{"id":27445,"date":"2025-07-02T12:31:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T12:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=27445"},"modified":"2025-07-12T16:44:25","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T16:44:25","slug":"pirates-cinderella-run-continues-or-will-the-cardinals-finally-wake-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/pirates-cinderella-run-continues-or-will-the-cardinals-finally-wake-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Pirates\u2019 Cinderella Run Continues\u2014Or Will the Cardinals Finally Wake Up?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the\u00a0St. Louis Cardinals<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Pittsburgh Pirates<\/strong>\u00a0prepare to face off on\u00a0July 2, 2025<\/strong>, this midweek matchup carries more weight than a typical divisional game. The Cardinals, sitting at\u00a047-40<\/strong>\u00a0and fighting for playoff positioning, look to avoid a stunning three-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates, who have already taken the first two contests in surprising fashion. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, despite their\u00a037-50<\/strong>\u00a0record and last-place standing, has shown unexpected resilience, shutting out St. Louis in back-to-back games.<\/p>\n

A Tale of Two Teams Heading in Opposite Directions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Cardinals entered this series with momentum, but the Pirates\u2019 pitching staff silenced their bats in\u00a07-0<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a01-0<\/strong>\u00a0victories. Now, St. Louis must regroup behind veteran ace\u00a0Sonny Gray<\/strong>, who brings stability to the mound against Pittsburgh\u2019s\u00a0Mitch Keller<\/strong>. Gray\u2019s ability to dominate weak-hitting lineups could be the antidote to the Cardinals\u2019 recent offensive struggles. On the other side, Keller has been inconsistent this season, but his recent outings suggest he could keep Pittsburgh competitive if he avoids early trouble.<\/p>\n

Key Storylines to Watch<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Will the Cardinals\u2019 Bats Wake Up?<\/strong>\u00a0After being shut out in consecutive games, St. Louis\u2019 offense\u2014featuring stars like\u00a0Paul Goldschmidt<\/strong>\u00a0and (if healthy)\u00a0Nolan Arenado<\/strong>\u2014is due for a breakout.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Pirates\u2019 Bullpen Woes:<\/strong>\u00a0Pittsburgh\u2019s relief corps is decimated by injuries, which could spell trouble if Keller exits early.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Sonny Gray\u2019s Dominance:<\/strong>\u00a0Gray\u2019s elite strikeout ability could exploit a Pirates lineup missing key power threats.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Small Ball vs. Power:<\/strong>\u00a0The Pirates have relied on manufacturing runs, while the Cardinals need their sluggers to deliver in clutch spots.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Injury Impact: Who\u2019s In, Who\u2019s Out?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    The Cardinals are hopeful that\u00a0Arenado<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Willson Contreras<\/strong>\u00a0return to the lineup, as their presence would provide a major boost. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh\u2019s injury list is lengthy, with\u00a0Jared Jones<\/strong>\u00a0and multiple relievers sidelined, potentially forcing them into risky bullpen decisions late in the game.<\/p>\n

    What\u2019s at Stake?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    For the\u00a0Cardinals<\/strong>, this game is about avoiding a disastrous sweep and staying in the NL Wild Card hunt. For the\u00a0Pirates<\/strong>, it\u2019s a chance to play spoiler and build momentum for the second half.<\/p>\n

    As the first pitch approaches, all eyes will be on whether St. Louis can finally solve Pittsburgh\u2019s pitching\u2014or if the Pirates will complete a stunning sweep. One thing is certain: This won\u2019t be a game short on drama.<\/p>\n

    \n

    MLB AI Betting Models’ Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Cardinals:<\/strong>\u00a0~4.2 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Pirates:<\/strong>\u00a0~3.5 runs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Projected Total:<\/strong>\u00a0~7.7 runs (slightly under the 8-run line)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Implied Win Probability:<\/strong>\u00a0Cardinals ~55% (slight edge due to pitching & lineup strength)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \n

      Enhanced Prediction Model (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Key Factors Considered:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      \u2705\u00a0Pythagorean Win Expectation (Run Differential Adjusted)<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Cardinals:<\/strong>\u00a047-40 (expected W-L \u2248 45-42) \u2192 slightly overperforming<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Pirates:<\/strong>\u00a037-50 (expected W-L \u2248 35-52) \u2192 slightly overperforming<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \u2705\u00a0Strength of Schedule (Recent Opponents)<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Cardinals:<\/strong>\u00a0Faced tougher opponents (vs. Pirates’ weaker schedule)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Pirates:<\/strong>\u00a0Recent wins vs. Cardinals, but overall weaker offense<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          \u2705\u00a0Pitching Matchup (Sonny Gray vs. Mitch Keller)<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Sonny Gray (STL):<\/strong>\u00a0Strong ERA (~3.10), high strikeout rate, better recent form<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Mitch Keller (PIT):<\/strong>\u00a0Decent but inconsistent (~4.00 ERA), prone to blowups<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            \u2705\u00a0Injuries & Lineup Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              Cardinals:<\/strong>\u00a0Nolan Arenado & Willson Contreras (probable) \u2192 big boost if playing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Pirates:<\/strong>\u00a0Missing Jared Jones (SP), multiple relievers \u2192 bullpen vulnerability<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              \u2705\u00a0Recent Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Pirates won last 2 vs. Cardinals (7-0, 1-0), but both were low-scoring<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Cardinals’ offense due for regression to mean (unlikely to be shut out again)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Final Adjusted Prediction<\/strong><\/h4>\n
                  \n
                • \n

                  Cardinals:<\/strong>\u00a04.5 runs<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Pirates:<\/strong>\u00a03.1 runs<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Projected Total:<\/strong>\u00a07.6 runs (Lean Under 8)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Moneyline Value:<\/strong>\u00a0Cardinals (better pitching, lineup due for positive regression)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  \n

                  Consensus vs. Our Model<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                  \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
                  Model<\/th>\nCardinals Runs<\/th>\nPirates Runs<\/th>\nTotal<\/th>\nRecommended Play<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
                  AI Models Avg<\/strong><\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n7.7<\/td>\nSlight Under 8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                  Our Model<\/strong><\/td>\n4.5<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n7.6<\/td>\nUnder 8, Cardinals ML<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                  Final Consensus<\/strong><\/td>\n4.3<\/strong><\/td>\n3.3<\/strong><\/td>\n7.6<\/strong><\/td>\nUNDER 8 (-110), Cardinals ML (-140)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
                  \n

                  Pick:<\/h3>\n
                    \n
                  • Take St. Louis Cardinals -123 Moneyline. <\/strong>***LOSE***<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                    As the\u00a0St. Louis Cardinals\u00a0and\u00a0Pittsburgh Pirates\u00a0prepare to face off on\u00a0July 2, 2025, this midweek matchup carries more weight than a typical divisional game. The Cardinals, sitting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27446,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,793,1220,4032,1535,4352,827,913,1069],"class_list":["post-27445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-baseball","tag-mlb-ai-picks","tag-mlb-ai-predictions","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-game-forecast","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-st-louis-cardinals-vs-pittsburgh-pirates","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/St.-Louis-Cardinals-vs.-Pittsburgh-Pirates.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27445"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27445\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27667,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27445\/revisions\/27667"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}