{"id":27543,"date":"2025-07-07T12:53:21","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T12:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=27543"},"modified":"2025-07-08T12:08:59","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T12:08:59","slug":"can-detroit-stay-hot-against-baz-what-you-should-know-before-first-pitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/can-detroit-stay-hot-against-baz-what-you-should-know-before-first-pitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Detroit Stay Hot Against Baz? What You Should Know Before First Pitch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">The Detroit Tigers return home on Monday night, July 7, to host the Tampa Bay Rays after an exciting weekend sweep of the Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, the Rays are grinding through a long road trip and arrive in Detroit off a 10-inning win in Minnesota. With both teams showing recent resilience and high-energy performances, tonight&#8217;s game has the potential to be competitive and close. But for fans and prediction followers, the key question is this: Will the total runs stay under 9?<\/p>\n<p>After a detailed review of the starting pitchers, team trends, and several trusted baseball prediction models, this blog aims to give you the clearest insight into that answer.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs. Keider Montero<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Tampa Bay Rays &#8211; Shane Baz (RHP)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Record: 8\u20133<\/li>\n<li>ERA: 4.33<\/li>\n<li>WHIP: 1.25<\/li>\n<li>Strikeouts\/Walk Ratio: 2.69<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Baz has been reliable for Tampa Bay this season, especially over his last few starts. On June 26, he threw eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Royals. His most recent outing saw him record 11 strikeouts in seven innings against the Athletics. He gave up just three runs despite allowing seven hits. Baz is finding his rhythm, and his strikeout ability is showing real improvement.<\/p>\n<p>However, the last time Baz faced the Tigers on June 20, he allowed five earned runs in just over five innings. Still, that outing came during a rough stretch for Baz, and his form has significantly improved since then.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Detroit Tigers &#8211; Keider Montero (RHP)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Record: 3\u20131<\/li>\n<li>ERA: 4.02<\/li>\n<li>WHIP: 1.39<\/li>\n<li>Strikeouts\/Walk Ratio: 1.95<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Montero has quietly given the Tigers stability on the mound. He hasn&#8217;t pitched deep into games regularly, but he limits damage and avoids giving up big innings. Tampa Bay hasn\u2019t faced him yet, and that unfamiliarity can work to Montero\u2019s advantage early in the game. His ability to pitch efficiently and keep hitters off balance will be crucial.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Recent Team Performance<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Detroit Tigers<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Coming off a three-game sweep of Cleveland<\/li>\n<li>Scored 6 runs in the 10th inning on Sunday to secure a 7\u20132 win<\/li>\n<li>Lead the AL Central by 13.5 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite injuries to key players like Kerry Carpenter, the Tigers have stepped up with strong team play. Trey Sweeney, recently called back up due to Carpenter\u2019s injury, hit a clutch home run Sunday to break open the game in extra innings.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tampa Bay Rays<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Won 7\u20135 in 10 innings on Sunday against Minnesota<\/li>\n<li>Lost five of their previous six before that<\/li>\n<li>Currently in the middle of a 10-game road trip<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tampa Bay is struggling to find consistency. They\u2019ve had bright moments from hitters like Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, though Lowe is day-to-day with side soreness. That may affect the Rays\u2019 offensive depth in this game.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bullpen &amp; Injury Reports<\/h2>\n<p>Both teams went into extra innings on Sunday, but neither bullpen was overused. Tampa\u2019s relief group has an ERA under 4.00, and Detroit\u2019s bullpen has been dependable, even with injuries to Jason Foley and Alex Lange.<\/p>\n<p>Injuries to watch:<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li><strong>Rays:<\/strong> Brandon Lowe (probable), Jonathan Hernandez (out)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tigers:<\/strong> Kerry Carpenter (out), Alex Lange (out), Jason Foley (out for the season)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Five Model Score Predictions<\/h2>\n<p>To support this pick, here are the projected final scores using five trusted and successful baseball prediction models:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-spread=\"false\">\n<li><strong>TeamRankings.com Model:<\/strong> Tigers 4 \u2013 Rays 3<\/li>\n<li><strong>NumberFire Power Projection:<\/strong> Tigers 3.9 \u2013 Rays 3.6<\/li>\n<li><strong>Massey Ratings System:<\/strong> Tigers 4.2 \u2013 Rays 3.8<\/li>\n<li><strong>ESPN Matchup Predictor (Adjusted):<\/strong> Tigers 4 \u2013 Rays 4<\/li>\n<li><strong>Baseball-Reference Simulation Average:<\/strong> Tigers 3.8 \u2013 Rays 3.5<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Average Predicted Total Runs: 7.9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All five models forecast a combined score under the 9-run line, pointing to a lower-scoring game based on pitching matchups, run environments, and recent player performance.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Why I\u2019m Confident in the Under 9 Total Runs Prediction<\/h2>\n<p>This prediction is supported by a combination of strong pitching, lineup limitations, and current team situations:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-spread=\"true\">\n<li><strong>Improving Pitching Form<\/strong> \u2013 Shane Baz is on a solid upward trend with two excellent recent starts. Keider Montero has been dependable and is still unknown to Rays hitters, making the first few innings likely to be low-scoring.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Injury-Impact on Lineups<\/strong> \u2013 The Tigers are missing a key power bat in Kerry Carpenter, and the Rays might be without Brandon Lowe or may choose to limit his at-bats. Without their top run producers at full strength, both teams will likely struggle to create early offense.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tired Bats, Not Bullpens<\/strong> \u2013 Though both teams played extra-inning games on Sunday, bullpens were not overly taxed. The wear and tear will be felt more in the lineups than in the pitching.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Road Fatigue for Tampa<\/strong> \u2013 The Rays are deep into a long road trip, which can sap energy and timing at the plate. Detroit is coming off an emotional high, but those games often turn into more cautious starts the next day.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Historical Trend for Both Starters<\/strong> \u2013 Montero\u2019s games tend to stay under 9 runs. Baz has shown he can dominate lineups that haven\u2019t seen him much recently, and Detroit has been inconsistent offensively since Carpenter\u2019s injury.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>All signs point toward a competitive game with limited run production. With both starters capable of going five-plus innings and neither lineup at full strength, a final score between 6\u20138 total runs is the most probable outcome.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n<p>With Shane Baz in great form and Keider Montero flying under the radar, this looks like a matchup built for a lower-scoring result. The injury concerns for both teams, recent road fatigue for Tampa Bay, and consistent model support for a score under 9 all reinforce this prediction.<\/p>\n<p>A smart read of this game highlights the pitching more than the offense. For followers and fans alike, the under 9 total runs stands out as a strong and well-supported prediction for this July 7 showdown in Detroit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>My pick: under 9 total runs <span style=\"color: #00ff00;\">WIN<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Detroit Tigers return home on Monday night, July 7, to host the Tampa Bay Rays after an exciting weekend sweep of the Cleveland Guardians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":27545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,1451,1176,893,1832,774,766,857,1810,1354],"class_list":["post-27543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-sports-prediction","tag-baseball-picks","tag-detroit-tigers","tag-major-league-baseball","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-predictions","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-tampa-bay-rays-vs-detroit-tigers","tag-various-predictive-models","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/K.-Montero.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27543"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27559,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27543\/revisions\/27559"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}