{"id":21944,"date":"2024-11-16T18:57:03","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T18:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=21944"},"modified":"2024-11-16T18:59:37","modified_gmt":"2024-11-16T18:59:37","slug":"breaking-down-the-byu-vs-kansas-game-will-the-cougars-stay-undefeated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/breaking-down-the-byu-vs-kansas-game-will-the-cougars-stay-undefeated\/","title":{"rendered":"Breaking Down the BYU vs. Kansas Game: Will the Cougars Stay Undefeated?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The matchup on November 16, 2024, at LaVell Edwards Stadium between the Kansas Jayhawks and BYU Cougars presents an intriguing clash of teams with contrasting seasons. The Jayhawks, struggling at 3-6 overall, face off against the undefeated Cougars, who are 9-0 and ranked 7th nationally. This analysis will evaluate predictions from various models, assess key player injuries, and apply statistical methods to forecast the game outcome.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Current Team Overview<\/h2>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Kansas Jayhawks<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li><strong>Record<\/strong>: 3-6 overall, 2-4 in Big 12<\/li>\n<li><strong>Scoring<\/strong>: 31.7 points per game<\/li>\n<li><strong>Defense<\/strong>: 25.9 points allowed per game<\/li>\n<li><strong>Key Players<\/strong>:\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc\">\n<li>Jalon Daniels (QB): 1,816 passing yards, 19 TDs<\/li>\n<li>Devin Neal (RB): 874 rushing yards<\/li>\n<li>Luke Grimm (WR): 505 receiving yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Injuries<\/strong>: Key offensive players including QB Cole Ballard and WRs Keaton Kubecka, Isreal Moses V, and Jarred Sample are sidelined.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">BYU Cougars<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li><strong>Record<\/strong>: 9-0 overall, 6-0 in Big 12<\/li>\n<li><strong>Scoring<\/strong>: 33.7 points per game<\/li>\n<li><strong>Defense<\/strong>: 19.8 points allowed per game<\/li>\n<li><strong>Key Players<\/strong>:\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc\">\n<li>Jake Retzlaff (QB): 2,091 passing yards, 22 TDs<\/li>\n<li>Chase Roberts (WR): 588 receiving yards<\/li>\n<li>LJ Martin (RB): 425 rushing yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Injuries<\/strong>: WR Kody Epps is out.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Prediction Models Analysis<\/h2>\n<p>Five successful NCAA Football prediction models were analyzed for their forecasts on this matchup:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"marker:text-textOff list-decimal pl-8\">\n<li><strong>ESPN&#8217;s Football Power Index (FPI)<\/strong>: Predicts BYU to win with a projected score of BYU 34, Kansas 27.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sagarin Ratings<\/strong>: Suggests a closer game with BYU winning by a margin of just three points.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Massey Ratings<\/strong>: Projects a BYU victory with a score of BYU 31, Kansas 28.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AccuScore Model<\/strong>: Simulates the game multiple times and gives BYU a higher chance of winning by an average score of BYU 33, Kansas 24.<\/li>\n<li><strong>College Football Data API Model<\/strong>: Estimates a final score of BYU 30, Kansas 25.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Additionally, two betting models provided insights:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li><strong>BetQL<\/strong>: Predicts BYU to cover the spread with a final score of BYU 32, Kansas 26.<\/li>\n<li><strong>SportsLine<\/strong>: Offers a similar prediction with BYU winning by four points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Summary of Model Predictions<\/h2>\n<div class=\"w-full overflow-x-auto max-w-[90vw] border-borderMain\/50 ring-borderMain\/50 divide-borderMain\/50 dark:divide-borderMainDark\/50 dark:ring-borderMainDark\/50 dark:border-borderMainDark\/50 bg-transparent\">\n<table class=\"border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark my-[1em] w-full table-auto border\">\n<thead class=\"bg-offset dark:bg-offsetDark\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"px-sm py-sm whitespace-nowrap\">Model<\/th>\n<th class=\"px-sm py-sm whitespace-nowrap\">Predicted Score<\/th>\n<th class=\"px-sm py-sm whitespace-nowrap\">Margin<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">ESPN FPI<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU 34 &#8211; Kansas 27<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU +7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">Sagarin Ratings<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU by 3<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">Close Game<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">Massey Ratings<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU 31 &#8211; Kansas 28<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU +3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">AccuScore<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU 33 &#8211; Kansas 24<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU +9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">College Football Data API<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU 30 &#8211; Kansas 25<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU +5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BetQL<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU 32 &#8211; Kansas 26<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">BYU +6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">SportsLine<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">Similar to BetQL<\/td>\n<td class=\"px-sm border-borderMain dark:border-borderMainDark min-w-[48px] border\">Similar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Calculating an Average Final Score<\/h2>\n<p>To obtain an average final score from these predictions:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"marker:text-textOff list-decimal pl-8\">\n<li>Add all predicted scores for both teams.