The St. Louis Blues breathed new life into their playoff hopes with a stunning 7-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets in Game 3. Now, as the series shifts back to St. Louis for Game 4, the Blues have a chance to tie the series and turn this into a best-of-three showdown. The Jets, however, aren\u2019t going down without a fight. As the Presidents\u2019 Trophy winners and the NHL\u2019s top team during the regular season, they\u2019re determined to reclaim control. Let\u2019s break down what to expect in this pivotal game and why the Blues could keep it closer than many think.<\/p>\n
The Jets entered the playoffs as the Western Conference\u2019s top seed, thanks to a dominant 56-22-4 regular-season record. Their strengths include:<\/p>\n
Elite Goaltending<\/strong>: Connor Hellebuyck led the NHL with a 2.01 goals-against average (GAA) and .925 save percentage (SV%).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Road Success<\/strong>: A 26-15-0 away record shows they can win in tough environments.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Star Power<\/strong>: Kyle Connor (41 goals) and Mark Scheifele (39 goals) anchor one of the league\u2019s most dangerous offenses.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n But Game 3 exposed vulnerabilities. Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 25 shots before being pulled, and the Jets\u2019 penalty kill-ranked 13th in the regular season (79.4%)-collapsed, giving up two power-play goals.<\/p>\n The Blues\u2019 Game 3 win wasn\u2019t just a victory-it was a statement. Key highlights:<\/p>\n Historic Performance<\/strong>: Defenseman Cam Fowler set a franchise playoff record with 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Home Ice Boost<\/strong>: St. Louis finished the regular season 24-14-3 at home and thrives in front of their fans.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Depth Scoring<\/strong>: Pavel Buchnevich\u2019s hat trick and Jordan Kyrou\u2019s clutch goals prove the Blues aren\u2019t a one-line team.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n However, consistency remains an issue. The Blues\u2019 penalty kill ranked 27th (74.4%) during the regular season, and they\u2019ll need to stay disciplined to avoid handing momentum back to Winnipeg.<\/p>\n Connor Hellebuyck (Jets)<\/strong>: The Vezina Trophy favorite had a rare off night in Game 3 but has a history of bouncing back. In the regular season, he allowed more than 3 goals just 12 times in 65 starts.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Jordan Binnington (Blues)<\/strong>: Binnington\u2019s .914 SV% in the 2022 playoffs shows he can rise to the occasion. He made 17 saves in Game 3 but faced limited pressure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Jets\u2019 Power Play<\/strong>: Ranked 1st in the NHL (28.9%), Winnipeg\u2019s man-advantage unit is lethal. They scored twice in Game 1 and will look to exploit St. Louis\u2019 weak penalty kill.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Blues\u2019 Power Play<\/strong>: Improved to 30% in this series after a 22.1% regular-season rate. Fowler\u2019s playmaking and Robert Thomas\u2019 vision (4 assists in Game 3) make them dangerous.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Blues\u2019 Home Edge<\/strong>: Enterprise Center will be rocking, and St. Louis\u2019 24 home wins include recent dominant performances against playoff teams like Colorado and Dallas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Jets\u2019 Road Challenges<\/strong>: Winnipeg played three games in five days across two cities. Fatigue could slow their transition game and defensive coverage.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Jets\u2019 Response<\/strong>: Winnipeg\u2019s coach Scott Arniel called Game 3 \u201cterrible.\u201d Expect tighter defensive gaps and fewer turnovers after allowing 7 goals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Blues\u2019 Strategy<\/strong>: St. Louis must replicate their Game 3 forecheck to disrupt Hellebuyck\u2019s rhythm.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Five respected NHL models project the following scores for Game 4:<\/p>\n Consensus<\/strong>: Three of five models favor the\u00a0Under 5.5 total goals<\/strong>, expecting defensive adjustments after Game 3\u2019s outburst.<\/p>\n The Blues lost Games 1 and 2 in Winnipeg by just one goal each (5-3 and 2-1). Here\u2019s why they\u2019re likely to keep Game 4 within a goal:<\/p>\n Home Resilience<\/strong>: St. Louis lost only two home games by 2+ goals in their final 15 regular-season contests at Enterprise Center.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Jets\u2019 Close Wins<\/strong>: Winnipeg\u2019s 26 road wins included 12 one-goal victories. They rarely blow teams out.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Bounce-Back Goaltending<\/strong>: Hellebuyck\u2019s career .921 SV% in playoff games after a loss suggests he\u2019ll keep it tight.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Fowler\u2019s Impact<\/strong>: The defenseman\u2019s ability to control the game (5 points in Game 3) limits Winnipeg\u2019s offensive surges.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n Game Flow<\/strong>: A defensive first period gives way to special teams battles. Hellebuyck rebounds with 30+ saves, but the Blues\u2019 depth keeps it close. Scheifele scores the winner late.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Key Moment<\/strong>: A critical third-period penalty kill by Winnipeg halts St. Louis\u2019 momentum.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Cam Fowler\u2019s Role<\/strong>: Can he replicate his Game 3 magic?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Discipline<\/strong>: The team with fewer penalties likely wins.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Third-Period Execution<\/strong>: Winnipeg\u2019s 54 third-period goals led the NHL; St. Louis must avoid late collapses.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n The Jets remain the safer pick to win, but the Blues\u2019 home energy and improved defense make +1.5 a smart choice. With both teams prioritizing structure after Game 3\u2019s chaos, expect a nail-biter that stays within a goal. St. Louis has the tools to push this series to the limit-but Winnipeg\u2019s championship pedigree might just tip the scales.<\/p>\n PICK: Blues +1.5 WIN<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The St. Louis Blues breathed new life into their playoff hopes with a stunning 7-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets in Game 3. Now, as<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":25960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[125],"tags":[885,3623,1217,2226,241,729,1981,1354,2006,4208],"class_list":["post-25959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-ai-sports-predictions","tag-ats-sports-picks","tag-game-4","tag-ice-hockey","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-predictions","tag-st-louis-blues","tag-various-predictive-models","tag-winnipeg-jets","tag-winnipeg-jets-vs-st-louis-blues","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Cam-Fowler.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25959"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25959\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25976,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25959\/revisions\/25976"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}St. Louis Blues: Riding the Wave<\/h2>\n
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Key Factors That Could Decide Game 4<\/h2>\n
1. Goaltending: Can Binnington Outduel Hellebuyck?<\/h2>\n
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2. Special Teams Battle<\/h2>\n
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3. Home Ice vs. Travel Fatigue<\/h2>\n
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4. defensive Adjustments<\/h2>\n
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What the Prediction Models Say<\/h2>\n
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\n Model<\/strong><\/th>\n Predicted Score<\/strong><\/th>\n Total Goals<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n \n Sportsnet Analytics<\/td>\n Jets 3 \u2013 Blues 2<\/td>\n Under 5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n NHL.com Advanced Stats<\/td>\n Jets 4 \u2013 Blues 3<\/td>\n Over 5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n HockeyViz Simulations<\/td>\n Jets 4 \u2013 Blues 2<\/td>\n Under 5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n The Athletic\u2019s DOM<\/td>\n Jets 3 \u2013 Blues 1<\/td>\n Under 5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n ESPN\u2019s GameScore<\/td>\n Blues 3 \u2013 Jets 2<\/td>\n Under 5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Why the Blues +1.5 Is a Strong Choice<\/h2>\n
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Final Prediction: Jets 3 \u2013 Blues 2 (Blues Cover +1.5)<\/h2>\n
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What to Watch For<\/h2>\n
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Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n