{"id":27774,"date":"2025-07-22T12:36:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T12:36:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=27774"},"modified":"2025-09-07T10:32:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T10:32:01","slug":"pirates-pitching-shines-again-tigers-seek-redemption-in-game-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/pirates-pitching-shines-again-tigers-seek-redemption-in-game-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Pirates\u2019 Pitching Shines Again? Tigers Seek Redemption in Game 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Detroit Tigers (60-41) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-61) face off in the second game of their midweek series at PNC Park on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. After a\u00a03-0 Pirates shutout victory<\/strong>\u00a0in the opener, the Tigers will look to bounce back behind\u00a0Casey Mize<\/strong>, while Pittsburgh aims to ride the momentum with\u00a0Mitch Keller<\/strong>\u00a0on the mound.<\/p>\n

This matchup presents an intriguing contrast\u2014Detroit sits first in the AL Central<\/strong>, making a strong playoff push, while Pittsburgh languishes in\u00a0last place in the NL Central<\/strong>, already looking toward the future. Yet, as Monday\u2019s game showed, the Pirates can\u2019t be overlooked, especially at home where they\u2019ve occasionally played spoiler.<\/p>\n

Key Storylines Heading Into This Game<\/strong><\/h3>\n

1. Tigers Seeking Offensive Rebound<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Detroit\u2019s lineup was\u00a0silenced in Game 1<\/strong>, managing just four hits against Pirates pitching. With key bats like\u00a0Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene<\/strong>\u00a0needing to step up, the Tigers must find a way to solve Mitch Keller, who has been inconsistent but capable of dominant outings.<\/p>\n

2. Pirates\u2019 Pitching Keeps Them Competitive<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Despite their poor record, Pittsburgh\u2019s\u00a0pitching has kept games close<\/strong>, ranking middle-of-the-pack in team ERA. Keller, while not an ace, has shown flashes of brilliance. If he can limit walks and keep Detroit\u2019s power hitters in check, the Pirates could steal another low-scoring win.<\/p>\n

3. Injury Impact on Both Sides<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Detroit is missing\u00a0Kerry Carpenter and Jason Foley<\/strong>, weakening their lineup and bullpen. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is without\u00a0Jared Jones and Endy Rodriguez<\/strong>, two key contributors. How each team adjusts to these absences could swing the game.<\/p>\n

4. Bullpen Fatigue & Late-Game Execution<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Pirates\u2019 relievers were sharp in Game 1, but with a thin bullpen, they may be vulnerable if Keller exits early. Detroit\u2019s pen, while solid, has also been overworked lately.\u00a0Late-inning execution<\/strong>\u00a0could decide this one.<\/p>\n

What to Watch For<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Can the Tigers\u2019 offense wake up after being shut out?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Will Mitch Keller outperform Casey Mize, or will Detroit\u2019s pitching stifle Pittsburgh again?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    How much will injuries impact the game\u2019s outcome?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \n

    AI Model Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Model<\/th>\nTigers Runs<\/th>\nPirates Runs<\/th>\nPredicted Winner<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    BetQL<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    ESPN<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    SportsLine<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    PECOTA<\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    FanGraphs<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Average<\/strong><\/td>\n4.1<\/strong><\/td>\n3.1<\/strong><\/td>\nTigers (4.1-3.1)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
    \n<\/div>\n

    Incorporate My Custom Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    My prediction will use:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Pythagorean Theorem<\/strong>\u00a0(Expected Win % based on runs scored\/allowed)<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Tigers:\u00a0RS = 4.5, RA = 3.7<\/strong>\u00a0\u2192 Win% = 0.596<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Pirates:\u00a0RS = 3.8, RA = 4.9<\/strong>\u00a0\u2192 Win% = 0.380<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Implied Score: Tigers 4.4 – Pirates 3.3<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Strength of Schedule (SoS)<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Tigers (1st in CENT, strong record vs. weak teams)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Pirates (5th in CENT, struggling vs. better teams)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Key Factors:<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Pitching:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              Casey Mize (DET)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Solid ERA (~3.50), better than Keller lately.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Mitch Keller (PIT)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Inconsistent, prone to blowups.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Injuries:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Tigers missing\u00a0Carpenter, Foley<\/strong>\u00a0(key bats\/bullpen arms).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Pirates missing\u00a0Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez<\/strong>\u00a0(hurts lineup\/pitching depth).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                • \n

                  Tigers lost\u00a03-0 yesterday<\/strong>, but offense is due for regression.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Pirates’ bullpen is overworked.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  My Prediction:<\/strong>\u00a0Tigers 4.3 – Pirates 3.2<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n

                  Combine AI Models + My Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                  \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
                  Source<\/th>\nTigers Runs<\/th>\nPirates Runs<\/th>\nWinner<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
                  AI Avg.<\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                  My Model<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\nTigers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                  Final<\/strong><\/td>\n4.2<\/strong><\/td>\n3.15<\/strong><\/td>\nTigers ML<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

                  Final Predicted Score<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • Tigers 4 – Pirates\u00a0 3<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                    \n<\/div>\n

                    Pick<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                      \n
                    • \n

                      Take the Detroit Tigers -128 Moneyline. <\/b>***LOSE***<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                    • \n

                      Key Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • \n

                        Javier B\u00e1ez (probable)<\/strong>\u00a0helps Detroit\u2019s defense.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      • \n

                        Pirates’ lineup lacks power without\u00a0Jared Jones & Rodriguez<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      • \n

                        Mize > Keller<\/strong>\u00a0in current form.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        The Detroit Tigers (60-41) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-61) face off in the second game of their midweek series at PNC Park on Tuesday, July 22,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[1107,793,1677,893,4771,4666,4768,952,4352,827],"class_list":["post-27774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-prediction-mlb","tag-baseball","tag-baseball-analytics","tag-detroit-tigers","tag-detroit-tigers-vs-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-mlb-ai-pick","tag-mlb-ai-prediction","tag-mlb-analysis","tag-mlb-game-forecast","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Detroit-Tigers-vs.-Pittsburgh-Pirates.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27774"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28821,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27774\/revisions\/28821"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}