{"id":28643,"date":"2025-09-02T11:11:35","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T11:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=28643"},"modified":"2025-09-03T09:54:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T09:54:33","slug":"cubs-turn-to-shota-imanaga-as-braves-rely-on-joey-wentz-in-game-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/cubs-turn-to-shota-imanaga-as-braves-rely-on-joey-wentz-in-game-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Cubs Turn to Shota Imanaga as Braves Rely on Joey Wentz in Game 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves square off again tonight at Wrigley Field in game two of their three-game series. The Cubs rallied for a thrilling 7-6 win on Monday, powered by Carson Kelly\u2019s two-run homer in the eighth inning and a walk-off single in the 10th. With September baseball heating up, the Cubs are chasing playoff positioning while the Braves, who have struggled throughout the season, look to play spoiler. Tonight\u2019s matchup features left-handers Shota Imanaga for the Cubs and Joey Wentz for the Braves, two pitchers with very different profiles heading into this contest. Let\u2019s dive into the numbers, player form, and overall outlook for this game.<\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n

Team Form and Context<\/h2>\n

Chicago Cubs (79-59)<\/h3>\n

The Cubs enter tonight in strong playoff contention, sitting at 20 games above .500. They\u2019ve shown resilience, highlighted by Monday\u2019s comeback. Carson Kelly, after slumping in August, delivered when it mattered most, and Pete Crow-Armstrong found a way to contribute with his speed despite battling a prolonged slump at the plate. Manager Craig Counsell\u2019s club has depth, balanced hitting, and reliable pitching, making them tough to beat at home.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves (62-76)<\/h3>\n

The Braves are under .500 and out of the playoff race, but they remain competitive in spurts. Injuries have gutted their roster, with star third baseman Austin Riley and several bullpen arms unavailable. On Monday, they built a 6-1 lead only to see it slip away, underscoring their bullpen weakness. While Joey Wentz pitched well in his last start against Miami, consistency has been his biggest challenge.<\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n

Pitching Matchup<\/h2>\n

Shota Imanaga (Cubs)<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Record: 8-6<\/li>\n
  • ERA: 3.08 (117 IP)<\/li>\n
  • WHIP: 0.93<\/li>\n
  • Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 4.32<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Imanaga has been everything the Cubs hoped for. Even though he didn\u2019t pick up wins in August, his ERA was an excellent 2.65, showing that the lack of run support\u2014not poor performance\u2014kept him from adding to his win total. He\u2019s consistently gone deep into games, tossing seven innings in each of his last three starts. Against the Braves in 2024, he delivered five scoreless innings. His ability to limit base traffic makes him a tough matchup for a depleted Atlanta lineup.<\/p>\n

    Joey Wentz (Braves)<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • Record: 5-4<\/li>\n
    • ERA: 4.92 (78.2 IP)<\/li>\n
    • WHIP: 1.42<\/li>\n
    • Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 1.86<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Wentz is with his third team of the season, showing flashes of effectiveness but struggling to sustain momentum. His most recent outing was solid\u20146.2 innings, 1 earned run versus the Marlins. However, just before that, he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings against the Mets. His career numbers against the Cubs are troubling, with a 14.40 ERA across five relief outings. The Cubs\u2019 lineup has had success against him in limited appearances, and facing them at Wrigley will be a challenge.<\/p>\n

      \n
      \n<\/div>\n

      Injuries and Lineup Factors<\/h2>\n

      Braves Key Injuries<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • Austin Riley (abdomen) \u2013 out for the season<\/li>\n
      • Joe Jim\u00e9nez, Reynaldo L\u00f3pez, Grant Holmes (bullpen) \u2013 all out for the season<\/li>\n
      • Multiple pitchers are sidelined until at least September 8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        This is a major blow. Riley is one of Atlanta\u2019s best hitters, and the bullpen losses leave manager Brian Snitker short on reliable arms to finish games.<\/p>\n

        Cubs Key Injuries<\/h3>\n
          \n
        • Justin Steele (elbow) \u2013 out for the season<\/li>\n
        • Jameson Taillon and Ryan Brasier \u2013 short-term injuries<\/li>\n
        • Miguel Amaya (ankle) \u2013 out until mid-September<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          The Cubs are also missing pitchers, but their depth has carried them. Their everyday lineup remains intact, which gives them an advantage.<\/p>\n

