end=\"2254\">6.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2257\" data-end=\"2296\">\n<p data-start=\"2259\" data-end=\"2296\">Royals runs = (6 + 3) \/ 2 = <strong data-start=\"2289\" data-end=\"2296\">4.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2298\" data-end=\"2546\"><strong data-start=\"2298\" data-end=\"2339\">Averaged model predicted final score:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"2340\" data-end=\"2366\">Mariners 6 \u2014 Royals 4.<\/strong> (This is a simple mean of the explicit numeric predictions I found; other top models provided win probabilities rather than a numeric score.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2548\" data-end=\"2551\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"2553\" data-end=\"2599\">3) My independent prediction (method + math)<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"2600\" data-end=\"2716\">I combined <strong data-start=\"2611\" data-end=\"2638\">Pythagorean expectation<\/strong>, probable starters \/ recent form, SOS\/season context, and injury\/news checks.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2718\" data-end=\"2773\"><strong data-start=\"2718\" data-end=\"2771\">Data used (season totals from ESPN matchup page):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2774\" data-end=\"2879\">\n<li data-start=\"2774\" data-end=\"2879\">\n<p data-start=\"2776\" data-end=\"2879\">Mariners runs scored (RS) = <strong data-start=\"2804\" data-end=\"2811\">687<\/strong>; runs allowed (RA) = <strong data-start=\"2833\" data-end=\"2840\">559<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2933\"><strong data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2911\">Pythagorean expected win %<\/strong> (using exponent 2):<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2934\" data-end=\"3206\">\n<li data-start=\"2934\" data-end=\"3206\">\n<p data-start=\"2936\" data-end=\"3206\">Win % = RS\u00b2 \/ (RS\u00b2 + RA\u00b2)<br data-start=\"2961\" data-end=\"2964\" \/>= 687\u00b2 \/ (687\u00b2 + 559\u00b2)<br data-start=\"2988\" data-end=\"2991\" \/>= 471,969 \/ (471,969 + 312,481) \u2248 0.6017 \u2192 <strong data-start=\"3036\" data-end=\"3064\">~60.2% expected win rate<\/strong> for Seattle (season-level Pythagorean). (I calculated this directly from the season RS\/RA cited above.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3208\" data-end=\"3250\"><strong data-start=\"3208\" data-end=\"3248\">Starting pitchers &amp; matchup context:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3251\" data-end=\"3790\">\n<li data-start=\"3251\" data-end=\"3399\">\n<p data-start=\"3253\" data-end=\"3399\"><strong data-start=\"3253\" data-end=\"3282\">Probable Seattle starter:<\/strong> <em data-start=\"3283\" data-end=\"3297\">Bryce Miller<\/em> \u2014 4\u20135, 5.59 ERA this season (shows volatility; not dominant).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3400\" data-end=\"3790\">\n<p data-start=\"3402\" data-end=\"3790\"><strong data-start=\"3402\" data-end=\"3435\">Probable Kansas City starter:<\/strong> <em data-start=\"3436\" data-end=\"3449\">Cole Ragans<\/em> \u2014 2\u20133, 5.18 ERA; had shoulder issues earlier in season per SportsLine injury notes (possible limited recent work). SportsLine also showed Ragans with a shoulder IL history. Both starting pitchers have had inconsistent seasons; that typically nudges expectation toward <strong data-start=\"3718\" data-end=\"3749\">more offense \/ higher total<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3792\" data-end=\"3840\"><strong data-start=\"3792\" data-end=\"3840\">Recent trends &amp; external factors (pre-game):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3841\" data-end=\"4263\">\n<li data-start=\"3841\" data-end=\"4263\">\n<p data-start=\"3843\" data-end=\"4263\">Mariners were on a hot streak coming into the series (hot offense; had been scoring heavily). Many outlets flagged Mariners\u2019 recent offensive surge and the matchup value for Seattle. FanDuel\/numberFire projected Mariners slight edge (\u224851% win chance). Weather at Kauffman showed warm with some rain chance but not severe (Action Network weather noted ~43% chance of rain pregame).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4265\" data-end=\"4306\"><strong data-start=\"4265\" data-end=\"4304\">My synthesis (pre-game prediction):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4896\">\n<li data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4896\">\n<p data-start=\"4309\" data-end=\"4896\">Pythagorean season-level advantage (~60% win expectation) + Mariners\u2019 hot offensive form + Ragans uncertainty \u2192 lean to <strong data-start=\"4429\" data-end=\"4440\">Seattle<\/strong>. Given both starters\u2019 ERAs, I expect <strong data-start=\"4478\" data-end=\"4512\">a run total above the 8.5 line<\/strong> and a Mariners win close to the averaged model but with Seattle scoring more: <strong data-start=\"4591\" data-end=\"4653\">my pregame final score prediction = <em data-start=\"4629\" data-end=\"4651\">Mariners 6, Royals 4<\/em><\/strong> (mirrors the averaged numeric prediction above, but reached independently via Pythagorean + matchup context + injuries\/trends). Numeric confidence: <strong data-start=\"4802\" data-end=\"4814\">moderate<\/strong> \u2014 Seattle to win (~55\u201360% implied confidence) and total <strong data-start=\"4871\" data-end=\"4883\">Over 8.5<\/strong> recommended.