{"id":17395,"date":"2024-07-23T11:40:18","date_gmt":"2024-07-23T11:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=17395"},"modified":"2024-07-25T16:53:11","modified_gmt":"2024-07-25T16:53:11","slug":"giants-vs-dodgers-will-stats-or-streaks-determine-victor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/giants-vs-dodgers-will-stats-or-streaks-determine-victor\/","title":{"rendered":"Giants vs. Dodgers: Will Stats or Streaks Determine Victor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:346\">Don&#8217;t miss out on the $1000 Countdown to Kickoff Giveaway\u2014enter now for your chance to win big! Click here to learn more <a href=\"https:\/\/ATSwins.ai\/blog\/kickoff-giveaway\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/ATSwins.ai\/blog\/kickoff-giveaway<\/a><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:346\">Matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers promises to be a battle, with both teams boasting strong offenses despite facing injury woes. To make the most informed pick, let&#8217;s analyze various prediction models, Pythagorean theory, strength of schedule, and current trends.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:346\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-17367\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/mlb-Giants-vs-Dodgers.png\" alt=\"mlb Giants vs Dodgers\" width=\"597\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/mlb-Giants-vs-Dodgers.png 692w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/mlb-Giants-vs-Dodgers-600x214.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/mlb-Giants-vs-Dodgers-300x107.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 597px) 100vw, 597px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:18\"><strong>Injury Report:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"7:1-9:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:144\"><strong>Giants:<\/strong> Catcher Tom Murphy, starting pitchers Keaton Winn, Robbie Ray, and Alex Cobb, relievers Tristan Beck and Ethan Small are all out.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"8:1-9:0\"><strong>Dodgers:<\/strong> Shortstop Mookie Betts and starting pitcher Walker Buehler are sidelined. Relief pitchers Ryan Brasier, Connor Brogdon, Michael Grove are also unavailable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"10:1-10:96\">These missing players, particularly Mookie Betts for the Dodgers, impact offensive capabilities.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"12:1-12:22\"><strong>Prediction Models:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"14:1-14:83\">We&#8217;ll consult five successful MLB prediction models alongside BetQL and SportsLine:<\/p>\n<ol data-sourcepos=\"16:1-23:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"16:1-16:50\"><strong>Dimers:<\/strong> Dodgers with a 55% win probability.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:65\"><strong>SportsChatPlace:<\/strong> Not available yet for this specific game.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"18:1-18:42\"><strong>The Win Forecast:<\/strong> Dodgers favored.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:112\"><strong>Baseball Reference:<\/strong> Uses Pythagorean expectation (runs scored vs. runs allowed) &#8211; to be calculated later.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"20:1-20:59\"><strong>Fangraphs:<\/strong> Not available yet for this specific game.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:50\"><strong>BetQL:<\/strong> Leaning Dodgers with a slight edge.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"22:1-23:0\"><strong>SportsLine:<\/strong> Dodgers with a 53% win probability.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"24:1-24:55\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule (SOS):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"26:1-26:345\">The Pythagorean theorem estimates a team&#8217;s win-loss record based on runs scored and allowed. We&#8217;ll need the Giants&#8217; and Dodgers&#8217; current run data to calculate this. Additionally, factoring in Strength of Schedule (SOS) provides a more nuanced picture. The Dodgers have arguably faced a tougher schedule, potentially inflating their allowed runs.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"26:1-26:345\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-17396\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/San-Francisco-Giants-@-Los-Angeles-Dodgers.png\" alt=\"San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers\" width=\"592\" height=\"325\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/San-Francisco-Giants-@-Los-Angeles-Dodgers.png 637w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/San-Francisco-Giants-@-Los-Angeles-Dodgers-600x330.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/San-Francisco-Giants-@-Los-Angeles-Dodgers-300x165.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 592px) 100vw, 592px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:28\"><strong>Putting it All Together:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"35:1-35:173\">Based on the prediction models, the Dodgers seem favored with a slight edge. However, the Giants&#8217; pitching depth could be a factor considering the Dodgers&#8217; bullpen injuries.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"37:1-37:28\"><strong>Here&#8217;s the Average Pick:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"39:1-41:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"39:1-39:222\"><strong>Average Win Probability:<\/strong> (Dodgers&#8217; Probability from Each Source) \/ (Number of Sources) = (55% + Slight Edge + Favored + ? + 53%) \/ 7 (waiting on Baseball Reference) = Likely skews towards the Dodgers (around 55-60%).<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"40:1-41:0\"><strong>Run Prediction:<\/strong> Using Pythagorean theorem with each team&#8217;s season data and adjusting for SOS will provide a more specific prediction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"42:1-42:12\"><strong>My Take:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"44:1-44:161\">While the Dodgers appear favored, the Giants&#8217; pitching depth shouldn&#8217;t be underestimated. The final score will likely be a close one. Here&#8217;s a possible scenario:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"46:1-48:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"46:1-46:52\"><strong>Dodgers:<\/strong> 5 Runs (accounting for missing Betts)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"47:1-48:0\"><strong>Giants:<\/strong> 4 Runs (accounting for recent struggles)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>PICK: OVER 8.5 &#8211; LOSE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t miss out on the $1000 Countdown to Kickoff Giveaway\u2014enter now for your chance to win big! Click here to learn more https:\/\/ATSwins.ai\/blog\/kickoff-giveaway Matchup between<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":17396,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,634,499,855,774,838,872,766,615,798],"class_list":["post-17395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-predictions","tag-free-pick","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-game-prediction","tag-mlb-prediction","tag-mlb-predictions","tag-prediction-models","tag-san-francisco-giants","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/San-Francisco-Giants-@-Los-Angeles-Dodgers.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17395"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17395\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17430,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17395\/revisions\/17430"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17396"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}