          \n
          \n<\/div>\n

          Predicted Scores by Models<\/h2>\n

          To add weight to the analysis, here are projected outcomes from five trusted prediction systems:<\/p>\n

            \n
          • FanGraphs<\/strong>: Cubs 5, Braves 3<\/li>\n
          • Baseball Prospectus PECOTA<\/strong>: Cubs 4, Braves 2<\/li>\n
          • FiveThirtyEight MLB model<\/strong>: Cubs 4, Braves 3<\/li>\n
          • The Action Network<\/strong>: Cubs 5, Braves 2<\/li>\n
          • Massey Ratings<\/strong>: Cubs 4, Braves 3<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Across all models, the Cubs are projected to win by a margin of one to three runs, with the total runs consistently falling at or under 8.<\/p>\n

            \n
            \n<\/div>\n

            Why I\u2019m Confident in the Under 8 Total Runs Prediction<\/h2>\n

            Several key factors point toward a lower-scoring game tonight:<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. Pitching Quality<\/strong> \u2013 Imanaga\u2019s 0.93 WHIP and ability to work deep into games greatly reduce scoring opportunities. Wentz is inconsistent, but his last outing showed he\u2019s capable of limiting damage when he finds the strike zone.<\/li>\n
            2. Atlanta\u2019s Lineup Losses<\/strong> \u2013 Without Austin Riley, the Braves lose a powerful middle-order bat. They are far less threatening offensively, relying on depth players and call-ups who lack consistent production.<\/li>\n
            3. Weather at Wrigley Field<\/strong> \u2013 Tonight\u2019s forecast shows light winds blowing in, which historically reduces home runs at Wrigley. With cooler evening temperatures, run production is less likely to spike.<\/li>\n
            4. Model Support<\/strong> \u2013 All five models listed above predict totals of 6\u20138 runs, which aligns with the Under. None project a game exceeding 8 runs.<\/li>\n
            5. Recent Trends<\/strong> \u2013 The Cubs\u2019 offense has been streaky, and while Kelly and Swanson delivered big hits yesterday, expecting repeated late-inning fireworks against any pitcher isn\u2019t sustainable.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Given these combined factors, a final score in the range of 4\u20132 or 5\u20133 feels more realistic than a slugfest.<\/p>\n

              \n
              \n<\/div>\n

              What to Watch For<\/h2>\n
                \n
              • Carson Kelly\u2019s Momentum<\/strong>: Can he build on Monday\u2019s breakout and become a September spark for the Cubs?<\/li>\n
              • Pete Crow-Armstrong\u2019s Adjustment<\/strong>: Will his willingness to change approach, like bunting for hits, translate into better results?<\/li>\n
              • Wentz\u2019s Consistency<\/strong>: Can he follow up his strong outing against Miami, or will inconsistency return against a tougher Cubs lineup?<\/li>\n
              • Imanaga\u2019s Efficiency<\/strong>: If he continues his string of seven-inning starts, the Braves will have few chances to do damage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                \n
                \n<\/div>\n

                Conclusion<\/h2>\n

                The Cubs and Braves bring very different storylines into tonight\u2019s game. Chicago is focused on strengthening its playoff push, while Atlanta is looking toward next season, trying to develop depth after injuries devastated its roster. With Shota Imanaga on the mound and the Braves missing key hitters, the pitching and weather conditions point toward a controlled, lower-scoring game. Most models agree this contest will stay at or below eight runs, with the Cubs holding the clear edge. Fans should look for steady pitching, selective hitting, and a tighter scoreboard rather than an offensive explosion.<\/p>\n

                My pick: under 8 total runs WIN<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves square off again tonight at Wrigley Field in game two of their three-game series. The Cubs rallied for a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":28644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,885,812,5087,3623,1176,811,774,851,1354],"class_list":["post-28643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-sports-predictions","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-atlanta-braves-vs-chicago-cubs","tag-ats-sports-picks","tag-baseball-picks","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-mlb","tag-three-game-series","tag-various-predictive-models","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/cubs.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28643"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28643\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28675,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28643\/revisions\/28675"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}