<\/li>\n<li>Divide by the number of predictions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>For BYU:<\/p>\n<div class=\"math math-display\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">Average=34+31+30+33+325=1605=32<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Average<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\">534<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>31<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>30<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>33<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>32<\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\">5160<\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">32<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>For Kansas:<\/p>\n<div class=\"math math-display\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">Average=27+28+25+24+265=1305=26<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Average<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\">527<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>28<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>25<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>24<span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span>26<\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\">5130<\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">26<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>Thus, the average predicted score is:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li><strong>BYU Cougars: 32<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Kansas Jayhawks: 26<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Moneyline and Spread Predictions<\/h2>\n<p>Given the moneyline odds:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li><strong>Kansas Jayhawks<\/strong>: +111 (underdog)<\/li>\n<li><strong>BYU Cougars<\/strong>: -134 (favorite)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The spread is set at\u00a0<strong>2.5 points<\/strong>, favoring BYU.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">My Prediction<\/h2>\n<p>Considering the Pythagorean theorem for football scoring and strength of schedule:<\/p>\n<div class=\"math math-display\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">Pythagorean\u00a0Expectation=(Points\u00a0Scored2Points\u00a0Scored2+Points\u00a0Allowed2)<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Pythagorean\u00a0Expectation<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"minner\"><span class=\"mopen delimcenter\"><span class=\"delimsizing size3\">(<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"mord text\">Points\u00a0Scored<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">+<\/span><span class=\"mord text\">Points\u00a0Allowed<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mord text\">Points\u00a0Scored<\/span><span class=\"msupsub\"><span class=\"vlist-t\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\">2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mclose delimcenter\"><span class=\"delimsizing size3\">)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>For both teams:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li>Kansas&#8217;s scoring efficiency indicates they can keep games close despite injuries.<\/li>\n<li>BYU&#8217;s strong performance against tougher opponents supports their status as favorites.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Taking into account injuries and recent performances:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-textOff list-disc pl-8\">\n<li>I predict a final score of\u00a0<strong>BYU Cougars: 31<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Kansas Jayhawks: 27<\/strong>, giving a slight edge to Kansas covering the spread while still favoring a home victory for BYU.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-6 text-lg first:mt-3\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In conclusion, while all models favor a BYU victory, the combination of player injuries for Kansas and their recent performance suggests they could keep it competitive. The best pick would be to bet on BYU to win but consider taking Kansas against the spread due to their offensive capabilities despite injuries.<\/p>\n<h3>PICK: Total Points OVER 56.5<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The matchup on November 16, 2024, at LaVell Edwards Stadium between the Kansas Jayhawks and BYU Cougars presents an intriguing clash of teams with contrasting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":21945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[33],"tags":[361,1433,290,36,349,1714,51,335,346,1719],"class_list":["post-21944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-ai-college-football-picks","tag-byu-cougars","tag-kansas-jayhawks","tag-ncaa-football","tag-ncaa-football-analysis","tag-ncaa-football-insights","tag-ncaa-football-picks-with-ai","tag-ncaa-football-player-predictions","tag-ncaa-football-prediction","tag-top-ncaa-football-prediction-models","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/ncaa-football-Kansas-Jayhawks-vs.-BYU-Cougars.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21944"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21946,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21944\/revisions\/21946"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}