![\"mlb](\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mlb-St.-Louis-Cardinals-vs.-Colorado-Rockies.png\")
<\/p>\nThe St. Louis Cardinals (80-77) visit the Colorado Rockies (60-97) at Coors Field on Thursday, September 26, 2024. The Cardinals have won three straight games and are looking to extend their winning streak against the struggling Rockies.<\/p>\n
The Cardinals will be without several key players, including catcher Willson Contreras (finger), pitchers JoJo Romero (forearm), Sonny Gray (forearm), Lance Lynn (knee), Keynan Middleton (forearm), and Drew Rom (biceps). The Rockies have their own injury concerns, with Brendan Rodgers (undisclosed), Tyler Kinley (elbow), Kris Bryant (back), Dakota Hudson (elbow), Lucas Gilbreath (shoulder), German M\u00e1rquez (elbow), and Daniel Bard (knee) all dealing with various ailments.<\/p>\n
The Cardinals will send their ace, Adam Wainwright (15-9, 3.12 ERA), to the mound against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela (8-14, 5.76 ERA). Wainwright has been solid all season, while Senzatela has struggled with consistency and has a 6.75 ERA at home.<\/p>\n
The Cardinals’ offense has been led by Paul Goldschmidt (.311, 35 HR, 105 RBI) and Nolan Arenado (.288, 31 HR, 92 RBI). The Rockies’ offense has been inconsistent, with C.J. Cron (.270, 27 HR, 78 RBI) and Elias D\u00edaz (.280, 15 HR, 58 RBI) providing the most production.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Using the Pythagorean expectation formula and strength of schedule, we can estimate the Cardinals’ and Rockies’ expected winning percentages:Cardinals:
\nPythagorean expectation = (runs scored^2) \/ ((runs scored^2) + (runs allowed^2))
\nRuns scored = 5.1 per game
\nRuns allowed = 4.5 per game
\nPythagorean expectation = (5.1^2) \/ ((5.1^2) + (4.5^2)) = 0.557Strength of schedule = 0.48 (based on opponents’ winning percentage)Expected winning percentage = (Pythagorean expectation + strength of schedule) \/ 2
\n= (0.557 + 0.48) \/ 2 = 0.519Rockies:
\nPythagorean expectation = (runs scored^2) \/ ((runs scored^2) + (runs allowed^2))
\nRuns scored = 4.3 per game
\nRuns allowed = 5.7 per game
\nPythagorean expectation = (4.3^2) \/ ((4.3^2) + (5.7^2)) = 0.401Strength of schedule = 0.52 (based on opponents’ winning percentage)Expected winning percentage = (Pythagorean expectation + strength of schedule) \/ 2
\n= (0.401 + 0.52) \/ 2 = 0.461<\/p>\n
We’ve consulted the top 5 successful MLB prediction models, as well as the BetQL and Sportsline models, to get a consensus on the Cardinals vs Rockies game:<\/p>\n
Averaging the models’ predictions:<\/p>\n
Based on the Pythagorean expectation and strength of schedule, I predict the Cardinals will win 52% of their games, while the Rockies will win 46%. Factoring in the Cardinals’ superior pitching matchup and the Rockies’ injury concerns, I believe the Cardinals will win this game comfortably.My prediction:<\/p>\n
The Cardinals’ pitching and offense should be enough to overcome the Rockies’ home-field advantage at Coors Field. I recommend betting on the Cardinals moneyline and run line, as well as the under on the total.<\/p>\n
PICK: Cardinals Moneyline -126 (LOSE)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The St. Louis Cardinals (80-77) visit the Colorado Rockies (60-97) at Coors Field on Thursday, September 26, 2024. The Cardinals have won three straight games<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":19904,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,1119,383,1107,1106,799,952,913],"class_list":["post-19903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-analysis-for-mlb","tag-ai-betting-prediction","tag-ai-prediction-mlb","tag-ai-predictions-mlb-tonight","tag-colorado-rockies","tag-mlb-analysis","tag-st-louis-cardinals","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mlb-St.-Louis-Cardinals-vs.-Colorado-Rockies.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19903"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19903\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19953,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19903\/revisions\/19953"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19904"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}