{"id":26217,"date":"2025-05-10T13:08:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-10T13:08:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=26217"},"modified":"2025-05-12T12:48:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T12:48:13","slug":"nba-playoffs-game-3-preview-can-the-knicks-take-a-commanding-3-0-lead-over-the-celtics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/nba-playoffs-game-3-preview-can-the-knicks-take-a-commanding-3-0-lead-over-the-celtics\/","title":{"rendered":"NBA Playoffs Game 3 Preview: Can the Knicks Take a Commanding 3-0 Lead Over the Celtics?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The\u00a0Boston Celtics<\/strong>\u00a0are in trouble. Down\u00a00-2<\/strong>\u00a0in their second-round series against the\u00a0New York Knicks<\/strong>, they now head to\u00a0Madison Square Garden<\/strong>\u00a0for a must-win\u00a0Game 3<\/strong>\u00a0on\u00a0May 10, 2025<\/strong>. The Knicks, riding high after two gritty wins in Boston, have a chance to push the Celtics to the brink of elimination\u2014something few predicted before this series began.<\/p>\n

With the\u00a0Knicks as +5.5 underdogs at home<\/strong>\u00a0and the\u00a0total set at 206.5<\/strong>, bettors are weighing whether New York can keep defying expectations or if Boston will finally wake up and steal a game on the road.<\/p>\n

Why This Game Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Series Momentum<\/strong>: The Knicks have out-executed the Celtics in clutch moments, with\u00a0Jalen Brunson<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Julius Randle<\/strong>\u00a0leading the charge.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Boston\u2019s Back Against the Wall<\/strong>: No team in NBA history has ever come back from\u00a00-3<\/strong>\u2014making this a near must-win for the Celtics.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Betting Market Moves<\/strong>: The line opened at\u00a0Celtics -4.5<\/strong>\u00a0but moved to\u00a0-5.5<\/strong>, suggesting sharp money on Boston. But do the analytics agree?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Key Factors to Watch<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    Celtics\u2019 Offensive Struggles<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Boston\u2019s usually elite offense has looked stagnant, shooting just\u00a032% from three<\/strong>\u00a0in this series. If\u00a0Sam Hauser (questionable)<\/strong>\u00a0sits, their floor spacing takes another hit.<\/p>\n

    Knicks\u2019 Defense & Home Crowd<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    New York has been\u00a0locking down<\/strong>\u00a0in the playoffs, ranking\u00a02nd in defensive rating<\/strong>. With MSG roaring, the Celtics\u2019 role players must step up under pressure.<\/p>\n

    \n

    NBA AI Betting Models’ Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Model<\/th>\nPredicted Score (BOS-NYK)<\/th>\nSpread Pick<\/th>\nTotal Pick<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    BetQL<\/td>\n102-99 (BOS -3)<\/td>\nBOS -5.5<\/td>\nUnder 206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    ESPN BPI<\/td>\n104-101 (BOS -3)<\/td>\nBOS -5.5<\/td>\nUnder 206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    SportsLine<\/td>\n101-100 (BOS -1)<\/td>\nNYK +5.5<\/td>\nUnder 206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Oddsshark<\/td>\n103-98 (BOS -5)<\/td>\nBOS -5.5<\/td>\nUnder 206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    TeamRankings<\/td>\n100-102 (NYK +2)<\/td>\nNYK +5.5<\/td>\nUnder 206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Average<\/strong><\/td>\n102-100 (BOS -2)<\/strong><\/td>\nLean NYK +5.5<\/strong><\/td>\nStrong Under 206.5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
    \n

    My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Pythagorean Win Expectation<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      Celtics (BOS)<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Points For (PF) = 112.5 | Points Against (PA) = 104.3<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Pythagorean Win % =\u00a0PF^13.91 \/ (PF^13.91 + PA^13.91) = ~70%<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Knicks (NYK)<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          PF = 109.8 | PA = 106.1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Pythagorean Win % =\u00a0~62%<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Injuries & Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Sam Hauser (Questionable)<\/strong>: Key shooter, but Celtics have depth (Pritchard, White can step up).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            NYK Health<\/strong>: Fully healthy, Brunson\/Randle playing at elite levels.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Trends<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              NYK is 6-1 ATS last 7 games.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Celtics playoff games.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Adjusted Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Score Prediction<\/strong>:\u00a0101-100 (NYK Win, but BOS Cover? No\u2014close game favors NYK +5.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Spread Pick<\/strong>:\u00a0NYK +5.5<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Total Pick<\/strong>:\u00a0Under 206.5<\/strong>\u00a0(Both teams top 5 in playoff defense)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                \n

                Consensus Pick (AI Models + My Prediction)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
                Factor<\/th>\nPrediction<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
                Average AI Model Score<\/strong><\/td>\n102-100 (BOS -2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                My Custom Score<\/strong><\/td>\n101-100 (NYK +1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                Final Consensus Score<\/strong><\/td>\n101.5-100 (NYK +1.5)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                Spread Pick (NYK +5.5)<\/strong><\/td>\nStrong Play (4\/5 AI models + my pick favor NYK)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                Total Pick (Under 206.5)<\/strong><\/td>\nVery Strong Play (5\/5 AI models + my pick agree)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
                \n

                Betting Recommendations<\/strong><\/h3>\n
                  \n
                1. \n

                  Spread<\/strong>:\u00a0New York Knicks +5.5 (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • \n

                    Why?<\/em>\u00a0Celtics haven\u2019t covered in series yet, NYK home crowd, tight game expected.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n

                  • \n

                    Total<\/strong>:\u00a0Under 206.5 (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • \n

                      Why?<\/em> Both teams’ slow pace in the playoffs, elite defenses, and low-scoring trends.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      \n

                      Pick<\/h3>\n
                        \n
                      • Take Under 206.5 total points.<\/strong><\/b> ***LOSE***<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        The\u00a0Boston Celtics\u00a0are in trouble. Down\u00a00-2\u00a0in their second-round series against the\u00a0New York Knicks, they now head to\u00a0Madison Square Garden\u00a0for a must-win\u00a0Game 3\u00a0on\u00a0May 10, 2025. The Knicks,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":26218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[316,2871,105,4312,446,2641,2478,2795,106],"class_list":["post-26217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","tag-basketball","tag-basketball-betting-insights","tag-boston-celtics","tag-boston-celtics-vs-new-york-knicks","tag-nba-analysis","tag-nba-betting-guide","tag-nba-betting-tips","tag-nba-betting-trends","tag-new-york-knicks","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Boston-Celtics-vs.-New-York-Knicks.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26217"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26291,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26217\/revisions\/26291"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}