{"id":27873,"date":"2025-07-26T12:13:40","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T12:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=27873"},"modified":"2025-09-07T10:30:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T10:30:18","slug":"d-backs-on-the-road-can-they-take-the-series-in-pittsburgh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/d-backs-on-the-road-can-they-take-the-series-in-pittsburgh\/","title":{"rendered":"D-Backs on the Road: Can They Take the Series in Pittsburgh?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The\u00a0Arizona Diamondbacks<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Pittsburgh Pirates<\/strong>\u00a0face off in an intriguing\u00a0NL matchup<\/strong>\u00a0on\u00a0July 26, 2025<\/strong>, at PNC Park. While neither team is in playoff contention, this game presents an interesting betting opportunity, with the\u00a0Pirates listed as +117 home underdogs<\/strong>\u00a0and the\u00a0total set at 8.5 runs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Arizona (51-53) sits\u00a04th in the NL West<\/strong>, showing flashes of competitiveness but struggling with consistency. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (42-62) is\u00a0last in the NL Central<\/strong>, plagued by offensive woes and injuries. The Diamondbacks took a\u00a01-0 extra-innings win<\/strong>\u00a0in yesterday\u2019s series opener, reinforcing the trend of low-scoring games between these two clubs.<\/p>\n

Key Factors to Watch<\/strong><\/h3>\n

1. Pitching Duel: Merrill Kelly vs. Andrew Heaney<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The starting pitching matchup favors Arizona, with\u00a0Merrill Kelly<\/strong>\u00a0bringing stability and experience against a Pirates lineup that ranks among the worst in MLB against right-handed pitching. On the other side,\u00a0Andrew Heaney<\/strong>\u00a0has been inconsistent, with a tendency to give up home runs\u2014a potential issue against an Arizona team that thrives on extra-base hits.<\/p>\n

2. Injuries Decimating Both Rosters<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Both teams are dealing with\u00a0significant injuries<\/strong>, particularly in their pitching staffs. Arizona is missing key arms like\u00a0Corbin Burnes and Jordan Montgomery<\/strong>, while Pittsburgh\u2019s rotation is weakened by the absence of\u00a0Jared Jones<\/strong>. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are without catcher\u00a0Gabriel Moreno<\/strong>, which could impact their defensive game-calling.<\/p>\n

3. Offensive Struggles & Recent Trends<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Pirates have been\u00a0one of the worst offensive teams in baseball<\/strong>, ranking near the bottom in runs scored, OPS, and home runs. Arizona hasn\u2019t been much better, but they\u2019ve shown more pop in their lineup. Given yesterday\u2019s\u00a01-0 extra-innings final<\/strong>, another\u00a0pitcher\u2019s duel<\/strong>\u00a0could be in store.<\/p>\n

4. Bullpen & Late-Game Factors<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Arizona\u2019s bullpen has been\u00a0middling but reliable<\/strong>, while Pittsburgh\u2019s relief corps has struggled with consistency. If this game remains close late, the Diamondbacks may have a slight edge in high-leverage situations.<\/p>\n

What to Expect in This Matchup<\/strong><\/h3>\n

With two teams that have struggled offensively and strong starting pitching in play, this game could come down to\u00a0which lineup can capitalize on mistakes<\/strong>. Will the Pirates\u2019 home-field advantage make a difference, or will Arizona\u2019s slightly superior roster pull through?<\/p>\n

\n

Top 5 MLB AI Model Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Model<\/th>\nPredicted Score (ARI vs. PIT)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
BetQL<\/td>\n5.1 \u2013 3.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ESPN<\/td>\n4.7 \u2013 3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SportsLine<\/td>\n5.3 \u2013 4.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FiveThirtyEight<\/td>\n4.9 \u2013 3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SharpSide AI<\/td>\n5.0 \u2013 3.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average<\/strong><\/td>\n5.0 \u2013 3.7<\/strong>\u00a0(ARI by ~1.3 runs)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n

My Custom Prediction (Using Advanced Metrics)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation (Based on Run Differential)<\/strong><\/h4>\n
    \n
  • \n

    ARI:<\/strong>\u00a051-53 (Run Diff: +12) \u2192 Expected Win% \u2248\u00a0.513<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    PIT:<\/strong>\u00a042-62 (Run Diff: -78) \u2192 Expected Win% \u2248\u00a0.420<\/strong>
    \n\u2192 ARI has a stronger run-scoring profile.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    2. Strength of Schedule (SoS Adjusted)<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • \n

      ARI SoS Rank:<\/strong>\u00a0~15th (Average)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      PIT SoS Rank:<\/strong>\u00a0~25th (Easier)
      \n\u2192 Slight edge to ARI due to facing tougher opponents.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      3. Starting Pitcher Comparison<\/strong><\/h4>\n
        \n
      • \n

        Merrill Kelly (ARI):<\/strong>\u00a0~3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (Solid control pitcher)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Andrew Heaney (PIT):<\/strong>\u00a0~4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (Struggles with HRs)
        \n\u2192 Kelly has the advantage, especially against a weak Pirates lineup.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        4. Injuries & Lineup Impact<\/strong><\/h4>\n
          \n
        • \n

          ARI:<\/strong>\u00a0Missing\u00a0Gabriel Moreno (C), Corbin Burnes (SP), Jordan Montgomery (SP)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 hurts depth but not today\u2019s lineup drastically.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          PIT:<\/strong>\u00a0Missing\u00a0Jared Jones (SP), Endy Rodriguez (C)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 weakens offense further.
          \n\u2192 Pirates’ already poor offense is further depleted.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          5. Recent Trends<\/strong><\/h4>\n
            \n
          • \n

            ARI won 1-0 in 11 innings yesterday<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 suggests pitching dominance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Final Custom Score Prediction:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

            ARI 4.8 \u2013 PIT 3.2<\/strong>\u00a0(ARI by ~1.6 runs)<\/p>\n

            \n

            Combined Prediction (AI Models + My Model)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
            \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
            Source<\/th>\nPredicted Score (ARI-PIT)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
            AI Model Avg<\/td>\n5.0 \u2013 3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            My Model<\/td>\n4.8 \u2013 3.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Final Avg<\/strong><\/td>\n4.9 \u2013 3.45<\/strong>\u00a0(ARI by ~1.45 runs)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

            Final Predicted Score<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • Arizona Diamondbacks 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
              \n

              Pick<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                \n
              • Take the Arizona Diamondbacks -117 Moneyline. <\/strong>***LOSE***<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                The\u00a0Arizona Diamondbacks\u00a0and\u00a0Pittsburgh Pirates\u00a0face off in an intriguing\u00a0NL matchup\u00a0on\u00a0July 26, 2025, at PNC Park. While neither team is in playoff contention, this game presents an interesting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27874,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,4082,844,1153,793,1677,4666,1535,827],"class_list":["post-27873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-mlb-prediction","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-arizona-diamondbacks-vs-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-baseball","tag-baseball-analytics","tag-mlb-ai-pick","tag-mlb-betting","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Arizona-Diamondbacks-vs.-Pittsburgh-Pirates.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27873"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28811,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27873\/revisions\/28811"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}