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4898\" data-end=\"5037\">(Again: that was my pregame synthesis. Sources used for season RS\/RA and starters are cited above.)<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"5039\" data-end=\"5042\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5044\" data-end=\"5108\">4) News &amp; injuries I cross-checked (pre-game and what changed)<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"5109\" data-end=\"5721\">\n<li data-start=\"5109\" data-end=\"5412\">\n<p data-start=\"5111\" data-end=\"5412\"><strong data-start=\"5111\" data-end=\"5137\">SportsLine injury feed<\/strong> flagged Cole Ragans had shoulder IL earlier in season and listed a few Royals reliever concerns; also listed some Mariners bullpen\/injury notes. I treated Ragans\u2019 recent workload and prior shoulder issue as a negative factor for KC.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5413\" data-end=\"5721\">\n<p data-start=\"5415\" data-end=\"5721\"><strong data-start=\"5415\" data-end=\"5443\">Action Network &amp; FanDuel<\/strong> posted probable starters, public betting splits (Action Network showed heavy public money and Over leaning) and weather (Kauffman ~80\u00b0F with modest rain chance). Those sources supported an Over lean and the Mariners pick from numberFire.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"5723\" data-end=\"5726\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"5728\" data-end=\"5770\">5) Final pick vs. what actually happened<\/h1>\n<ul data-start=\"5771\" data-end=\"6056\">\n<li data-start=\"5771\" data-end=\"5891\">\n<p data-start=\"5773\" data-end=\"5891\"><strong data-start=\"5773\" data-end=\"5799\">My pregame final pick:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"5800\" data-end=\"5836\">Mariners to win, 6\u20134 (Over 8.5).<\/strong> (I called Seattle to win and expected a high total.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5892\" data-end=\"6056\">\n<p data-start=\"5894\" data-end=\"6056\"><strong data-start=\"5894\" data-end=\"5933\">Averaged public numeric prediction:<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"5934\" data-end=\"5960\">Mariners 6 \u2014 Royals 4.<\/strong> (mean of FOX &amp; PicksAndParlays numeric scores I found).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"6058\" data-end=\"6577\"><strong data-start=\"6058\" data-end=\"6106\">Actual final result (game recap \/ postgame):<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"6107\" data-end=\"6154\">Seattle Mariners 12 \u2014 Kansas City Royals 5.<\/strong> Mariners big offensive night: Cal Raleigh hit 2 homers (55th &amp; 56th), Dominic Canzone went 5-for-5 with three homers and five RBI; Mariners extended a winning streak \u2014 final score reported by Reuters &amp; ESPN. That is <strong data-start=\"6371\" data-end=\"6397\">Mariners win, Over 8.5<\/strong> \u2014 same direction as my pick and the averaged prediction, but the actual Mariners scoring was higher than either pregame numeric projection.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"6849\" data-end=\"6852\" \/>\n<h1 data-start=\"6854\" data-end=\"6891\">6) Bottom line \/ practical takeaway<\/h1>\n<h2 data-start=\"6894\" data-end=\"7600\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">PICK: Seattle Mariners moneyline -103 (LOSE)<\/span><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1) What the top outlets \/ models said (what I could find) FOX Sports (pre-game) \u2014 numeric score prediction: Royals 6, Mariners 5. PicksAndParlays \/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29041,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[1489,4082,1107,1121,1106,1205,952,2894],"class_list":["post-29040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlbanalysis","tag-ai-mlb-prediction","tag-ai-prediction-mlb","tag-ai-prediction-tool-mlb-picks","tag-ai-predictions-mlb-tonight","tag-mlb-ai-predictions-today","tag-mlb-analysis","tag-mlb-betting-analytics","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/MLB-Seattle-Mariners-vs.-Kansas-City-Royals.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29040"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29087,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29040\/revisions\/29087"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}